Go or No-Go?

You are flying a high performance single recip. about two hours south
to an airshow you really, really want to go to. In fact, this airshow
is an annual thing you haven't missed in years.
You are not yet instrument rated but about halfway through the
training for commercial & instrument.

The enroute forecast is for heavy fog 20 miles south of your departure
airport to about 30 miles north of your destination. The fog layer top
is consistently 100-200 ft agl the whole way. Ceiling is nil and
visibility is 1/4 mile at best in the fog. Above the fog it is clear
blue with light winds the whole way. Destination is excellent VFR.
Conditions are forecast to remain this way for the duration of your
flight. Fog will be gone later in the morning but the destination
airport will be closed for the airshow by then. To make it to the
airshow in time you must fly over the fog for about an hour & 45
minutes (most of the way). The fog layer stretches 100 miles or more
both sides of your intended route, flying around it is unreasonable
and would compromise your fuel supply.

Go or No-Go?

What if it was something more important like a business meeting or a
critically ill close relative who may die within hours? How about two
engines instead of one?

Go or No-Go?

Ricky

"Ricky" wrote in message
...

You are flying a high performance single recip. about two hours south
to an airshow you really, really want to go to. In fact, this airshow
is an annual thing you haven't missed in years.
You are not yet instrument rated but about halfway through the
training for commercial & instrument.

The enroute forecast is for heavy fog 20 miles south of your departure
airport to about 30 miles north of your destination. The fog layer top
is consistently 100-200 ft agl the whole way. Ceiling is nil and
visibility is 1/4 mile at best in the fog. Above the fog it is clear
blue with light winds the whole way. Destination is excellent VFR.
Conditions are forecast to remain this way for the duration of your
flight. Fog will be gone later in the morning but the destination
airport will be closed for the airshow by then. To make it to the
airshow in time you must fly over the fog for about an hour & 45
minutes (most of the way). The fog layer stretches 100 miles or more
both sides of your intended route, flying around it is unreasonable
and would compromise your fuel supply.

Go or No-Go?

What if it was something more important like a business meeting or a
critically ill close relative who may die within hours? How about two
engines instead of one?

Go or No-Go?

Ricky

The reason for the flight is irrelevant.

Personally I have never seen a 200 mile wide section of fog over dry land
where conditions were constant over the entire area, but even if such
conditions were possible the answer wouldn't be much different than if were
a body of water and you had no water survival gear. If you feel comfortable
flying a single engine plane over such a stretch, then go for it. Lots of
people do.

"Mike" nospam@ microsoft.com wrote in
:

"Ricky" wrote in message
news:9b9ea44b-afaf-4864-8d3d-8e19039e8377
@v72g2000hsv.googlegroups.com.
..

You are flying a high performance single recip. about two hours south
to an airshow you really, really want to go to. In fact, this airshow
is an annual thing you haven't missed in years.
You are not yet instrument rated but about halfway through the
training for commercial & instrument.

The enroute forecast is for heavy fog 20 miles south of your
departure airport to about 30 miles north of your destination. The
fog layer top is consistently 100-200 ft agl the whole way. Ceiling
is nil and visibility is 1/4 mile at best in the fog. Above the fog
it is clear blue with light winds the whole way. Destination is
excellent VFR. Conditions are forecast to remain this way for the
duration of your flight. Fog will be gone later in the morning but
the destination airport will be closed for the airshow by then. To
make it to the airshow in time you must fly over the fog for about an
hour & 45 minutes (most of the way). The fog layer stretches 100
miles or more both sides of your intended route, flying around it is
unreasonable and would compromise your fuel supply.

Go or No-Go?

What if it was something more important like a business meeting or a
critically ill close relative who may die within hours? How about two
engines instead of one?

Go or No-Go?

Ricky

The reason for the flight is irrelevant.

Personally I have never seen a 200 mile wide section of fog over dry
land where conditions were constant over the entire area, but even if
such conditions were possible the answer wouldn't be much different
than if were a body of water and you had no water survival gear. If
you feel comfortable flying a single engine plane over such a stretch,
then go for it. Lots of people do.


I've seen this a good few times and have actually flown over it VFR to
the end. In a Chief, in fact. We had a way out, but were screwed in the
event of an engine failure, of course.

I don't think I'd do it now...


Bertie

On Sat, 4 Oct 2008 17:32:10 -0700 (PDT), Ricky wrote:

No-Go

yep

On Sat, 4 Oct 2008 17:32:10 -0700 (PDT), Ricky
wrote:


You are flying a high performance single recip. about two hours south
to an airshow you really, really want to go to. In fact, this airshow
is an annual thing you haven't missed in years.
You are not yet instrument rated but about halfway through the
training for commercial & instrument.

The enroute forecast is for heavy fog 20 miles south of your departure
airport to about 30 miles north of your destination. The fog layer top
is consistently 100-200 ft agl the whole way. Ceiling is nil and
visibility is 1/4 mile at best in the fog. Above the fog it is clear
blue with light winds the whole way. Destination is excellent VFR.
Conditions are forecast to remain this way for the duration of your
flight. Fog will be gone later in the morning but the destination
airport will be closed for the airshow by then. To make it to the
airshow in time you must fly over the fog for about an hour & 45
minutes (most of the way). The fog layer stretches 100 miles or more
both sides of your intended route, flying around it is unreasonable
and would compromise your fuel supply.

Go or No-Go?

What if it was something more important like a business meeting or a
critically ill close relative who may die within hours? How about two
engines instead of one?

Go or No-Go?

Ricky

whenever you are unsure, or whenever you are sure but the hairs are
satnding up on the back of your neck the best bet is to find a window
seat, preferably where you can see the weather that approaches, and
have a beer while you study the pattern of the weather.

Stealth Pilot

On Oct 5, 8:17*am, Stealth Pilot
wrote:

find a window
seat, preferably where you can see the weather that approaches, and
have a beer while you study the pattern of the weather.

Stealth Pilot

Well, then I'd have to wait 8 hours if the wx improved. : )

Ricky

On Oct 4, 7:47*pm, "Mike" nospam@ microsoft.com wrote:

The reason for the flight is irrelevant.

Personally I have never seen a 200 mile wide section of fog over dry land
where conditions were constant over the entire area, but even if such
conditions were possible

I actually flew over this about 10 or so years ago from San Antonio to
Harlingen, TX.
The fog band was wide enough to make going around unreasonable and it
started
just south of S.A. and ended not too far north of Harlingen. The fog
stretched all the
way down to the Gulf Of Mexico and went far north west into Texas, It
was huge...and very
strange. I remember it like it was yesterday, the nervousness, the
constant listening
of the wx in Harlingen to make sure it was staying VFR, I was totally
preoccupied with
wondering what I would find under the plane if my engine failed and I
had to go down.

In this case an instrument rating wouldn't matter much anyway, except
for the experience
of being able to fly with a very different-looking horizon and staying
upright in the fog if my
engine failed. Straight & level flight I found to be somewhat of a
challenge for a little while.

Today I don't think I'd make the flight, but in a twin I probably
would if it was loaded to
enable single engine cruise & climb performance.

Ricky

On Oct 4, 8:32*pm, Ricky wrote:
You are flying a high performance single recip. about two hours south
to an airshow you really, really want to go to. In fact, this airshow
is an annual thing you haven't missed in years.
You are not yet instrument rated but about halfway through the
training for commercial & instrument.

The enroute forecast is for heavy fog 20 miles south of your departure
airport to about 30 miles north of your destination. The fog layer top
is consistently 100-200 ft agl the whole way. Ceiling is nil and
visibility is 1/4 mile at best in the fog. Above the fog it is clear
blue with light winds the whole way. Destination is excellent VFR.
Conditions are forecast to remain this way for the duration of your
flight. Fog will be gone later in the morning but the destination
airport will be closed for the airshow by then. To make it to the
airshow in time you must fly over the fog for about an hour & 45
minutes (most of the way). The fog layer stretches 100 miles or more
both sides of your intended route, flying around it is unreasonable
and would compromise your fuel supply.

Go or No-Go?

What if it was something more important like a business meeting or a
critically ill close relative who may die within hours? How about two
engines instead of one?

Go or No-Go?

Ricky

This is not much different than complex SEL IMC or even VFR at night,
is it? i admit to being one of those IFR rated pilots who does fly at
night in IMC so long as destination or comfortable alternates are
golden.

On Sun, 5 Oct 2008 19:47:40 -0700 (PDT), Ricky
wrote:

On Oct 5, 8:17*am, Stealth Pilot
wrote:

find a window
seat, preferably where you can see the weather that approaches, and
have a beer while you study the pattern of the weather.

Stealth Pilot

Well, then I'd have to wait 8 hours if the wx improved. : )

Ricky

the boy has got it!!!!!
when in doubt wait for a while.
have a beer.
dont be in such a hurry to get the site of your fatal accident. let
the moment pass. :-)

Stealth (there's hope for you yet) Pilot