A disturbing statistic

"Jim Macklin" wrote
in message ...
| Much of the risk is controllable. Weather is never a
| surprise anymore. modern weather satellites and automated
| observations are not perfect, but some caution and honest
| self-evaluation of a pilot's actual skill level could
| eliminate many accidents.
|
| JFK Jr. died because he did not have the skill to make the
| flight under the conditions which existed at the time he
| actually made the flight. The airplane was just fine, the
| weather was OK for an IFR rated pilot or a VFR pilot who
had
| be taught properly how to use the equipment available. He
| had lots of instruction, maybe too much instruction and
not
| enough developed judgment. Perhaps the instructors he had
| used did not have "real" experience and thus failed to
teach
| the procedures that could have saved his plane and the
| passengers.
|
| Lidle had a fast airplane and a CFI. But it appears they
| simply flew into box without any proper planning. Slow
| flight and steep turns, evaluation of the wind, knowing
the
| East River procedures would have saved his life. Using
the
| radio to get a clearance would have too. What will never
be
| known, were they looking at the GPS track or out the damn
| windows at the river and shore line?
|
| You can practice the East River turn anywhere, pick a road
| or river and practice a 180° turn within the confines of
the
| allotted space. You can even learn when an airspace
| violation is better than dying.
|
|
|
| --
| James H. Macklin
| ATP,CFI,A&P
|
|
|
|
|
|
| "Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
|
ups.com...
|| No matter how you present the statistics, GA flying has a
| higher
|| fatality rate than driving. But one has to look at all
the
| factors when
|| evaluating a mode of transportation. Nothing beats
walking
| for safety,
|| plus it is good for your health too. Yet many people take
| the car for
|| even short distances. While GA flying is more convenient,
| faster and
|| flexible compared to driving, and even compared to
airline
| travel, they
|| come at a certain amount of risk. Some people choose to
| accept that
|| risk, and some won't. It is better to be aware of the
| risks in flying
|| rather than pretend they don't exist, or assume they
don't
| apply to
|| you.
||
||
|| RK Henry wrote:
|| On Tue, 31 Oct 2006 00:14:52 +0000 (UTC),
|
|| (Dane Spearing) wrote:
||
|| According to the DOT, the 2005 automobile fatality
| accident rate is:
|| 1.47 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled
|| (see http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/)
||
|| According to the 2005 Nall Report, the general
aviation
| fatality accident rate
|| is: 1.2 fatalities per 100,000 flight hours
|| (see http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/nall.html)
||
|| In order to compare these two statistics, we obviously
| need to assume an
|| average velocity for either automobiles or GA
aircraft.
| If we assume an
|| average GA aircraft velocity of 150 mph, then the
| aviation accident statistic
|| becomes 1.2 fatalities per 15 million miles.
||
|| The 2005 Nall report shows a total 1413 GA accidents,
| fatal and
|| non-fatal, or 6.22 accidents/100,000 flight hours.
| Applying the
|| assumed average cruising speed of 150, the 6.22
| accidents becomes
|| 41.47 accidents per 100 million miles.
||
|| According to NHTSA, there were an estimated 6,159,000
| police-reported
|| motor vehicle accidents in 2005, of which there were
| 43,443
|| fatalities. Dividing the 43,443 by the 2,965 billion
| miles traveled is
|| where they got the figure of 1.47 fatalities per 100
| million miles.
|| Dividing the 6,159,000 accidents by the same 2,965
| billion miles gives
|| an accident rate of 207.72 accidents per 100 million
| miles traveled.
||
|| It appears that if you drive a car, you're 5 times more
| likely to be
|| involved in an accident than if you fly, even in a
| General Aviation
|| aircraft. Since you have to have had some kind of
| accident in order
|| for it to be fatal, this is somewhat encouraging.
||
|| The problem is that airplanes go so much faster. If you
| do have an
|| accident at 150 mph, you're more likely to die as a
| result, whether
|| you're in a car or an airplane, and airplanes are much
| less
|| crashworthy than automobiles. One might speculate what
| the fatality
|| rate for automobiles could be if cars routinely cruised
| at 150 mph,
|| even if such speeds didn't bring with it an even higher
| accident rate.
|| Examining automotive fatality and accident rates in
| places like
|| Germany, where in some parts high speed driving is
| commonplace, might
|| be instructive. Only 0.7% of those automobile accidents
| were fatal
|| while 20% of the aircraft accidents were fatal.
| Airplanes don't crash
|| as often, but when they do, it's bad.
||
|| Perhaps one conclusion is that more attention should be
| paid to making
|| aircraft accidents survivable. Some work has already
| been done in this
|| area, but it looks like there's much room for
| improvement.
||
|| RK Henry
||
|
|