On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 7:54:59 PM UTC-4, Andy Blackburn wrote:
Not to over-engage in statistical analysis...

Thanks for being analytical, Andy. It encourages us to think rationally about the risks of soaring. You started early, too, and have been through this before. I soloed in 1965 but it was 15 years before someone I knew was killed in a glider crash. In the 38 years since, another 14 have died. Does that mean soaring has gotten more risky? Or have I just met a lot more people in the sport over the years? Are older, more experienced pilots more prone to fatal mistakes? Or--more than less-experienced pilots--are they just exposed to more hours, more types of risks, more chances to make a small mistake that becomes a big mistake?

This year does seem to be worse, but I recall other years where the same thing seemed to be happening. Ours is a tiny sport. One or two accidents can swing the "trend" but aren't necessarily statistically significant.

Saying that this year is within the norm is not the same as saying we don't have a problem. On the other hand, recognizing that soaring will always be riskier than most things we do isn't necessarily a reason to stop doing it..

Just my opinion.

Chip Bearden
67 years old, 53 years/3000 hours in soaring, 15 friends/acquaintances dead in gliding accidents