wrote:

On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 21:27:54 -0500, Bob Noel
wrote:


On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 17:16:35 -0800, Ron Garret
wrote:


That's true, but the longer you fly (or play the lottery) the closer
your probability of experiencing an engine failure (or a lottery win)
some time your career approaches 1.

Of course, you might have to fly/play for a *very* long time before that
probability actually gets close to 1, but sooner or later it will be 1
to any desired degree of accuracy. So the statement "fly long enough and
you will experience an engine failure" is pretty close to being true.
The question is how long is "long enough."

rg


This just ain't so.

Every time you play the lottery, it's like the first time you ever
played it.

It doesn't matter whether you won a jillion yesterday, or haven't won
in 50 years, or never played. The odds are exactly the same.

The odds of winning any particular lottery are (approximately) the same.

The odds of winning a lottery sometime in your lifetime are much better if you
play the lottery every day of your life (assuming a nice long life) than if you
just play the lottery once.

--
Bob Noel
looking for a sig the lawyers will like


Approximately? They are exactly the same.

Of course your odds of having an engine failure with two engines is
double of what it would be with one, and quadruple with four.

No, because the engines aren't completely independent of each other.
Most have at least one common system (fuel).

Matt