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On Thu, 24 Feb 2005 22:49:23 GMT, "Colin W Kingsbury"
wrote: "Jimbob" wrote in message .. . The single biggest problem (IMHO) in GA right now is student pilot attrition. IIRC, half of students who show up for a second lesson drop out before soloing, half of those who solo drop out before getting their certificate, or somehting like that. A good friend of mine is a classic case study. He graduated 1 year behind me in college. I started working in journalism, he in software. He took a couple lessons and decided he wanted to do it, but got busy and didn't follow through. Fast forward three years, I'm in software too and he's working for me (don't ask me how I managed that one). Anyway, I started working on my license and had it in about a year. He started, and since our office was near an airport and he had a very understanding boss, he very quickly soloed and then got signed off for unsupervised. Well, things got busy again, and it was well over a year ago since he last flew, and I wouldn't be surprised if another year passes before he flies again. Anyway, here's a guy in his twenties, making great money, drives a $40,000 german car, and is enthused, but simply ran out of time. With Sport Pilot, he'd likely have gotten his license (he'd put in about 35 hours when he stopped) or been within spitting distance. Now he can rent a plane and take a friend for a joyride on the weekend, which is all most PPLs around here do anyway. This is a lot more likely to keep someone in the fold than not. That's a good scenerio, but I think Sportpilot needs a little more than that. I think the point of the license was two fold. First bring homebuilts into the fold. Second, the combination of LSA and sportpilot was supposed to reduces the COST of learning and flying which I think anyone here would agree is expensive. It needs to become the "Everyman's" license so your blue collor worker can get his ass in the air. I don't expect a plane in evey pot, but In a perfect world, anyone that has an urge and a job should be able ot afford it. IMHO, that is what GA needs to survive. much less than $80K. However, these prices are using FAA certified engines and instruments. Actually, getting rid of certification of airframes is much more important, since there are far more airframes than there are engines. You'll have 15 different airplanes, all using a Rotax 912, so Bombardier *can* spread costs pretty widely. Ditto instruments, which aren't that big a deal anyway. What the hell do you need a glass panel in a sportplane for anyway? The most fun I ever had was in a PA-18 in Alaska, and if I looked at anything besides the tach and ASI, the instructor in back yelled at me. Engines are equally if not more important. The cost of buying an aircraft is just the beginning (from what I am told). What would happen to the market if engines only cost $6K That's the cost of a brand new Porsche 911 (approx 1991 model) replacement engine that produces 250HP and has full computer control. I use the Porsche engine as an example of a low production run engine that is designed for regular high performance, built like a tank and is well known for going 200K before a rebuild. Wouldn't you think that a lighter, fadec controlled engine that only produced 180HP could be built for that?. How about a 120HP rotax killer? You get that, and the cost of LSA power plants just halved. Your aircraft maintenance just reduced drastically. A rebuild would never exceed the cost of an engine plus installation. I don't neccessarily want glass, but alot of people do. All I'm after is cheap technological growth. I see FADEC, GPS w/ WAAS approaches and Sirius WX as important technologies for fuel efficiency, safety and convienence. Tech growth is cheaper without FAA certification. Airframes are expensive, toys in the cockpit less so. The cheaper the accessories, the more potential buyers. More buyers, more revenue. More rev., brings more people entering the industry to make money. More competitors brings lower prices and more innovation. Industries that stagnate, die. GA is currently perking up a bit due the above technolgoes (my impression) and I hope consesus stanards fuel this growth. And of course if Dateline runs a story about those new "dangerous uncertified" airplanes. Like those dangerous exploding trucks they did a story on some years ago? Or those dangerous charter helicopters they tried to rent while carrying a bag full of box cutters? Actually, Dateline's ratings are in the s---er along with all the newsmags. There's serious talk inside the nets about replacing them with reality shows that cost less to produce. The only costant in the universe is that if GA takes off, we will see one of these "news specials" I only hope that John Stossel (my personal hero) is the one doing it. |
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