Oshkosh arrivals

On Mon, 24 Jul 2006 14:42:30 -0700, "Peter Duniho"
wrote in
::

And in spite of those who would like to think we pilots are an elite group,
there's about the same proportion of stupidity in aviation as in the general
population.

I find that statistic difficult to accept; perhaps I don't exactly
understand what you mean by "the same proportion." (Are you saying
that 50% of airmen have two digit IQs?)

The vast majority of the general population would find mastering the
art and science of aviation beyond their ken. Even metrology alone is
incomprehensible to most folks.

Now, it would surprise me if the "10 deaths per year", or even the "6 deaths
per year" claim is supported by historical data.

I thought the time period under discussion was the week or so during
AirVenture, not per year.

2005 Nall Report information:

http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/nall.html
Total Fixed-Wing GA accidents in 2004: 1,413, 290 fatal. (pp 2)

Personal Flying Accidents: 748 total/ 168 fatal

Personal flying (for example: visiting friends or family,
traveling to a vacation home or for recreation) represents about
half (50.1 percent) of all GA flying (involving fixed-wing general
aviation aircraft weighing 12,500 pounds or less), but
accounts for 73.8 percent of fatal and 70.6 percent of nonfatal
accidents (Figure 25). This type of flying accounted for nearly
three-quarters (72.9 percent) of all weather-related accidents,
and 75.6 percent of weather-related fatal crashes. Fuel management
is another challenge for pilots on personal flights; three out of
four of the total, and 87.5 percent of the fatal fuel management
accidents occurred during this type of flying. Personal flights
also accounted for 72.1 percent of all descent/approach accidents
(77.1 percent of the fatals), and 72.9 percent of landing
accidents (88.9 percent of the fatals).

But even so, with fatalities running around 2000/year (a little less recently),

Where did you get that figure? The total number of GA ACCIDENTS in
2004 was 1,413, and the total number of fatal accidents was 290
totaling 510 fatalities.

given the huge amount of GA traffic at Oshkosh, I'm not even convinced that 6
or 10 deaths per year is all that out of line with the overall GA population.

First, we should be discussing the number of FATAL ACCIDENTS occurring
at AirVenture, not the number of FATALITIES (for it is an accident
that generates a news story or NTSB report). That error (290 vs 2,000
[your figure]) is probably the source of your lack of concern at the
appalling rate of fatal accidents that occur as a result of
AirVenture.

In any event, one would have to have statistics about the AirVenture
accidents to validate your assertion against the Nall Report.

What's really annoying is that this sort of predictable outcome is somehow
considered unusually bad by those outside aviation (or those within, for
that matter).

The general public bestows a smattering of god status on pilots; after
all, we do hold human lives in our hands to a much greater extent than
say, a bus driver. When we fail to meet those expectations, it shakes
the public trust they have placed in us.

People kill themselves doing stupid things all the time. The
only reason we don't have more motor vehicle fatalities each year is that
the vehicles themselves have been made so much safer. We have more
accidents than ever (due to rising population), but fatalities have remained
roughly level at around 50,000 per year. But is that because people have
gotten smarter? Nope...they're just as dumb as they've always been. We've
just engineered some of the risk out of driving.

That, and the fact that the velocities involved and unforgiving nature
of aviation tend to make what would be a routine matter to a motorist
(say engine failure), a life and death emergency for air travel.

Similar advancements have not made it to aviation,

With the obvious exception of the ballistic parachute, XM real-time
weather information, GPS navigation, ....

But if the accident rate at Oshkosh, or in GA generally, reflects poorly on
pilots specifically, then it reflects poorly on humanity in general. Those
who look down upon all the people causing accidents forget just what kind of
animal a human is after all.

Like I said at the beginning of this follow up article, the general
population doesn't have to pass a written and practical examination
that airmen must. I believe that sets airmen apart from the general
population, just as college grads are a considerably unique group
compared to the general population.

But, my point is, that here we have pilots making a rather large
national statement (AirVenture), but killing themselves in the public
view while doing it. That can't be good PR for GA.