Night flying in the mountians in a cessna 150,

"Michael" wrote in message
oups.com...
Thomas Borchert wrote:
The odds will
catch up with you eventually.

You say we're ALL going to win the lottery?

Sure, if we play long enough.

That's not true. The longer you play, the more opportunities you have to
win. But each time you play, you have the same exact chance to win (all
else being equal, which means ignore the variations in chance due to
different numbers of participants, etc), and there is NO length of time you
can play that will guarantee a win.

Fly long enough, and an engine WILL fail.

Likewise, there is no length of time you can fly that will guarantee an
engine failure. Just as important: it doesn't matter how many hours you
have, the chance of an engine failure is exactly the same (all else being
equal) on each flight. Once you successfully complete a flight without an
engine failure, you can ignore that flight (and every single one prior) for
the purpose of assessing your risk on the next flight.

It seems that some pilots are going around thinking that the longer they
fly, the closer they get to their fated engine failure (or other problem).
That's just not true.

Mechanical problems do happen, and an engine failure can happen as a result.
An engine failure is a very real possibility, but it is also very unlikely.
But then, so is having your wing fall off. Or running into another
airplane, or a bird, or something. There are lots of risks associated with
flying, many of which the pilot has little or no control over. We accept
them because the actual likelihood is low.

IMHO, there is no clear cut "this is just plain too dangerous for anyone to
do", and that includes issues like flying over mountains, at night, IFR, in
a single engine airplane. It's entirely possible to have a flying career
comprising only IFR flights over mountains at night in single-engine
airplanes and still never have to deal with an engine failure, never mind
one over hostile terrain.

Besides, anyone arguing against doing that needs to expand the prohibited
class of aircraft to include any twin engine aircraft with a single-engine
service ceiling lower than the terrain (or MEA/MOCA/MRA) being overflown.

Pete