Six-Place Composite?

"Peter Duniho" wrote in message
...
"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...
They should be able to build and sell an A36 for 150,000 depending on
avionics. There really is not that much to an airplane. I may be missing
something like the cost of the insurance, but there just isn't that much
to a single engine plane.

Of course there is. Airplanes aren't produced in large enough quantities
to take advantage of modern automated mass-production techniques; they are
essentially hand built. And of course there are all the costs associated
with complying with regulatory requirements.

Just because the cost of materials is relatively low, that doesn't mean it
doesn't cost a lot to produce an airplane.

I think it highly unlikely that, given the large number of aircraft
manufacturers, that they are all colluding on the price. And that's the
only way to explain how prices are so high if your assertion about what
they *should* cost is correct.

In any case, I think you entirely misunderstood Dan's point. The
manufacturers he cites as positive examples aren't selling aircraft any
cheaper than the negative examples he gives.

Pete

To me a large qty would be 200-300. If they went out and just built that
qty. I believe and I could be wrong they could produce the plane for that
price.
I have been a machinist for 30 years building aircraft parts. I had my own
shop with 41 employees and 21 CNC machines.

Now lets go out on a limb, build 1000 planes at the special pricing. I think
there would be a lot of buyers for a new A36 @ 150000. I would probably be
one of them.

"Marco Leon" mmleon(at)yahoo.com wrote in message
...
Who do you all think will be the first to come out with a new certified
single-engine, six-place composite (non-aluminium) airframe?

Extra.

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...
To me a large qty would be 200-300. If they went out and just built that
qty. I believe and I could be wrong they could produce the plane for that
price.

You are wrong. Building 1000 Bonanzas wouldn't bring the price down to
$150K/each.

If you think it's so doable, not only building 1000 Bonanzas for less than
$150K each (since you want to make a profit too), and you think there are
1000 buyers for Bonanzas that cost only $150K, why not do it? I assure you,
I'll buy a $150K Bonanza from you if you do. I'll bet lots of other people
would too.

Remember, the hypothetical airplane needs to meet or exceed every aspect of
the 2005 A36.

I hate the "if it's such a good idea, why hasn't someone already done it"
argument, but in this case I think it fits.

Pete

"aluckyguess" wrote:
Dan I believe your right.
They should be able to build and sell an A36 for 150,000 depending on
avionics. There really is not that much to an airplane. I may be
missing something like the cost of the insurance, but there just isn't
that much to a single engine plane.

That's not what I meant. Raytheon could not by any stretch of the
imagination build and sell an A36 for $150k. They sell them for nearly
$800k because that's what it takes to make the line profitable. Do you
think Raytheon is making $650k margin on the A36s it sells?

A mfr. has some choices to make when demand dwindles for an already low
volume, high cost product : it can invest in aggressive marketing and
product improvement, it can shave margins as thin as possible hoping to
revive sales, or it can continue to raise margin/unit until demand
finally falls below a supportable level. Raytheon has apparently
(wisely, IMO) chosen the third alternative. The Bonanza is a nearly
60-year old design; there's no sense in plowing development money into
it. Cut the price? How much could they cut? Not enough to get
anywhere near the SR-22 and get some of that market. The A36 is a
"boutique" airplane: it sells on panache to a very narrow market. When
those aging rich guys are gone, the Bo' will go with them.
--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

Ummm I knew that!

I was thinking of checking before I posted...
What's going on with it?? Is it really a player? Or is it proof that there
really is no market for new six-placers?



"Peter Duniho" wrote in message
...
"Marco Leon" mmleon(at)yahoo.com wrote in message
...
I guess I was thinking about piston single engine composites.

The Extra 400 *is* a piston single engine composite.




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"Marco Leon" mleon(at)optonline.net wrote in message
...
I was thinking of checking before I posted...
What's going on with it?? Is it really a player? Or is it proof that there
really is no market for new six-placers?

I don't know the latest details. My recollection is that they suspended
production (and Extra might even have done some kind of reorganization), and
are now focusing on the Extra 500 turboprop. I don't think the 400 is still
being produced.

The Extra 400, Piper Meridian, and similar have to some extent been the
victims of poor timing, appearing just as economies around the world
declined (due in no small part to the dot-com bubble burst, but also related
to other factors of course). I would guess that the Meridian was doing
better than the 400, prompting Extra to spend more effort (and money) on the
turboprop version of the 400. But I honestly don't know any of the
specifics; once it became clear I wasn't going to be able to afford the 400
any time soon, I stopped paying attention.

IMHO, there is definitely a market for new design six-seaters. After all,
there's a market for much more expensive aircraft. But cost is an issue (as
always). Since the piston six-seaters have turned out to be so expensive
(the Extra 400 was originally promised to have a price of "only" $800K,
aiming it squarely at the Saratoga and Bonanza, both of which it outperforms
significantly), they are competing with larger, faster twins (which can cost
much less to purchase used than something like the Extra 400, leaving lots
of money left over for operating expenses), as well as turbine models (I
don't doubt that the large number of VLJ's promised has been suppressing the
piston market, as people take a wait-and-see attitude).

So while the market probably exists, it's also probably small, and
especially so until all of the VLJ's have actually been certified and we
find out what the actual price and performance will be (I suspect price will
be much higher than promised, and performance slightly lower, which would
probably put some breath back into the piston 6-place market). If the Extra
400 could have come in at a price competitive with lesser-performing
aircraft, it probably would have done better. But it didn't. So it's
competing with existing aircraft that perform as well or better, and in that
environment, it's not nearly the slam dunk it could have been.

I think that it's still not out of the question to see Cirrus or Lancair
come up with something. They will probably make something more like the
A36/Saratoga, and probably WILL be less expensive, both in terms of purchase
price as well as operating expenses. Their piston six-place probably won't
be pressurized (the Extra 400 surely suffered from sales due to the
pressurization, which increased maintenance expenses slightly, but increased
training and insurance requirements dramatically), might not even have
retractable gear, and so will be much better aligned in terms of expense and
capabilities with the existing 6-place market.

Pete

You make all valid points Pete. I think it's unfortunate that the
Beech/Cessna/Piper trio won't be coming out with anything "new." As other
people have said, I think their days are numbered (even though it'll be
years if not decades) if they don't take a drastic risk and come out with a
new airframe. Maybe the Boeing-Airbus saga of betting the farm on new
airframes is destined to become the saga of the GA manufacturers. Anyone out
there doing a thesis? That would make for a good subject.

If that's the case, I wonder of even Cirrus is willing to come out with a
new six-place if it means betting the farm. Maybe Cirrus' SR-2x airframe
will follow the PA-28 = PA-32 route and spawn a six-place airframe with the
majority of components being similar if not identical.

Marco

"Peter Duniho" wrote in message
...
"Marco Leon" mleon(at)optonline.net wrote in message
...
I was thinking of checking before I posted...
What's going on with it?? Is it really a player? Or is it proof that
there really is no market for new six-placers?

I don't know the latest details. My recollection is that they suspended
production (and Extra might even have done some kind of reorganization),
and are now focusing on the Extra 500 turboprop. I don't think the 400 is
still being produced.

The Extra 400, Piper Meridian, and similar have to some extent been the
victims of poor timing, appearing just as economies around the world
declined (due in no small part to the dot-com bubble burst, but also
related to other factors of course). I would guess that the Meridian was
doing better than the 400, prompting Extra to spend more effort (and
money) on the turboprop version of the 400. But I honestly don't know any
of the specifics; once it became clear I wasn't going to be able to afford
the 400 any time soon, I stopped paying attention.

IMHO, there is definitely a market for new design six-seaters. After all,
there's a market for much more expensive aircraft. But cost is an issue
(as always). Since the piston six-seaters have turned out to be so
expensive (the Extra 400 was originally promised to have a price of "only"
$800K, aiming it squarely at the Saratoga and Bonanza, both of which it
outperforms significantly), they are competing with larger, faster twins
(which can cost much less to purchase used than something like the Extra
400, leaving lots of money left over for operating expenses), as well as
turbine models (I don't doubt that the large number of VLJ's promised has
been suppressing the piston market, as people take a wait-and-see
attitude).

So while the market probably exists, it's also probably small, and
especially so until all of the VLJ's have actually been certified and we
find out what the actual price and performance will be (I suspect price
will be much higher than promised, and performance slightly lower, which
would probably put some breath back into the piston 6-place market). If
the Extra 400 could have come in at a price competitive with
lesser-performing aircraft, it probably would have done better. But it
didn't. So it's competing with existing aircraft that perform as well or
better, and in that environment, it's not nearly the slam dunk it could
have been.

I think that it's still not out of the question to see Cirrus or Lancair
come up with something. They will probably make something more like the
A36/Saratoga, and probably WILL be less expensive, both in terms of
purchase price as well as operating expenses. Their piston six-place
probably won't be pressurized (the Extra 400 surely suffered from sales
due to the pressurization, which increased maintenance expenses slightly,
but increased training and insurance requirements dramatically), might not
even have retractable gear, and so will be much better aligned in terms of
expense and capabilities with the existing 6-place market.

Pete




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In article , Marco Leon mleon(at)optonline.net wrote:

If that's the case, I wonder of even Cirrus is willing to come out with a
new six-place if it means betting the farm. Maybe Cirrus' SR-2x airframe
will follow the PA-28 = PA-32 route and spawn a six-place airframe with the
majority of components being similar if not identical.

I wouldn't be surprised if Diamond is the first of the Diamond /
Cirrus / Lancair crowd with a six place composite. They've already
stretched the Katana to make the Star, and then added an extra
engine to make the TwinStar, so another stretch to make a
SuperStar/TwinSuperStar sounds like something they'd probably
consider. The Diamond product line is similiar to what Piper did
with the PA-28/PA-32 lines.

Cirrus seems to be concentrating on the SR-20/22 and Lancair's
certified division is trying to avoid becoming a footnote in aviation
history.

John
--
John Clear - http://www.panix.com/~jac

"Peter Duniho" wrote in message
...
"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...
To me a large qty would be 200-300. If they went out and just built that
qty. I believe and I could be wrong they could produce the plane for that
price.

You are wrong. Building 1000 Bonanzas wouldn't bring the price down to
$150K/each.

If you think it's so doable, not only building 1000 Bonanzas for less than
$150K each (since you want to make a profit too), and you think there are
1000 buyers for Bonanzas that cost only $150K, why not do it? I assure
you, I'll buy a $150K Bonanza from you if you do. I'll bet lots of other
people would too.

Remember, the hypothetical airplane needs to meet or exceed every aspect
of the 2005 A36.

I hate the "if it's such a good idea, why hasn't someone already done it"
argument, but in this case I think it fits.

Pete
Well talk to Ratheon for me and drum me up a little capital and I will do
it. I have some time on my hands. I bet we would make a 30% profit to boot.
I think I could build a Cherokee 180 for well under 100k depending on
avioncs.

"aluckyguess" wrote:

Well talk to Ratheon for me and drum me up a little capital and I will
do it. I have some time on my hands. I bet we would make a 30% profit
to boot.
I think I could build a Cherokee 180 for well under 100k depending on
avioncs.

Answer the question: if it's such a good idea, why hasn't someone
already done it? Or to put it another way, what do you know that the
entire light aircraft industry doesn't?
--
Dan
C172RG at BFM