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In article ,
Jose wrote: True, the worst case is they shoot a couple of nukes off, let's say one in Asia, another to the US...followed with massive retaliation by the US. Were the US to even =attempt= to retalliate with nukes would be a disaster and make us the enemy of the world . . . I think it is possible to contain the Korea threat. It is simple, it is based on known principles (nations wanting power over other nations), and it is basically military. 1) I'd sure like to understand what the South Korean govt and the South Korean people -- the players who really right up against the DMZ -- really, really think about the whole North Korean situation? The SK govt is by no means intrinsically stupid or evil, and the SK people are fairly free, well informed about the world, and quite savvy. Together they've done very well in other areas; I wonder what their views on this overwhelming and overhanging situation are. 2) As for the nuclear situation, viewed more broadly: IMHO the US nuclear policy should be: a) Decide, state explicitly and openly, and try to make clear we really mean that our nation's basic nuclear policy is "No first use, ever"; b) As a corollary of this, openly and verifiably get rid of all existing tactical nukes (bunker-busters, artillery shells, other nonsense) and terminate all programs developing such things; c) At the same time maintain a modest but adequate array of strategic nukes and especially the means to deliver them anywhere, any time, worldwide and on quite short notice; d) And finally let it be known, behind the scenes if not openly, that the implicit corollary of "no first use" is pretty sure to mean, for us, "more or less guaranteed (and forceful) second use", whether as retaliation for a first-use attack on us, or as punishment for a first use by someone else against someone else (or even, implied between the lines, as punishment for an "innocent" nation that had let terrorist elements use their nation as a base for planning or preparing a nuclear terrorist act carried out against us). The purpose of (a) and (b) is to set a tone, set an example, get morally aligned with the rest of the world. The purpose of (c) and (d) is twofold: --Make clear to rational rogue governments (e.g., Pakistan) that spending resources on nuclear weapons will be ultimately worse than useless; all they can do with them in the end is destroy themselves. --More important, make clear to *all* governments, friend, foe, or just on the sidelines that it's essential for their own long-term well-being to control rogue groups who may try to operate within their borders, and to join in international efforts to control rogue states, rational or otherwise. This last point seems to me probably the most important one of all. |
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