Fuel prices

I saw an interesting presentation on C-span yesterday by an analyst
from Deutsche Bank. He made the following points.
1. Average prediction from multiple sources of oil prices: $60 for
2006, $40-50 after. Consensus is a 10% chance of future oil at $20,
also a 10% chance of $100.
2. The critical problem is lack of refining capacity. Unless the
price of refined fuel makes it worthwhile for companies to endure the
hassles of building new refining capacity, the price of fuel will not
decline.
3. A worldwide recession would help in reducing demand and price
(cheery thought).