Aviation Dilemma 101 - How much trust in a 10 day forecast??

I"m lookin' at going to Oshkosh towards the end of the show - Thursday
through Sunday. Right now, the weather channel is predicting a pretty good
chance of rain in Wisconsin on Thursday and Friday and is predicting similar
weather for the first couple hundred miles North heading out of Atlanta.

Soooo... Do I bank on the 10 day forcast being way off base, or do I bet on
the forecast, make a drastic change in plans and head to Osh at the
beginning of the week, which looks more favorable from a weather standpoint?

Decisions, decisions...

KB

Kyle Boatright wrote:

snip
Soooo... Do I bank on the 10 day forcast being way off base, or do I bet on
the forecast, make a drastic change in plans and head to Osh at the
beginning of the week, which looks more favorable from a weather standpoint?

Regarding long term forecasts, an optimist assumes a 30% level of accuracy
and an pessimist assumes 90%. Who are you?



--
Peter

Generally weather is considered a "forecast" 8 hours out. Between 8 and
12 hours is an "educated guess". Anything beyond is worth little for
aviation.
I never cancel a trip until an hour before the trip. That includes long
trips down into Mexico, etc. 9 times of out 10 the forecast is wrong
and the weather ends up being different than forcast anyway. I try to
ignore weather reports the week before a large trip because they're not
worth stressing about. The weather will be what it is.
It never seems to amaze me how often my fellow pilots cancel trips the
day before and the weather ends up being awesome.

-Robert, CFII


Kyle Boatright wrote:
I"m lookin' at going to Oshkosh towards the end of the show - Thursday
through Sunday. Right now, the weather channel is predicting a pretty good
chance of rain in Wisconsin on Thursday and Friday and is predicting similar
weather for the first couple hundred miles North heading out of Atlanta.

Soooo... Do I bank on the 10 day forcast being way off base, or do I bet on
the forecast, make a drastic change in plans and head to Osh at the
beginning of the week, which looks more favorable from a weather standpoint?

Decisions, decisions...

KB

My experience... anything beyond 48 hours is beyond belief.

On Wed, 19 Jul 2006 22:02:59 GMT, john smith wrote:

My experience... anything beyond 48 hours is beyond belief.

Would depend on time of year, wouldn't it? Equinoctial weather is
changeable; Around the solstices, airmasses tend to be more stable.

Don

Kyle Boatright wrote:
I"m lookin' at going to Oshkosh towards the end of the show - Thursday
through Sunday. Right now, the weather channel is predicting

A 10 day forecast is a horoscope with numbers.

Michael

"Kyle Boatright" wrote in message
. ..
Soooo... Do I bank on the 10 day forcast being way off base, or do I bet
on the forecast, make a drastic change in plans and head to Osh at the
beginning of the week, which looks more favorable from a weather
standpoint?

As others said, you can't even count on a 5-day forecast, never mind a
10-day.

Beyond that, all the usual GA rules apply. If you *have* to be there, you
need to allow for delays by planning to get there early. If you can afford
to cancel the trip altogether and don't want to show up too early, then plan
for an arrival at your preferred date and time.

You *might* be able to wait until the beginning of the week and base your
decision on the somewhat more usable 5-day forecast. But I refer you to my
first sentence of this post.

Pete

In article ,
Don Tuite wrote:

On Wed, 19 Jul 2006 22:02:59 GMT, john smith wrote:

My experience... anything beyond 48 hours is beyond belief.

Would depend on time of year, wouldn't it? Equinoctial weather is
changeable; Around the solstices, airmasses tend to be more stable.

Not that I can think of.
This summer's weather pattern is identical to last year's.
There is an upper level High centered over the Four-Corners area that
has been there for a couple of weeks and looks like it is going to stay
there for a couple more.
The jetstream is flowing east-west across southern Canada, contributing
to the drought and high temperatures in the North Coast states.

On 7/19/06 5:40 PM, in article ,
"Kyle Boatright" wrote:

I"m lookin' at going to Oshkosh towards the end of the show - Thursday
through Sunday. Right now, the weather channel is predicting a pretty good
chance of rain in Wisconsin on Thursday and Friday and is predicting similar
weather for the first couple hundred miles North heading out of Atlanta.

Soooo... Do I bank on the 10 day forcast being way off base, or do I bet on
the forecast, make a drastic change in plans and head to Osh at the
beginning of the week, which looks more favorable from a weather standpoint?

Decisions, decisions...

KB



I usually find the 10th day of a 10-day forecast to be a day off, (forward
or back, your choice) if it's to be believed at all.
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

Kyle Boatright wrote:
Soooo... Do I bank on the 10 day forcast being way off base, or do I bet on
the forecast, make a drastic change in plans and head to Osh at the
beginning of the week, which looks more favorable from a weather standpoint?

Decisions, decisions...


Back in the days when I was making regular diving trips in the Bahamas I used to
start to sweat the weather days ahead of time, following every day's forecast
and constantly replanning my trip. Eventually I came to the conclusion that the
actual go-no go decision was the one taken right before the trip. All those
others were wasted effort and unnecessary stress.

At some point I'm going to drive down to the airport to fly. Immediately before
that is the only weather forecast that matters. If it sucks, I change my plans
and don't go. If it only sucks a little, I look at my options: maybe there's an
alternative route that avoids heavy weather. Then I go.

You haven't made it clear what your abilities are but if I were flying further
than 200 miles and didn't have an instrument rating, I'd find somebody with one
and who is current to come along. Otherwise your attempt to fly cross country
VFR on a time schedule is really just a crap shoot.



--
Mortimer Schnerd, RN

VE