Safety: Planes vs Bikes

Don Tuite wrote in
:

Snipola
I'm not real happy with the NHTSA stats, anyway
Snipola

"There's lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Brian
--
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"Atticus Finch" wrote in message
news
On 8/25/2006 12:28 PM Robert M. Gary mumbled something about the
following:
I'd put my kinds in an airplane with a safe pilot long before I'd put
them on the back of a motorcycle with a crazy rider. It all depends on
the person at the controls.

-Robert



And I would rather put my kids on the back of a motorcycle with a safe
rider than put them in an airplane with a crazy pilot.

But all things (ie controller) being equal I'd put my child in a light
aircraft before I'd put them on a motorcycle.

On 8/28/2006 11:31 AM Gig 601XL Builder mumbled something about the
following:
"Atticus Finch" wrote in message
news
On 8/25/2006 12:28 PM Robert M. Gary mumbled something about the
following:
I'd put my kinds in an airplane with a safe pilot long before I'd put
them on the back of a motorcycle with a crazy rider. It all depends on
the person at the controls.

-Robert


And I would rather put my kids on the back of a motorcycle with a safe
rider than put them in an airplane with a crazy pilot.

But all things (ie controller) being equal I'd put my child in a light
aircraft before I'd put them on a motorcycle.



And all things being equal, my kids will ride on a motorcycle. They
already do, have almost all of their lives, and my 2 youngest daughters
want Harley's of their own when they get old enough.

"NrDg" wrote in message
m...
What I have heard and believe myself is that the risk of death is similar
for both activities on average. Hazards are different. Private pilots tend
to do themselve in with their own mistakes. Riders get got by others a lot
more.

That pretty well agrees with what I managed to piece
together the last time I looked into this. Having some
interest in both activities I tried to figure it out as best
I could, but there definitely ARE a lot of conflicting
statistics out there. Actually, I got into riding because
recreational flying was just getting to be SO damned
expensive (I know, if you really wanna do it, you'll
find a way - I guess I just didn't want it enough), and is
certainly a hell of a lot less able to satisfy the "I wanna go
for a ride NOW" sort of spontaneity that I can get with
the bike.

But it IS a different sort of risk, as you said. In flying,
probably 99% of the time your fate is completely in
YOUR hands - if something bad happens, it is almost
always going to be your own fault. That's certainly a
lot less true on a motorcycle, but I also like to think that
there's a lot I can do to minimize my own risk such that
it's not really as high as the statistics would make it seem.
You get to do that in flying as well, but I tend to think that
the statistics there really do reflect the actual risk to the
average, conscientious pilot pretty well.

Bob M.

"Skywise" wrote in message
...
First of all, car design has changed dramatically over the years
to increase occupant survivability rates. Little to nothing has
changed for motorcyclists.

Not entirely true. Modern motorcycles are a good deal
more advanced than their predecessors of, say, 20-30
years ago, in the areas of suspension and frame design,
tires, etc.. There have also been improvements made in
the protective gear available to motorcyclists, although
obviously that's a factor only if the rider chooses to wear
the gear.

Clearly a motorcycle can't provide the same sort of
protection as a car - there IS a reason those things are
referred to as "cages," besides the derogatory aspect -
but it's just not true that a bike from the 2000s is the same
as one from the 1970s.

Just to make up some numbers....

10,000 cars and 100 bikes.

In 1950, 500 car drivers and 10 bikers die. That makes bikers
2% of the fatalities.

Well, 1.96%, actually, but that's being pedantic...

But it's a completely irrelevant percentage. If there
were during this period only 500 cars on the road, but
there were 1,000,000 motorcycles, and each vehicle
on average covered the same mileage, then clearly the
bikes would be far safer. The ONLY meaningful way
to compare safety numbers for any type of transportation
is in terms of per-passenger-mile numbers. You tried to
bring that in here, by stating the number of vehicles in
total, but even that is by itself not particularly interesting,
since it says nothing about how much each vehicle is
actually used - how much exposure to *potential* accidents
there are in each case.

In the above, 10% of the bikers (assuming one per bike)
and 5% of the drivers were killed. But if the bikes totalled
a million miles during this period, and the cars totalled only
200,000 (obviously, this is not a real-world case), then
we'd conclude that the bikes are actually considerably
safer; on a per-passenger-mile basis (at one occupant
per car), we have a death for every 400 passenger-miles
in the cars, but only one per 100,000 passenger-miles
for the bikes.


Bob M.

"Bob Myers" wrote in message
...

"NrDg" wrote in message
m...
What I have heard and believe myself is that the risk of death is similar
for both activities on average. Hazards are different. Private pilots
tend to do themselve in with their own mistakes. Riders get got by others
a lot more.

I just got to jump in on this. I've been both ways - motorcycles and light
planes.

In flying, you can make a lot of small mistakes with pleanty of time to
correct them. If you are a careful pilot and do everything right, your
chances of dying at an advanced age in bed are very good. Chances of
mechanical failure are very rare today, and a midair is even more rare. The
careful pilot MIGHT be run down by a descending airliner.

On a motorcycle, you can do everything EXACTLY right, and still have a good
chance of disaster. Road conditions around a curve, driver pulling in front
of you, crowding you in passing. During the summer here in East Tennessee,
seldom a week goes by that there isn't a fatality reported in the paper.
Ever ride on a country road in the fall after leaves cover the road, and wet
with rain? These things are killing machines - talk to anyone in an
emergence room. But, hell yes they are fun.

I gave up the bikes volunterally. Old age took my plane away.

"birdog" wrote in message
.. .

"Bob Myers" wrote in message
...

"NrDg" wrote in message
m...
What I have heard and believe myself is that the risk of death is
similar for both activities on average. Hazards are different. Private
pilots tend to do themselve in with their own mistakes. Riders get got
by others a lot more.

I just got to jump in on this. I've been both ways - motorcycles and light
planes.

OK, but please watch the attributions - while you DID
include the original writer of the above, you also got my
name in there and someone might attribute the comments
to me. Fortunately, in this case, I happen to agree with
them.


In flying, you can make a lot of small mistakes with pleanty of time to
correct them.

Agreed, with some exceptions. Most of those would come
under the heading of Altitude Is Your Friend, but basically,
sure. On the other hand, little mistakes near the ground can
bite you really, really hard. Ask John Denver...


On a motorcycle, you can do everything EXACTLY right, and still have a
good chance of disaster. Road conditions around a curve, driver pulling in
front of you, crowding you in passing.

Yeah, but wasn't that the original point? That on a bike, there
are more things that are completely OUT of your hands.


During the summer here in East Tennessee, seldom a week goes by that there
isn't a fatality reported in the paper.

No doubt, but again that by itself doesn't say a lot unless we
know how many bikes are on the road vs. the number of
planes in the air, and how much time each spends there.

Ever ride on a country road in the fall after leaves cover the road, and
wet with rain? These things are killing machines - talk to anyone in an
emergence room. But, hell yes they are fun.

Riding on a country road in the fall with leaves and/or
water, though, is a choice; it IS within the rider's
control, and you can decide that you're just not up to
it. Or that you ARE, but that you have to modify your
behavior accordingly. Not really much different from each
pilot's "personal minimums" re the weather, etc..
Everyone, in ANY such activity, makes decisions all the time
which are based on the current conditions and how much
risk that individual deems "acceptable." Hopefully, in all
cases, the person making that decision would be fully
informed and at least reasonably objective about their own
skills and the capabilities of their machine. I also think that
in the case of motorcycling, there's a lot LESS of that latter
part than in flying. The bar is set a bit higher in terms of the
"price of admission" re demonstrated skill, judgement, and
knowledge, and as a result flying tends to have a LOT fewer
of the class we'd call "squids" in motorcycling.

Bob M.

"birdog" wrote in message
.. .
"NrDg" wrote in message
m...
What I have heard and believe myself is that the risk of death is
similar for both activities on average. Hazards are different. Private
pilots tend to do themselve in with their own mistakes. Riders get got
by others a lot more.

I just got to jump in on this. I've been both ways - motorcycles and light
planes.

In flying, you can make a lot of small mistakes with pleanty of time to
correct them. If you are a careful pilot and do everything right, your
chances of dying at an advanced age in bed are very good. Chances of
mechanical failure are very rare today, and a midair is even more rare.
The careful pilot MIGHT be run down by a descending airliner.

These are not the types of things that gets pilots. The major problems are
mental and likely involve weather in one way or the other. A strong desire
to get home when the weather is marginal. Flying too low under a cloud
layer - scudrunning - and hitting something poking up from the ground or the
ground itself. Loosing control by flying in the clouds without sufficient
instrument training. Flying in clouds in icing conditions. Getting caught in
a thunderstorm cell. Flying into an invisible rotor mountain flying. Taking
off too heavy for current temperature and wind and runway too short. Yah if
you only fly day VFR with no wind and clouds you are very safe. If you want
practical transportation you need to nip at the weather / ability boundary
and may risk getting in over your head if you evaluate the situation
incorrectly.

On a motorcycle, you can do everything EXACTLY right, and still have a
good chance of disaster. Road conditions around a curve, driver pulling in
front of you, crowding you in passing. During the summer here in East
Tennessee, seldom a week goes by that there isn't a fatality reported in
the paper. Ever ride on a country road in the fall after leaves cover the
road, and wet with rain? These things are killing machines - talk to
anyone in an emergence room. But, hell yes they are fun.

You can reduce your risk significanly in the face of perverse actions of
others but yah you are a lot more at risk from the actions of others when
riding. Pilots like to think they are safer than they really are on average.
The average overall risk for both activities is similar.

I gave up the bikes volunterally. Old age took my plane away.

I gave up planes because I needed the money for early retirement. I got into
bikes as a somewhat replacement for flying. If I won the lottery, the first
thing I'd do is buy a plane (and keep the bike).

"Bob Myers" wrote in news:KRGIg.20$TJ6.18
@news.cpqcorp.net:


"Skywise" wrote in message
...
Snipola

In 1950, 500 car drivers and 10 bikers die. That makes bikers
2% of the fatalities.

Well, 1.96%, actually, but that's being pedantic...
Snipola

errr....10 divided by 500 = .02, or 2%. How'd you get 1.96%?

As for the rest, you're right in that I did not present the
whole picture. It's not easy to compare apples and oranges and
get a meaningful answer.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

errr....10 divided by 500 = .02, or 2%. How'd you get 1.96%?

Dividing by the total number of motorists - 510.

Jose
--
The monkey turns the crank and thinks he's making the music.
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