Where are the Floridians going now?

Jay Honeck wrote:

Trouble with flying out is that the projected path has such a large area
of uncertainty that we cannot determine safe havens.

Let me see if I understand this:

Obviously not.

It's better to leave the aircraft in an area of near-certain impact, than it
is to fly the plane to an area of near-certain safety?

The problem is that there is no area of near-certain safety much closer to Florida
than Iowa. Maybe not there -- don't you guys get tornados this time of year?

There's no telling where that storm will hit land. Right now, it looks like it will
hit in Florida, but 'canes have been known to veer as far as NY before (or even head
back out to sea and die in mid-Atlantic). Once it hits land, there's no telling where
it will go. If it waltzes up the coast, it will stay a very strong storm and could
tear up everything between Florida and Hatteras -- maybe more. If it moves inland, it
might get several hundred miles before dropping to gale force winds. It will be
spawning tornados as far northwest as Kentucky and Ohio.

Basically, you can't run, but you *can* hide from one of these things. If you have a
strong enough hole to hide in.

George Patterson
If you want to know God's opinion of money, just look at the people
he gives it to.

In article HFNZc.278919$eM2.241167@attbi_s51,
"Jay Honeck" wrote:

Trouble with flying out is that the projected path has such a large area
of uncertainty that we cannot determine safe havens.

Let me see if I understand this:

It's better to leave the aircraft in an area of near-certain impact, than it
is to fly the plane to an area of near-certain safety?


No, the area of impact is so uncertain that all of the projected impacts
are within the area of uncertainty.

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message It's better to leave the aircraft in an
area of near-certain impact, than it
is to fly the plane to an area of near-certain safety?

Depends on one's insurance policy. A friend of mine has a $2mil oceanfront
condo, a $2.5mil yacht, and $900k airplane. Which one would you choose?

D.

"Ben Jackson" wrote in message Frances is projected to run straight up
the peninsula. Where are the planes going to hide this time?

Key West, which is packed to capacity. Many of the corporate jets went to
Biloxi and New Orleans. I'm waiting till tomorrow afternoon when the track
will provide a better forecast.

D.

Depends on one's insurance policy. A friend of mine has a $2mil oceanfront
condo, a $2.5mil yacht, and $900k airplane. Which one would you choose?

Well, you can't move the house -- and it's probably too late to move the
boat.

I'd move the plane, myself.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

The problem is that there is no area of near-certain safety much closer to
Florida
than Iowa. Maybe not there -- don't you guys get tornados this time of
year?

Tornados are short-lived beasts, with a diameter ranging from 100 feet to 2
miles. They pop up (down?) from just about any large storm, and cannot be
predicted with any certainty.

Hurricanes, on the other hand, cover entire states, live for weeks, and
lumber along with relative consistency. While it's true that you can't
tell which county they might hit until 6 hours out, you can predict which
state they're going to hammer, and when -- which is 98% better than tornado
prediction.

That said, I don't know what kind of a "hole" you can hide a plane in.
Hangars are about as poor a structure as I can imagine.

Personally, if I lived in Florida, I'd fly 6.5 hours north, and lounge in
one of our hot tubs for a few days...

;-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Capt.Doug opined

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message It's better to leave the aircraft in an
area of near-certain impact, than it
is to fly the plane to an area of near-certain safety?

Depends on one's insurance policy. A friend of mine has a $2mil oceanfront
condo, a $2.5mil yacht, and $900k airplane. Which one would you choose?

D.

Move the condo?



-ash
Cthulhu for President!
Why vote for a lesser evil?

"Ash Wyllie" wrote in message
...
Capt.Doug opined

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message It's better to leave the aircraft in an
area of near-certain impact, than it
is to fly the plane to an area of near-certain safety?

Depends on one's insurance policy. A friend of mine has a $2mil
oceanfront
condo, a $2.5mil yacht, and $900k airplane. Which one would you choose?

D.

Move the condo?


You dummy!! That would be too slow.

Jay Honeck wrote:
Personally, if I lived in Florida, I'd fly 6.5 hours north, and lounge in
one of our hot tubs for a few days...

So, do I understand correctly, you are offering free hotel rooms to
Florida refugees fleeing to Iowa in their personal aircraft? :-)

Ben Jackson wrote:
Frances is projected to run straight up the peninsula. Where are the
planes going to hide this time?

CNN just showed the current FlightExplorer screen with all the aircraft
heading north.