Ice meteors, climate, sceptics

Eric Hocking wrote:
"Brian Sandle" wrote in message

I
pointed out ath there is a correlation between the staged openings of
rights
of way, county by county, and the appearance of the first circles in
2001 in
those counties corresponding with those openings.

Where is the data?

In the crop circle database sightings and the announcements of countryside
access/restriction notices for each of the counties, as well as one of my
first posts giving the Hampshire and Wiltshire examples.

From your refs I only find the FP, BY, BR areas reopened Apr 11. Not the SU
area for the 11 May Hampshire circle.


But I am pointing out it could be world wide.
A point that is quite irrelevant to the discussion though. Blanket bans
on
countryside rights of way were only in place in Britain due to FMD in
2001.
What influence would these bans have on walking in a field in Canada or
New
Zealand?
Exactly my point.

?? I ask what influence would UK bans have on the rest of the world and you
answere "Exactly my point"? Care to elaborate on what exactly your point is
wrt to the above?

That there is something other than the bans going on.


Though NZ is southern hemisphere, the circles

What has NZ being in the SHemisphere got to do with circles appearing in the
NH?

YOU brought up NZ.

start appearing across nothern hemisphere in May in it was pretty
much the same in 2001 as 2000 or 2002.

Again - I was specifically talking about England and the effect FMD had on
circles built there. Introducing NZ or other countries to the discussion is
irrelevant to the point as countryside closures due to FMD were not in place
anywhere but the UK. Since you keep introducing this data - can you see any
difference in timing and distribution in the UK that differs in 2001 from
the patterns of other countries?

UK has always had a few more.

In 2001
May 22: 3 show from around the world. Italy, UK-Dorset, USA.
May 23: 0
May 24: Germany
May 25: 2 from around the world Germany, UK-Wiltshire
May 26: 0
May 27: 0
May 28: 0
May 29: 2 from UK, Wiltshire, Hertsfordshire
May 30: 3 from around world, UK-Wiltshire x2 (1 more than last year), Yugoslavia
May 31: 2 from UK-Wiltshire, same as last year.

There were none on May 29 in 2000, but 2000 had one on May 27 and 3 on May
20.

There was one indeterminate date in 2000, so from May 20 2000 to May 31 2000
there were 7 or 8 in UK.

From May 22 2001 to May 31 2001 there were 9 in UK.

Taking the small sample size I do not see any statistically significant
difference.

In 2001 from May 22 to May 31, only on one day did just one appear (Germany)
Either there were none (4 days) or two or more (5 days)

The fact remains that the first cropcircles to appear in BRITAIN,
were
found and probably created (as per the cropcircle database site) in
late/end of May. Just as the FMD footpath restrictions were being
eased.
It had been a wet season and crops got started late, so so did
circles.

Make up your mind. In your sentence above you state "across nothern
hemisphere in May in it was pretty much the same in 2001 as 2000 or 2002.".

So. Was it pretty much the same? Or was there a late "season"?

I wrote that before checking the actual dates. I do not see much difference
now.

Search your database for any country April 2001, there is only one
result,
and that is an acknowledged art work.
And this has what to do with my statement about the timing of crop
circles
appearing in May in areas where blanket bans on access to rights of way
were
being eased?
Some might have been arranged by farmers for extra income after the
F&M trouble.

Pure speculation. Do you have a cite for farmers receiving extra income
received in this manner?

Actually from your ref:
http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/newsrel/2001/010227d.htm
**************
Farmers who provide access for the general public to their farmland under the
MAFF "green schemes" - the Countryside Stewardship Scheme, the
Environmentally Sensitive Areas Scheme and the Countryside Access Scheme
-will not be expected to provide access during the present situation.
[...]
Under the Countryside Stewardship, Environmentally Sensitive Areas and
Countryside Access Schemes, farmers and other land managers receive payments
to provide access to their land for the general public. At present there are
around 1,500 agreements under these Schemes which together provide over 700
miles of permissive footpaths and over 14,000 hectares of open access,
principally to farmland.
**************

Couldn't remember where I had read it!

They started appearing world over in May.
As they do each year - but in Britain and specifically England (ie as
per my
initial point) they did not appear in fields that had blanket bans on
access. They only started to appear after these bans were lifted. At
least
address the point I am making rather than going off on irrelevant
tangents.

Data please.

Hampshire and Wiltshire examples have been provided, complete with URL to
government sources.

I can only see restrictions being removed on April 11.

That is correlation not proven causation.
Give reasonable alternatives to my point then. What caused the
different
timing and distribution of circle building in 2001?
Wet season.

So you *do* agree that there is a difference in the timing and distribution
of circle building in 2001 in England?

I thought there might be a couple of days shift, but now I don't think there
is a really significant shift.

The correlation between
the appearance of circles, county by county, and the lifting of blanket
bans
in those counties, while quite a coincidence, is certainly a compelling
coincidence. Have you compared the timing and distribution of circles
in
2001 when the bans were in place and those in 2000 and 2002 when no
countryside movement bans were in place?
Here are the data of circles, with the 13 May Hampshire one still in
F&M territory. You give the F&M clearance dates for the UK places

Hampshire never had any cases of FMD and only certain areas were restricted.
You actually cite the circle that I first noted to appear as restrictions
were being lifted in a FMD controlled area.

In Hampshire. How did it relate map-co-ordinate-wise, to restriction?

It was noted that the people
from CropCircleResearch were given permission to enter the field.

"The field was taped off as Foot and Mouth precautions still operate in
Hampshire despite not having had any cases so far during the outbreak."

The
restriction in the area was on fields with stock, not crops.
Hampshire was one of the first counties to open up it's footpaths and
started the reassessment in early April.
http://www.hants.gov.uk/cxpuxn/c1659.html

"Although Hampshire has no confirmed cases of Foot and Mouth disease, certain
areas are subject to infected area status, because of outbreaks in
neighbouring counties. These areas will not be eligible for re-opening until
restrictions are lifted in full.

In addition, all rural paths which continue to carry an official closed sign
remain closed until further notice."

Doesn't that mean a `taped off area'?

Lastly, the Old Winchester Hill Fort is English Nature land and access from
the road is on paths from that are not on grazed land, but on the nature
reserve. http://www.hants.gov.uk/maps/paths/su86.html. While English
Nature closed their reserves, they reviewed their options from early April
^^^^^^^^^^^
not May.

as well. While the following list does not include Old Windmill Hill, you
can see that they were reassessing access from that date.
http://www.english-nature.org.uk/news/story.asp?ID=263

April?

As you can see the property is also serviced by bridleways that did not have
the same restrictions as footpaths that crosed pasture or grazing land.

No I can't.

May 1 2000 Germany 2002 Germany
May6 2001 Netherlands,
2002 UK-Wiltshire

Well over by April 2002 - you stated yourself that 90% of paths were open by
September 2001, so no restrictions in 2002.

May 11 2000 Canada
May 13 2001 Germany,
UK-Hampshire (still F&M territory)

Discussed above. Access to the field was being granted.
http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/database/reports/uk01ab.html

May 14 2000 Germany Italy Malaysia UK-Kent UK-Wiltshire
May 15 2000 UK-Leicestershire
May 17 2000 Germany 2001 Canada
May 20 2000 Germany UK-Hampshire UK-Avon UK-Wiltshire 2002 Germany
May 22 2000 USA 2001 Italy UK-Dorset USA
May 24 2000 Germany 2001 Germany
May 25 2000 Germany x3 2001 Germany UK-Wiltshire
May 26 2002 Germany
May 27 2000 UK-Hampshire

Of the 26 above, only 9 occur in the UK and of them only 1 appears in 2001?

May 29 2001 UK-Wiltshire UK-Hertsforshire 2002 Canada
May 30 2000 UK-Wiltshire 2001 UK-Wiltshire x2 Yugoslavia 2003 Canada
May 31 2000 UK-Avon UK-Wilthsire 2001 UK-Wiltshire x2

Now - we're late in May (remember my point about the circles appearing late
in 2001 and after FMD restrictions were eased) and a whole plethora of
circles start to burst forward in the UK. Odd that Wiltshire should be one
of the starting points, the fact is it's the epicentre of the "phenomena"
and as I pointed out in my first post, the Hampshire and Wiltshire circles
were the first to appear for 2001 and this coincided with the easing of FMD
restrictions in those areas.

I don't figure that. Restrictions were coming off in April.

There were 6 in Wiltshire in 2001, 4 in 2001, 1 in 2002. Statistically it
says nothing significant.

plus in 2000 one in UK-Hampshire on an unknown date.
This as per
the cropcircle database site:

http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cg...K&l=&k=&m=Apri
l
There was nothing to stop croppies flying over at 1500ft plus
scouring
for circles.
Maybe they misunderstood.
Maybe, regardless, their statement that they were not able to fly over
fields to look for circles is untrue. To imply that this is a
reasonable
explanation for the lateness of sightings in 2001 holds much less water
than
my statement that there were not cirlces being made because the people
on
the *ground* who make the circles were banned from entering fields
during
that time.

I don't think there is much statistical difference between the

If you are to merely take gross number built, no, but if you look closer at
the timing and distribution there is.

Restrictions off in April and a couple extra in Wiltshire at the end of May.


years, even now I have mentioned weather.

This only after I provided the crop builders site who mentioned weather in
their 2001 review.

Bit misleading, as other things about their site.

In 2002 and 2000 tey point out that April is always a
"sedate start".



What's with these irrelevant tangents? I'm not talking about worldwide,
I'm
talking about the timing and distribution of circle building in England
2001
and what affect the FMD countryside ban had on it.

They seem to occur all around the world on the same days, sometimes.

But not in the UK in 2001. That is the whole point, thank you for
underlining that for me.

Also 2 occurred on May 31 in 2000 in UK, wihtout occurring in any other
country. But 2002 was rather thin. So no significant effect.

May 14, 15 2000 there were 6, then only one till May 20 when another
4 showed world-wide. May 24-25 4

So far you have admitted that:

a. There is a difference in the timing of the appearance of circles in the
UK in 2001 (weather you say)

Changed mind.

b. There is no statistical difference between the years.

Which is it?

I still do see see any significant difference.

Somewhere I read it is admitted that some farmers create them as they
get
grants for people to come on to their land.
Then you were misled.
Farmers do not receive grants for people coming onto their land. Who
would
be giving out these grants by the way?

Perhaps it is stewardship grants for farmers farming in national
parks. More visitors more money?

Speculation - please provide a cite. The stewardship scheme is for farmers
to set aside more land NOT to have crops on.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/2002/021107b.htm. And certainly the
government would not be coughing up cash to pay for vandalised crops.

'Under the Countryside Stewardship, Environmentally Sensitive Areas and
Countryside Access Schemes, farmers and other land managers receive payments
to provide access to their land for the general public. At present there are
around 1,500 agreements under these Schemes which together provide over 700
miles of permissive footpaths and over 14,000 hectares of open access,
principally to farmland.'

So how is funding calculated?


Farmers can claim some insurance for vandalism, it does not cover the
cost
of the lost crop. Anecdotally, I have heard that circle builders have
offered some cash compensation at times, but the farmers lose more in
damaged crop than they make up in these nonexistent grants.
About all they can do is ask for an "entry fee" from people who want to
access their fields to view a circle.

Which they would need after F&M,

What would who need after F&M? Entry fees to their fields? This
practically always takes the form of an honour box - it would hardly cover
the crop loss.

Unless they could then claim they had had public on their land.

Though from 20th May 2000 till end
of May there were 7 or 8 in UK and in 2001 from 22 May till end 8.

It's also important to look at *where* they were, not just the number for a
month.

Covered.

Then the scientific tests should be different.
What tests are these? Why should they be different? And what has that
got
to do with the farmer anecdote above?

Some look for haematite attracted by magnetic effects. Othe search
for Nitric Oxide formed by extremely short duration electric fields.
Some look for changes in cellular structure.

OK, but that only answered my first question. You said the tests should be
different - why?

Show if the crops were the work of hoaxsters or not.