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Five years ago, I would have agreed wholeheartedly with Gordon. Heck,
three years ago I would have agreed. But these days I have a whole lot better idea what it takes to develop, tool, and manufacture aircraft components. At this point I think I qualify for a .org domain on the basis of non-profit operation. An aircraft, even a light sport aircraft, represents a whole lot more than a pile of aluminum or composite materials. It has to be designed and developed. And even if it's not certificated, it does have to be tested. It has to be manufactured. And, for most folks, the designer, developer, tester, and manufacturer all want to get paid for their work. As do the companies that supply the materials. As does the landlord for the facility where the development and manufacturing takes place. As do the companies that sell the engines, bearings, transparencies, office supplies, and hardware that it takes to manufacture the aircraft. As does the bank that rents the money to the company so that they can buy stuff and generally get by. It all adds up, and it sure as hell adds up faster than anyone wants it to. But airplanes are basically hand-built, and will continue to be so for the forseeable future. Real volume production? That's for consumer items sold into markets where a walk through the oceans of most souls would scarcely get your feet wet. And, Gordon, I wish I had good news, but all signs point the other way: Aircraft take energy to make, and energy costs are rising acros the board. For the podunky little glider kit I'm developing, when I cost it out, about 25% of its price tag is hooked straight to oil. So even if I can hit its price target of $17,500 Y2K, balanced for inflation and oil it comes in at about $26000 of today's dollars (16 September 2005). The signs are that oil will likely (no promises!) tend to plateau out there for a while, but I don't see it taking any major dives. And the next time it starts to rise, I'm guessing there will be no reversals until we're buying French fusion technology and slurrying coal and old asphalt to make plastic resins. Sure, if you don't mind investing some effort and taking some risks, you can likely beat the market by a substantial margin. Just choose out a reputable design, buy the kit, build it and fly. But don't count the hours of time it takes to build, and for sure never multiply that effort by any decent hourly wage. Hand-building stuff never comes either easy or cheap. Thanks, and best regards to all bob K. http://www.hpaircraft.com/hp-24 |
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