Ice go /no go advice...

I'm new to flying IFR.I have about 5 hours actual, but this morning
was going to be my first IFR flight without a safety pilot.

CRQ to SBP

I'm flying a C172RG

The weather forecast:

Cloud bases vary from 1500 to 6000 ft over the route.

Rain reported all over the region.,.

Freezing level (From winds aloft) between 6000 and 9000

No icing airmets or sigmets for the route.

No Pireps availible.

MEA 6000 ft with one 16mile segment of 6400 ft.


Now three hours after I cancled I review the weather, there are two
pireps availible with light rime ice at 9000 ft.

Still no airmets or sigmets.

This was a very close decision for me, and I opted for the No-Go.
I also releaized that I don't feel I know enoguh about making this
decision.

How do the rest of you make the "Ice" decision.


What are your rules?

Any guidance on making this decision would be helpful.

wrote:

I'm new to flying IFR.I have about 5 hours actual, but this morning
was going to be my first IFR flight without a safety pilot.

CRQ to SBP

I'm flying a C172RG

The weather forecast:

Cloud bases vary from 1500 to 6000 ft over the route.

Rain reported all over the region.,.

Freezing level (From winds aloft) between 6000 and 9000

No icing airmets or sigmets for the route.

No Pireps availible.

MEA 6000 ft with one 16mile segment of 6400 ft.

I don't like the smell of that forecast. Sounds like at the MEA you've
got a very good chance of being in clouds in freezing temperatures.
Beats me why there's no airmet for icing.

This was a very close decision for me, and I opted for the No-Go.
I also releaized that I don't feel I know enoguh about making this
decision.

One of the factors that goes into a go/no-go decision is where are your
outs if the real weather is worse than the forecast.

What's the MIA (Minimum IFR Altitude)? If the MOCA is significantly
below the MEA, and you're going to be in radar coverage (local knowledge
helps here), you can reasonably expect that you might get assigned an
altitude below the MEA based on the MVA. Unfortunately, to the best of
my knowledge, the MVA is not knowable by pilots ahead of time. If
you're out of radar coverage, the MEA is as low as you'll get.

Do you know what the tops are? Maybe it's just a thin layer and you'll
be on top before you climb into freezing temperatures? You didn't give
enough information to tell.

Also, what kind of clouds are we talking about? Broken CU, or a thick
stratus overcast layer that stretches for 100's of miles. Based on the
reports of widespread rain, I'm guessing the latter.

I'm thinking of "worst case" scenarios. Based on the information you
gave, that sounds like the freezing level being a little lower than
forecast and the MEA being the MIA. So, imagine yourself at 7000
(lowest westbound altitude above the MEA), unable to get lower due to
terrain. OAT is 30 degrees, and you're in freezing rain. Sounds pretty
bad to me.

I don't understand why there's no icing airmet.

I think you made a good decision to cancel.




wrote:

I'm new to flying IFR.I have about 5 hours actual, but this morning
was going to be my first IFR flight without a safety pilot.

CRQ to SBP

I'm flying a C172RG

The weather forecast:

Cloud bases vary from 1500 to 6000 ft over the route.

Rain reported all over the region.,.

Freezing level (From winds aloft) between 6000 and 9000

No icing airmets or sigmets for the route.

No Pireps availible.

MEA 6000 ft with one 16mile segment of 6400 ft.

Now three hours after I cancled I review the weather, there are two
pireps availible with light rime ice at 9000 ft.

Still no airmets or sigmets.

This was a very close decision for me, and I opted for the No-Go.
I also releaized that I don't feel I know enoguh about making this
decision.

How do the rest of you make the "Ice" decision.

What are your rules?

Any guidance on making this decision would be helpful.

More information...
It was a good decision to cancel.
I just got a phone call, and the airplane I was going to use
had an alternator/electrical system failure, today, while someone else
was flying it in the pattern.


On Sat, 24 Jan 2004 11:42:26 -0800, wrote:

I'm new to flying IFR.I have about 5 hours actual, but this morning
was going to be my first IFR flight without a safety pilot.

CRQ to SBP

I'm flying a C172RG

The weather forecast:

Cloud bases vary from 1500 to 6000 ft over the route.

Rain reported all over the region.,.

Freezing level (From winds aloft) between 6000 and 9000

No icing airmets or sigmets for the route.

No Pireps availible.

MEA 6000 ft with one 16mile segment of 6400 ft.


Now three hours after I cancled I review the weather, there are two
pireps availible with light rime ice at 9000 ft.

Still no airmets or sigmets.

This was a very close decision for me, and I opted for the No-Go.
I also releaized that I don't feel I know enoguh about making this
decision.

How do the rest of you make the "Ice" decision.


What are your rules?

Any guidance on making this decision would be helpful.

wrote:

It was a good decision to cancel.
I just got a phone call, and the airplane I was going to use
had an alternator/electrical system failure, today, while someone else
was flying it in the pattern.

Hmmm... not so fast! Hindsight is 20-20. While certainly true
that you were lucky it wasn't you in IMC during this aircraft's
alternator failure, IMO you cannot use this incident to validate your
go/no go decision.

Rather, I believe that you made the right decision based on the facts at
the time of the decision; that is, that you concluded there was a good
chance of icing and you had no perceivable "out" to escape the ice.

--
Peter










----== Posted via Newsfeed.Com - Unlimited-Uncensored-Secure Usenet News==----
http://www.newsfeed.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 100,000 Newsgroups
---= 19 East/West-Coast Specialized Servers - Total Privacy via Encryption =---

In article , Peter R.
writes:

It was a good decision to cancel.
I just got a phone call, and the airplane I was going to use
had an alternator/electrical system failure, today, while someone else
was flying it in the pattern.

Hmmm... not so fast! Hindsight is 20-20. While certainly true
that you were lucky it wasn't you in IMC during this aircraft's
alternator failure, IMO you cannot use this incident to validate your
go/no go decision.

Rather, I believe that you made the right decision based on the facts at
the time of the decision; that is, that you concluded there was a good
chance of icing and you had no perceivable "out" to escape the ice.


Good thought, Peter. The wife and I call these "mid Lake decisions" and we are
not allowed to make them. Comes from sailing across large lakes (we have a
boat on Lake Erie). When you are on one shore and going to the other, you
decide about the weather, etc. but when you are in the middle of the lake you
don't second guess your decision.

A good decision was made not to go because of POSIBLE ice. When your are in
"the middle of the lake" you can't decide whether to go or not. Also, be sure
not to "beat up" on yourself if the decision turns out to be wrong. Just learn
from it. Experience is surviving your mistakes and learning.

(PaulaJay1) wrote in message ...
Good thought, Peter. The wife and I call these "mid Lake decisions" and we are
not allowed to make them. Comes from sailing across large lakes (we have a
boat on Lake Erie). When you are on one shore and going to the other, you
decide about the weather, etc. but when you are in the middle of the lake you
don't second guess your decision.

Agreed. You also can't make good weather decisions a day or even a
half day in advance. I can't tell you the number of times the weather
looked no-go 6 hours before the flight and ended up wonderful. Weather
guessing is still an almost random art. Its very common to hear about
crappy weather for the next week and then get CAVU. I try not to make
decisions until about an hour before departure. I'm flying around a
family with hotel reservations etc but I can honestly say the no-go
has been very rare despite forcasts of many no-gos.

-Robert

Personally I will confess to a high level of superstition in this matter.
When "something just doesn't feel right" and I can't figure out what it is I
stick to ground-pounding. We absorb and synthesize tremendous amounts of
information that we don't recall individually and I think a lot of that is
returned to us in the form of "gut feelings" etc. Now I know there was no
causal connection here whatsoever, but you know what, man doesn't live by
reason alone.

-cwk.


"Peter R." wrote in message
...
wrote:

It was a good decision to cancel.
I just got a phone call, and the airplane I was going to use
had an alternator/electrical system failure, today, while someone else
was flying it in the pattern.

Hmmm... not so fast! Hindsight is 20-20. While certainly true
that you were lucky it wasn't you in IMC during this aircraft's
alternator failure, IMO you cannot use this incident to validate your
go/no go decision.

To me, at least, this is an absolute no brainer. MEA at the freezing level -
no go. Ice is very scary stuff. Especially in a 172.

Michael

wrote in message
...
I'm new to flying IFR.I have about 5 hours actual, but this morning
was going to be my first IFR flight without a safety pilot....
snip

What are your rules?

This tends to be a very heated subject, but I hear your frustration,
it is hard to get substantial, realistic advice about ice. Not really
having enough experience to contribute anything meanigful yet, I will
just recommend reading Buck's "Weather Flying" (a refreshingly candid
discussion of ice flying strategies, I thought), and for what its
worth, offer some personal perspective:

PIREPs are very important to me, if kerosene burners bother to
sprinkle the wings and pass it on to center as "moderate", its
probably some pretty serious s**t for us. Remember these guys spend so
little time at one altitude block that the accretion had to be pretty
impressive to get noticed, and you are dealing with fairly uniform
experience level, too. With lighter GA craft, its a little tougher
call, very different ideas what "moderate" is sometimes. "Severe", on
the other hand, usually means "you really don't want to go there",
even when its reported by a 172. On the other hand, (and I may get
chastised for this), I take reports of trace or light to mean, "we,
too were told there was ice, but its not that bad". At least that's
how I think when I give them myself.

OK, enough beating around the bush, what are some examples of my go/no
go's:

GO: PDX-SEA, late November, C177B (180hp/CS prop), fly this route
4-5x year. Layered according to the radar, tops confirmed at 9,000,
the usual daily SCAIRMET for occasional mixed in clouds/precipitation.
Freezing level at 3K, MEA is 5000, mostly over valleys and several
airports with approaches. Picked up some trace/light mixed between
5-7K feet. Had to put on sunglasses once on top, beatiful trip.

NO-GO: West Yellowstone-Boise, C177(older 150hp model) (long trip
away from home), September, but unusually cold morning. Obstacle DP
was climbing via localizer with something like a 300' minimum climb
gradient to 10K with ~1500 ceiling. Freezing level at 8-9K, no PIREPs.
I have also experienced ice in this airplane before and knew it would
struggle to maintain much above 8K with any significant accretion.

I am sure you are getting a wind of the difference - the former had
plenty of outs with little better equipment, while the latter would
have been a truly optionless existence. I guess my point is you have
to think about the big weather/performance/terrain picture. I don't
think there are any hard and fast rules, in the end it boils down to
personal risk tolerance and previous experience with similar
circumstances...


Martin