Are pilots really good or just lucky???

"Gerald Sylvester" wrote in message
om...
Peter MacPherson wrote:

Comments like this woman taking their daughter across
the ocean is and into IMC really get me thinking. Flying hard IMC in
a bug smasher whether it is a C152 or a SR22 or a certified Known Ice
C210 with friends and family seems almost as bad as ferry crossing. You
might have some more airports to land at in case of an emergency but if
is hard IMC with 300 AGL ceilings, you really have the odds stacked
against you in both cases.


IMHO the thing to think about in this case is pilot failure more than
airplane failure. Seems to me most IMC accidents are either CFIT or spatial
disorientation. Though some appear to start when a mechanical or other
problem consumes the pilot's attention, many if not most seem to lack
aggravating factors.

So with my reasoning which certainly could be far off base, I guess my
question is, do you consider taking friends and family into
hard IMC that risky. I wouldn't take friends and family without another
pilot on a flight down to minimums but I'm wondering if IFR in anything
but turbine powered aircraft is just outright stupid in a way.


Personally I would not launch unless ceilings were 1000' and it looked like
I could cruise on top. But, the weather can always get worse, so you might
find a ceiling of 500' and be in the soup all the way. I don't have
different minimums for myself than for passengers, I don't want either of us
getting killed.

IMHO proficiency is the first thing to consider. If you never fly passengers
in IMC then it's not unlikely you don't fly much IMC period. In that case
you might want to stay out of the clouds too.

-cwk.