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On 2005-09-17 13:48:57 -0400, Evan Carew said:
Interesting economic proposal there. I wonder if its time for the experimental community to consider something along the lines of a few, open, i.e. GPLd designs, which manufacturers can build standardized parts and tooling for. Already been done. The Gyrobee gyroplane, developed as a documentation package by Dr Ralph McTaggart. Parts available from several vendors, notably StarBee Gyros of Worcester, Massachusetts. http://taggart.glg.msu.edu/gyro/gbee.htm There is another UL gyro project, Tim Blackwell's Jyro Deer, that Tim has promised to open-source when he has it sorted. I'm not aware of any f/w but it's a really, really good idea, Evan, isn't it? Fundamental problems with LSA pricing are perception problems, IMHO: 1. existing kit buyers (& wannabees) are mostly cheap charlies, and or walter mittys. 2. ergo, they will never buy at any price under which a product can be made. As Bob Kuykendall pointed out, these things are built by hand (volumes too small for automation, until you're Cirrus size). 3. Economies from US + Euro standardization won't happen. The US market is already resisting the european JAR VLA designs available under SLSA because they are cramped for large, fat Americans. (as one vendor told me, "these planes are built for bony French asses," eh.) . US allows 600 KG, Euros 450 -- that's a difference which will allow (require) differentiation. Indeed the first designs to US (not Euro) specs are happening already. 4. You can build a plane for relatively low money now (Fly Baby, Zenith from plans) and most choose not to. A lot of people still seem to be looking for the four-seat 200-knot STOL plane they can build for $30k in 200 hours and power with an old Corvair engine. It never existed and it's never going to. 5. If LSA succeeds it will be because people who are not in aviation now come in. Compare what you can do in a high end SLSA and what you can do in a sailboat. Compare prices new. These planes are not competing with a stack of wood and a set of Pietenpol plans, they are competing with boats, snowmobiles and ATVs, and other outdoor recreations. 6. Some of the statements by the original poster, about Cirrus specifically, are not true. The unrecoverability from spin is one of them (Cirrus SR-20 was spun at least once in testing and recovered with normal inputs, opposite rudder, neutral ailerons and forward stick). It's true a full spin series was not done, and it's also true a full spin series is not required by FAR 23. Most of us fly planes that are placarded against spins -- I daresay all of us have flown a 172, which is placarded against spins in some conditions (i.e. flaps down -- the rudder is masked in that case and recovery is compromised). The P-51 Mustang is placarded against spins with the fuselage tank full (many privately held Mustangs have this tank removed). Remedial action in the PIF (1940s version of a dash one) is to bail out! In re Cirrus, salesmen for a competing product were spreading the "Cirrus has a chute because it is unsafe" canard in 2001-03 and have been directed to stop by the manufacturer of their product, cause it ain't true. The chute was part of the very first designs for what ultimately became the SR-20. It was from the outset a key component of the Klapmeiers' safety vision for their aircraft. The VK-30 kit and VK-50 may have had nonstandard spin characteristics -- I don't know -- but they were withdrawn from the market, and represent an earlier, and much less mature, vision than the SR series. 7. The entrepreneurs that build kit aircraft or make plans available are taking immense risks for measly returns. The average kit impresario would have done better putting his money in Enron stock. I know one guy who finished his prototype after years of labor, built his production tooling, then lost the prototype in a ground fire -- meanwhile, people who looked at his very capable kit aircraft kept telling him he was charging too much for kits -- the price they wanted to pay was less than his cost of materials. I know another fellow who got more magazine covers than you could shake a stick at with his beautiful, powerful, roomy kit. You can't eat magazine covers. Or Gold Lindys for that matter. He sold a number of kits that you can count on your fingers, and decided to build UAVs for a customer that appreciated his efforts, was straight with him, and paid well -- the government, of all things -- rather than customers who disparaged his efforts, lied, and stiffed him. He would love to offer kits again some day but he has a family that deserves better of him. The most successful kit companies like Van's and RANS to name two, are barely getting by, by the standards of modern industry. Exxon made 9.9 percent last quarter. Bank of America, almost 30%. What did Van's make? Payroll, I would guess. The only people that ever made 30% in this industry did it by selling stuff they didn't have to sell (we could all name the names). 8. For those that offer these products in this fickle market, the only possible explanation is that they have emotional reasons for doing so. For that, I am grateful. Think about what Richard van Grunsven has done for our sport, and think about what he could have done for himself if he had applied that level of effort to working for Bank of America stacking up someone's gold teeth in a vault, or for Exxon or somebody. cheers -=K=- Rule #1: Don't hit anything big. |
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