On Thu, 28 Oct 2010 06:44:33 -0700, "a425couple"
wrote:

In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination
(for fuller background, read the below).

If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

There have been at least two P-3 ditchings.

One was in the North Pacific after a "prop fails to feather" emergency
(a VERY serious failure in a P-3). They frequently lead to engine
fires, which is what happened here.

http://www.vpnavy.com/vp9586.html

I did not, in quick search, find a the story but I'm sure some time
with Google will turn it up. It was written up at least in APPROACH
in years past.

One was in the Gulf:

http://www.vpnavy.com/vp47ditch.html

Ditching at sea is a very dicey proposition if the aircraft is
undamaged and easily controlable. With major airframe damage it's not
something I'd look forward to. Further, the A/C did not KNOW what his
status actually was. For all he knew a wing was going to fall off
without much warning. So picking even a potentially hostile airfield
was probably the wisest choice under the circumstances.

An ASW crew is smaller than an ELINT crew so there is the question of
egress.

The P-3 is a nice aircraft to fly with boosted controlls. Boost out
it's a real chore to keep it under control.