On 9 May 2006 07:26:35 -0700, "Kingfish" wrote:

I'd read several references about Cirrus developing the P-Jet, which I
assume would seat four including pilot. This got me thinking about
other segments they might explore. Considering the success of their
SR20 & SR22 series, what are the chances of a SR-derived twin?

It would be great to see more light twins in the market, especially
more fuel efficient ones, but I don't think Cirrus will develop a
twin. Here is why.

In my mind, people buy twins for a few reasons:
#1. Safety (whether real or perceived)
#2. Useful load / size
#3. Coolness factor
#4. Performance improvement over single

For Cirrus to develop a twin, they would have to tap a market large
enough to offset their development costs.

Refering to the above points (wrt to market).
#1. Cirrus already is capturing a big chunk of the safety market b/c
of the chute. Personally, I would rather have two engines, but there
are a lot of pilots (and spouses) who like the chute.

#2. Useful load/cabin space. The twin will always be able to haul
more, but Cirrus could introduce a 6 seat single with a bigger engine
(310-350hp) to cover part of this requirement.

#3. Coolness factor. Two props is cool, but so is a glass plane and
cockpit. Of course, I guess two props, a glass plane, and glass panel
would be coolest then!

#4. Performance improvement. The SR22 is already pretty fast -
faster than most singles. They could add turbo (instead of another
engine) to get another 20-30 kts to compete against the light twins
speed and climb.

Because the SR22 is such a capable plane, I think that the available
increase in market to Cirrus for developing an SR-twin is quite small.
Since the Baron, Seneca, AdamA500, and DiamondTwin are in production,
and are all capable planes, it would make for tough competition.

I would love to be proven wrong, and see Cirrus or Lancair introduce
something at Oshkosh, but I think both of these companies are better
(financially) to focus on derivatives of their current product line
than introducing a new product.