Keep your hand off the release handle during aero tows!

On Monday, October 14, 2013 3:43:07 AM UTC-6, Paul Ruskin wrote:
On Monday, October 14, 2013 3:03:44 AM UTC+1, Bill D wrote:

I don't get accident statistics from RAS comments.





Which would be an admirable position Bill, except that I took the trouble to go and find the accident reports from the BFU and BGA and posted a list of winch accidents in my comment, including sources and accident report numbers.



The data says that in the period 2006-12 a German pilot had much the same chance as a UK civilian pilot of being killed or injured in a winch accident.



Perhaps you'd let us know whether you now accept that conclusion, rather than claiming that UK winch launches are 10 times more dangerous?





Paul

Yes, I read your ramble. The operable statistic is number of accidents per number of launches - very simple and not included in your post.

For 2011 (The numbers just look worse for the UK the further back one goes.)
The Germans suffered one accident every 180,000 launches
The UK suffered one every 16,000 launches.

That's better than 10:1 and the number can't be twisted to show parity.

Bill,

You have still not confirmed if you are in fact the highly regarded Bill
Daniels?

I hope you are not, because each time you post, you loose any credibility
by being rude and obnoxious. Why is it necessary to make statements such as
"Yes, I read your ramble"?

If you are the "real Bill Daniels" please let us know.

If you are not, I am sure the "real Bill Daniels" will be royally ****ed
off that you have been letting the wider population of the gliding
community assume that you are whilst blighting his good name!

Justin Craig

At 13:43 14 October 2013, Bill D wrote:
On Monday, October 14, 2013 3:43:07 AM UTC-6, Paul Ruskin wrote:
On Monday, October 14, 2013 3:03:44 AM UTC+1, Bill D wrote:

I don't get accident statistics from RAS comments.





Which would be an admirable position Bill, except that I took the
trouble
to go and find the accident reports from the BFU and BGA and posted a
list
of winch accidents in my comment, including sources and accident report
numbers.



The data says that in the period 2006-12 a German pilot had much the
same
chance as a UK civilian pilot of being killed or injured in a winch
accident.



Perhaps you'd let us know whether you now accept that conclusion,
rather
than claiming that UK winch launches are 10 times more dangerous?





Paul

Yes, I read your ramble. The operable statistic is number of accidents
per
number of launches - very simple and not included in your post.

For 2011 (The numbers just look worse for the UK the further back one
goes.)
The Germans suffered one accident every 180,000 launches
The UK suffered one every 16,000 launches.

That's better than 10:1 and the number can't be twisted to show parity.

On Saturday, October 12, 2013 2:12:45 PM UTC-4, Don Johnstone wrote:
At 15:58 12 October 2013, wrote:

For a comprehensive discussion of this topic, search RAS for Fatality at

PGC. Read the post by Bill.



By all means read both references but I implore you to ignore the advice of

Bill, he is speaking about something he knows very little about.

Don -

What, specifically, is wrong with the article? Keeping my hand on the release during the ground roll has saved me from several potential ground loops. I have seen experienced contest pilots ground loop at contests because they could not release quickly. Others have died because of this. During the ground roll, pilots must be ready to release quickly - with their hand on the release - not trying to find it.

Bill

Paul did allow for the greater number of glider pilots and winch
launches in Germany and his figures are for fatal and serious
injury accidents only. As I have pointed out to you before, the
BGA accident statistics include all minor accidents and incidents
that are even vaguely related to winch launching and which do
not cause death or serious injury. There are probably 10 such
incidents for every serious accident which probably explains the
difference. There are lies, damn lies, and your interpretation of
accident!

Derek Copeland


At 13:43 14 October 2013, Bill D wrote:
On Monday, October 14, 2013 3:43:07 AM UTC-6, Paul Ruskin
wrote:
On Monday, October 14, 2013 3:03:44 AM UTC+1, Bill D
wrote:

I don't get accident statistics from RAS comments.


Which would be an admirable position Bill, except that I took
the trouble
to go and find the accident reports from the BFU and BGA and
posted a list
of winch accidents in my comment, including sources and
accident report
numbers.



The data says that in the period 2006-12 a German pilot had
much the same
chance as a UK civilian pilot of being killed or injured in a
winch
accident.



Perhaps you'd let us know whether you now accept that
conclusion, rather
than claiming that UK winch launches are 10 times more
dangerous?





Paul

Yes, I read your ramble. The operable statistic is number of
accidents per
number of launches - very simple and not included in your
post.

For 2011 (The numbers just look worse for the UK the further
back one
goes.)
The Germans suffered one accident every 180,000 launches
The UK suffered one every 16,000 launches.

That's better than 10:1 and the number can't be twisted to
show parity.

On Monday, October 14, 2013 2:43:37 PM UTC+1, Bill D wrote:

Yes, I read your ramble. The operable statistic is number of accidents per number of launches - very simple and not included in your post.


OK. I note that you've avoided my question, which was whether we you agree with "The data says that in the period 2006-12 a German pilot had much the same chance as a UK civilian pilot of being killed or injured in a winch accident. "

So, I'll ask again - do you agree with that conclusion? I've provided all the data you need, and its source, and the calculation is simple.

Whether you think that's a good "operable statistic" or not is different. I happen to think it is - because then we don't confuse different reporting of incidents.

Paul

There is some under-reporting of minor accidents in the UK, and I
expect in almost every country. There is no way of knowing the
extent, but if for example a German poster here were to admit to
knowledge of a minor accident not featured in their national figures,
it would confirm the issue in principle.

I believe that the figures for fatal accidents are unlikely to be
underreported, however. “Serious� accidents might have different
interpretations in different countries; I know of no way to be certain
of that.

So the only reliable statistics seem to me to be fatalities per
100,000 winch launches, which for the UK ought to include the air
cadet figures (no fatalities). I do not know if German data includes
an equivalent to air cadet data which would not be in DAeC
statistics. Perhaps somebody could advise on that.

Furthermore, the only fatalities relevant to these discussions are
those due to the winch launch itself, and not to (for example)
spinning off a final turn at the end of a flight that started with a
winch launch. Paul Ruskin’s analysis sought to do that, it seems to
me, by summarising the actual events.

Chris N

At 15:18 14 October 2013, Paul Ruskin wrote:
On Monday, October 14, 2013 2:43:37 PM UTC+1, Bill D
wrote:

Yes, I read your ramble. The operable statistic is number of
accidents
per number of launches - very simple and not included in your
post.


OK. I note that you've avoided my question, which was
whether we you agree
with "The data says that in the period 2006-12 a German pilot
had much the
same chance as a UK civilian pilot of being killed or injured in
a winch
accident. "

So, I'll ask again - do you agree with that conclusion? I've
provided all
the data you need, and its source, and the calculation is
simple.

Whether you think that's a good "operable statistic" or not is
different.
I happen to think it is - because then we don't confuse
different reporting
of incidents.

Paul


There can be no doubt when an injury or a fatality occurs and
such an event should always be reported and recorded in
gliding developed countries. I think we can all agree that no
country will over-report death and injury data. Therefore the
only way that comparison of death and injury rates between two
countries could *not* be based on valid operable statistics is if
you were to believe that one country is under-reporting them -
which would be an interesting propositon to put to the Germans.

John Galloway

John, Paul’s figures are for fatals and “serious� injuries, not all
injuries, AIUI. I would not be surprised if the definition of “serious�

differs.

Chris N

Definitions are important for statistical analysis. If a glider crashes
after flying a circuit from an 800ft cable break, is it a winching
accident or an approach and landing accident? If it spins after
successfully completing a winch launch, is that a winching accident
or a stall/spin accident? I would think that a serious injury would be
broken bones, head injury, deep lacerations and anything that
requires hospital treatment. So a bruised backside or a grazed
finger shouldn't really count.

Derek Copeland

At 16:22 14 October 2013, Chris Nicholas wrote:
John, Paul’s figures are for fatals and “serious� injuries, not all

injuries, AIUI. I would not be surprised if the definition of
“serious��

differs.

Chris N

Bill D has gone remarkably quiet!


At 15:18 14 October 2013, Paul Ruskin wrote:
On Monday, October 14, 2013 2:43:37 PM UTC+1, Bill D wrote:

Yes, I read your ramble. The operable statistic is number of
accidents
per number of launches - very simple and not included in your
post.


OK. I note that you've avoided my question, which was
whether we you agree
with "The data says that in the period 2006-12 a German pilot
had much the
same chance as a UK civilian pilot of being killed or injured in a
winch
accident. "

So, I'll ask again - do you agree with that conclusion? I've
provided all
the data you need, and its source, and the calculation is
simple.

Whether you think that's a good "operable statistic" or not is
different.
I happen to think it is - because then we don't confuse different
reporting
of incidents.

Paul