for the amateur meteorologists, question.

Basically, we don't understand meteorological conditions on the micro-micro level, as in the anomalies that happen for whatever reason in a tiny area. Of course, the "tiny" area is much smaller than can be predicted from satellite imagery, atmospheric analysis of airmass movement and surface disturbances. Essentially it all boils down to just flying in it and making some guesses about what is happening. The best competition pilots generally have many hours and good memories, enough so that they can recognize conditions they have experienced in the past and make assumptions and decisions based on prior knowledge.

For the rest of us, we are essentially clueless until someone with more data can provide a reasonable explanation. And even then, there is a good chance they are blowing smoke. Remember that it was less than 100 years ago (1933) that mountain wave formation was observed and explored by Wolf Hirth and Hans Deutschmann.

Trying to explain atmospheric phenomena requires lots of data, gathered a few bits at a time, and needs to be experienced by as many observers as possible to build even a little bit of understanding.

We used to say in hang gliding, "If we could see air, we'd probably quit flying!"