Avgas Where is the ceiling?

On Mon, 24 Apr 2006 09:22:55 -0700, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


"David Dyer-Bennet" wrote in message
...
"Matt Barrow" writes:

"Dylan Smith" wrote in message
...
On 2006-04-24, Roger wrote:
both with the latter being the most likely. I think though that the
bio fuels will probably outdo the Hydrogen overall in the big
picture.. It's easier to increase trucking incrementally than it is to
increase the power grid.

I think a lot of the hydrogen advocates are missing the massive change
to infrastructure needed - we would need:

- new cars

Average turnover is five years.

Maybe, but those 5-year-old cars aren't junked, they're bought and
driven for another 5 years by less wealthy people.

Most of them are around for another 10 to 15 years as either a second
car, a beater to drive to work, or driven by, as you say, the less
wealthy/fortunate.


Yes...so? The point is for the majority of vehicles, not a complete purging
of the inventory.


It may depend on where you go, but I'd guess that in this region,
Michigan which is the home of the US auto industry, that well more
than half the cars on the road are quite a bit older than 5 years. My
fore-runner is a 99.

Near as I have been able to pin it down the current average is some
where between 5 and 10 years which means even the experts aren't sure
as that's a pretty wide bracket of 2:1

People are keeping cars much longer than they did just a decade ago
and that was longer than the decade before that.

40 years ago we considered a car with 60,000 miles on it to be ready
for the junk yard. Now 60 to 90,000 is common. My wife's old
mini-mini van has almost 200,000 and it's still going strong and gets
around 34 MPG although for most of it's live it was just a tad under
40 MPG,. Now it goes through oil pretty fast, but it leaks out
instead of getting by the rings. It doesn't smoke a bit.

I used to trade often. I'd have saved a small fortune and I'd be rich
if I'd learned to drive them till the wheels fell off.

Although the average turnover was 5 years, I'd think it's a lot longer
than that now. Even in that case I think turn over is the wrong term.
At one time people did purchase a new car on average every five years,
but the old ones did not leave the roads.





- new filling stations

Like when we went to unleaded from Regular and "Hi Test"?

No; hydrogen gas takes very different handling than gasoline, whereas
leaded gas could go through the same pumps just fine (we decided to
make them change the nozzles to prevent mistakes that would ruin the
catalytic converters).

Wanna guess how many filling stations add that capability (especially when
it becomes pretty much mandatory) versus how many are built from scratch?

Some one is going to have to provide the money and most of the
stations, or even chains aren't going to be able to come up with that
kind of cash. To install a cryogenic storage and pumping facility is
no small chore. It will be the end of the "pump it yourself" era. No
one in their right mind would trust the average driver to fill a tank
with liquid H2. OTOH it can be stored in Metal Hydrides (better known
as metal sponges) for use, but it does not come off at a high rate.
That would take some form of heating and it'd be a gas fill under
pressure. The pressure would come from heating the Metal Hydride.

There are a lot of safety regulations pertaining to the storage and
use of liquid, or even high pressure N2. If purchasing it from a
station rather than the small generating stations mentioned earlier
it's going to be *expensive* due to all the safety precautions and
extra people required, let alone the investment in materials.

- new transport
- new ways of storage (I'm sure keeping hydrogen as a cryogenic liquid
is just not gonna work for everyday cars and trucks)

As I said, Metal Hydrides. They actually hold more H2 by volume than
they take up. In a wreck that ruptures the tank the H2 is given off
slowly. But again the Metal Hydrides in that quantity are very
*expensive*.


Like when we went from coal to whale oil to petro-based oils...?

Whale oil was never had a large nitch in the market. I think It was
briefly used in the early 1900's. Prior to that is was used a lot when
ships were made from trees.


I don't think whale oil replaced coal for much of anything.

Wow! Trivia pursuit champion.

Now try "Innovation Therapy".

Oh, hell...keep your high gas prices and stunted economies heading for the
trash bin...

We in the US don't have high gas prices. We've just been spoiled by
having "cheap" gas for so many years. According to the economists
consumer confidence is high, and the stock market is in good shape (if
you don't have the same stocks I have). However one more hurricane
season with results any where near last year's and that is subject to
change.

BTW, the difference between our prices and the much higher prices in
many countries does not even out through hidden taxes. Here the
average person pays less than a 1/3 of their income into taxes of one
form or another while in Europe "as I recall" it's over 50%. So not
only is the cost of gas much cheaper, taxes are less, and so is the
cost of living on average.

BTW, last week I paid $2.97 for car gas and $3.05 for 100 LL.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com