How safe is it, really?

This has been an interesting thread! My main interest has been watching
pilots take one set of statistics that show what they want to see, and then
to rationalize that they are safer yet! We see people using the fatal
accident rate for GA as a whole which is much safer than the flying that
people actually are engaged in. Every other type of GA flying (training,
crop dusting, business) has a lower fatal accident rate than personal
flying, but that doesn't deter pilots from using the "better" numbers
anyway! Then they rationalize that they are safer yet because they don't
engage in certain behaviors.

Here are the numbers:

Total GA
Number of hours: 25,800,000
Fatal accidents: 351
Fatal Accident Rate: 1.36/100,000 hrs

Turbine Business GA
Number of Hours 6,446,000
Fatal Accidents: 17
Fatal Accident Rate .26/100,000hrs

Total GA less Turbine Business GA (light GA)
Number of Hours 19,354,000
Fatal Accidents 334
Fatal Accident Rate: 1.73

"Peronal Flying" (from Nall Report)
Hours 47% of light GA
Fatal Accidents 72% of light GA
Fatal Rate: 2.65/100,000hrs.

So the bottom line here is that the accident rate for personal flying is
about twice the figure that pilots like to start with! I admit to using a
mix of 2002, 2003 and five year averages to reach these conclusions but the
accident rates have been fairly consistant over the years.

http://web.nbaa.org/public/ops/safety/20041130.php
http://www.ibac.org/Library/ElectF/s...riefissue2.pdf
http://ntsb.gov/aviation/Table10.htm
http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/03nall.pdf

Wake up guys! It is what it is!

Mike
MU-2


"Captain Wubba" wrote in message
om...
Hello

I'm a flight instructor, and I often get asked this question by
prospective students, their family members, and interested people in
general.

Other people here have given you some numbers that pan out to about 1
accident per 2,200,000 miles flown and one fatal accident per
13,000,000 miles flown. These are based on a conservative 125 knots
average cruise for the 'average GA' plane and 1.15 statute miles per
nautical mile, which kind of 'normalizes' the data in relation to 'car
miles'. (Please no flames from purists...these are ballpark numbers).

As an in instructor, one thing I look for in evaluating the 'safety'
of any given pilot is his or her personality. And this is relevant to
the question you asked. Why? Because in general aviation, avout 80% of
accidents are caused by 'pilot error', and of those about 2/3rds are
attributable directly to one of 3 common mistakes: Low level
maneuvering (buzzing), fuel mismanagement (running out of gas), and
flying VFR into IFR conditions. These three errors cause a great many
deaths, and are *entirely* preventable. This data is taken, by the
way, from an annual report on general aviation safety called the 'Nall
Report'.

A person's approach to solving problems, managing risk, and dealing
with situations is reflected (or contained, depending on how you look
at it) in their personality. And the way a person approaches the
problems and issues of flying determines how likely he or she is to
find themselves in a position where one of these errors is likely.

Let me give you an example. I know an airplane partnership at my local
airport. It is odd, because the 2 partners are *entirely* different in
their approach to flying. They are both well-educated, good men, with
solid technical skills. Both are IFR rated, and both have several
hundred hours of experience. But one is *very* conservative in his
approach to flying. He never lands his plane with less than at least
one full hour of fuel in his tanks, even if that means landing 10
minutes from his destination to refuel. He's IFR rated, but never flys
in conditions that approach even marginal VFR. He never 'buzzes' or
acts ostentatiously in any manner. He is as conservative a pilot as I
have ever met. He's very skilled, and I think he's *very* unlikely to
find himself in one of the situations I mentioned above...which
accounts for a *very* large percentage of aircraft accidents.

His partner (also a very skilled pilot), has run a tank dry (over
water, at night) because he wasn't paying enough attention to his fuel
situation. He has had to put 57 gallons into a 60-gallon-capacity
plane more than once, flys *very* marginal VFR (i.e. 'pretend VFR'),
and flew in solid instrument conditions before he had completed his
instrument rating. He's buzzed lakes and fields and houses, and has a
reputation around the airport as an 'accident waiting to happen'.

The first parter's personality, training, habits, and discipline make
him a very safe pilot. he is *very* unlikely to encounter the
conditions that kill over 1/2 of all GA pilots who die each year. The
other partner is *very* likely to encounter them at some point.

I guess I am asking 'which is your husband'? Earning his instrument
rating *will* make him a better pilot. Every pilot I have ever flown
with has become a better and more skilled pilot during their
instrument training. But his safety or lack thereof is *much* more
heavily influenced by his decision making and his approach to flying
than by any rating or certificate he has.

If your husband is a conservative decision maker, with the discipline
to stick to reasonable 'personal minimums' and firm guidelines about
fuel, weather conditions, personal health, etc., then his flying is
*very* safe. Probably at least as safe (per mile) as driving a car,
and possibly safer. Even factoring in the 'idiot contingent' (as one
of my fellow CFIs call them), flying is quite safe. If you are flying
with a disciplined, thoughtful, and well-trained pilot is is much
safer, and probably a safer means of getting distant places than
driving (highway travel is significantly more dangerous than local
travel).

Talk to your husband and his CFI about your concerns. They are valid
issues, and nobody will dismiss them trivially. But safety depends on
many things. His IFR training will likely make him a safer pilot...and
if he has the personal characteristics and the discipline to avoid the
'voluntary' situations that bring with them significant danger, I
think his safety and that of those flying with him is probably well
within almost everyone's 'comfort region'.

Cheers,


Cap


(June) wrote in message
. com...
I need some information from people 'in the field'. My husband has
his private license and is just starting to work on his IFR for
recreational flying. He wants to buy into a plane partnership, saying
he will be saving money rather than renting.

We have 2 little girls. I worry for his safety as it seems there is
another small plane crash every other time you turn on the news. I
think he should focus on this hobby when the kids are older, not when
he has such a young family.

Your opinions would be appreciated.