GA Flying Down 20%

Jay Honeck wrote:
Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm

Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.

I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military
aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas
-- not any more...

If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead.

I don't think many military airplanes have used avgas since 2000, and
the drop since this is still very dramatic. I won't say GA is dead, but
it certainly is very sick. I'm looking at BMW motorcycles this weekend,
having decided I simply can't afford an airplane of the capability I
really need to be useful (Skylane or better) and the inconvenience of he
nearest airport with hangars being 45 minutes away. If I buy a new
bike, I'll probably drop my flying club membership and ride.

Matt

"Jay Honeck" wrote:

Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm

Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.

What's really striking is the dropoff after 9/11/01. 100LL deliveries have
never recovered.


--
Dan
? at BFM

On 5/31/2007 4:30:43 PM, "Gig 601XL Builder" wrote:

But more to point I know a lot of folks that bot fly and could plop
down half a million for a new plane. The funny thing is they never do.
They buy 5 or 6 year old Barons or Bonanzas.

From what I know now about aircraft ownership, I would never buy new.

--
Peter

Nomen Nescio writes:

Did you ever read "The Millionaire Next Door"?

Yes, and what struck me about these millionaires is that most of them had
become that way only because they had spent their entire lives not spending
money. Obviously if you never spend anything you can build up quite a bit of
cash. I don't see the advantage to having a million in the bank and still
living like trailer trash, though.

Additionally, a million dollars really isn't significant these days.

writes:

The stock market is hot because companies are in cost cutting mode,
laying off americans and sending jobs overseas.

Dell just posted unexpectedly high profits and announced a layoff of 8000
people at the same time.

Its great for short-term investors but hell for the middle
class.

It's one of the defects in the current capitalist system. Anonymous ownership
of large corporations is a bad thing.

"Gig 601XL Builder" wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net wrote in message
...
Dan Luke wrote:
"Jim Logajan" wrote:

It does seem that there's an awful lot of used airplanes on the
market now. Anybody know how to find out statistics on this?

I have no answer for size of used market, but this web site has
links to trends in the size of new aircraft market:

http://www.gama.aero/home.php

It says shipments of new piston aircraft are down nearly 8%. Somewat
ominous in light of the fact that the last time the stock markets
were this hot, airplanes were selling like hotcakes.

Well that's just the first quarter and who the hell buys an airplane in
winter. But more to point I know a lot of folks that bot fly and could
plop down half a million for a new plane. The funny thing is they never
do. They buy 5 or 6 year old Barons or Bonanzas.

How many of those have less than 300 hours (50 / year)? If that's all you
fly, a used plane is a good deal.

My small home airport is the home of 7 jets ranging from Citation 3s to a
big ass Falcon. Every other hanger has a Beechcraft in it. But there is
not a single piston aircraft on the field that was built in this century.
Maybe this is because folks around here are just smarter.

When I bought my B36, it was nine years old and had 1660 hours on it. In the
six and a half years I had it, I put 2012 hours on it.

The only time a piston plane really looses value is when it goes from 0
time to 100 hours. After that they hold their value pretty well.

Which is why buying a factory demonstrator (115 hours) is soooooo sweet.


--
Matt Barrow
Performace Homes, LLC.
Cheyenne, WY

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
ups.com...
Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm

Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.

I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military
aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas
-- not any more...

If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead.


Look at Jet-A consumption.

GA isn't dead, just not burning AvGas.

"Nomen Nescio" wrote in message
...
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----

From: "Gig 601XL Builder" wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net

But more to point I know a lot of folks that bot fly and could plop
down half a million for a new plane. The funny thing is they never do.
They
buy 5 or 6 year old Barons or Bonanzas.

Which is the reason they COULD drop 1/2 mil on a plane.
Did you ever read "The Millionaire Next Door"?


They don't buy used cars, but they do keep them 6-8 years.

And they don;t buy flashy cars ala Hollyweird/TV. They're as likely to own
an 8-10 year old Mercedes as they are a five year old Honda Accord.

"Peter R." wrote in message
...
On 5/31/2007 4:30:43 PM, "Gig 601XL Builder" wrote:

But more to point I know a lot of folks that bot fly and could plop
down half a million for a new plane. The funny thing is they never do.
They buy 5 or 6 year old Barons or Bonanzas.

From what I know now about aircraft ownership, I would never buy new.

Just about all the new sales are fractionals, partnerships, etc.

Matt Barrow writes:

Look at Jet-A consumption.

GA isn't dead, just not burning AvGas.

That may be a very different flavor of GA, one completely inaccessible to the
average private pilot flying for pleasure. I've no doubt that business jets
are on the upswing, but that's not a realistic option for someone who normally
rents a Cessna 152.