IFR rating?

"tony" wrote in message
...
If you're current, if the forecast at your destination is well above your
personal minimums, if you have a solid gold alternate, no imbedded
thunderstorms, no icing, no unusual turbulence reported, why whouldn't you
go?

IFR in those conditions is a lot easier IMO than VFR.

IMHO, the go/no-go decision is being made constantly, not just before
takeoff.

I agree with those who say that the instrument rating makes the
decision-making more complicated. I don't see this as necessarily a bad
thing, but it is the price of the increased utility. Basically, when flying
IFR there are more potential ways to run into flight hazards you can't see
or predict than when VFR, at least in a typically-equipped four-seater
piston airplane that most of us are flying.

Forecast above minimums? Great...forecasts can be wrong and you won't find
out until you get there and try to fly the approach. "Solid gold
alternate"? What's that? In flying, there are no guarantees. No imbedded
thunderstorms? Well, I guess if you have radar and/or a lightning detector,
you could know this. Most of us don't. No icing? Impossible to know for
sure until you fly through. No unusual turbulence reported? Past
performance is no guarantee of future returns and when flying IMC, you have
fewer clues to hint at the possibility, since you can't see visual signs of
wind conditions.

When flying day VFR, you can see outside the airplane and avoid most weather
conditions that would be a problem. Not all people do, of course, and you
still have wind to deal with. But even with wind, for the observant pilot
there are plenty of clues. Night VFR is harder, but with conservative
decision-making and proper planning, you can avoid flying into clouds, and
you can visually avoid the rest of the stuff that might cause a problem.

When flying IFR, real IFR that is, you are consistently in situations in
which it's impossible to know for sure what hazards are present until you
personally are in the area of the potential hazard. With extremely
conservative decision making it's possible to avoid these issues, but then
the utility of IFR rating becomes only slightly better than the VFR rating.
Hardly worth the effort. Some real work needs to be put into the decision
making to ensure you avoid these problems while still getting the usefulness
of the instrument rating it offers.

Bottom line: for VFR go/no-go the decision matrix is much simpler than that
found for IFR flights. To me, a more complicated decision matrix means more
complicated decision making.

Pete