On Tue, 18 Dec 2007 08:42:11 -0700, Fred J. McCall
wrote:

One more time. Airplanes don't 'rust'.

Indeed? They they were lying to me in Corrosion Control School about
what we had to do to maintain the steel parts of the venerable S-2E/G?


::SSNs make great minelayers. So do some long range aircraft (but with
::some pretty obvious limitations).
::
:
:And when the other guy notices you mining international waters?
:
:With aircraft he likely will (buy maybe not). With SSNs he likely
:won't (but maybe will).
:

Which still doesn't address the question.

Sure it does. Maybe the minelayer will be noticed and maybe not. THAT
IS an answer, if not a definitive one.


Perhaps you should read them again and figure out just what it is that
you're supporting here.

I support nothing, just add my own comments. Reat that any way you
like.

:History is on his side; the Russian Navy has never been a substantial
:factor for them (except maybe the battleship POTEMPKIN (SP) or some
:units during Russian Revolution). The one time they did try a big op
:they got whupped at Tsushima (sp). During the Cold War ADM Gorshakov
:had enough "juice" to get the state to spring for a real, blue water
:navy but I don't see anybody playing that role at present (although
:someone could emerge).

History has nothing to do with capability. There is a big difference
between not doing something and not being able to do something. Tanky
is arguing the latter.

Go back and re-read your Mahan. It has a LOT to do with capability.

:They could go back to a big sub fleet again and that would have some
:intersting consequences for us (S-4A, anyone?).

Already going to have P-8s.

Indeed.

:The Russians right now are sitting on a mountain of petro dollars.
:They look like they're willing to spend a bunch on re-establishing a
:naval presence beyond the littoral waters. How much or for how long
:is open to question. Geography does not favor them as a naval power,
:but it may be less of an issue that it used to be (given higher sea
:temps and less ice in ports).

It's not even an issue of geography. Do they have any NEED to be a
naval power?

I dunno. Ask Putin.

Wanting a carrier force (where this started) indicates a
desire for power projection (which would be a Russian interest). It
doesn't necessarily indicate a desire or a need for a balanced navy.

The issue of balance, again, is one that lies with Putin. Maybe he'll
spend the time and money and lives and maybe he won't.

:Only Putin knows for sure what he'll likely do in this arena.
:

He probably doesn't know, either.

I suspect he knows what he wants.