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I do have numbers, thanks to John Roake, and membership
in Germany is actually collapsing faster than anywhere in the world - (32,229 members in 2006 vs 37,624 in 1996, continuous decline). I have no idea why (does anyone else know?). Much of that decline could be explained by demographics. The German population is getting older because of a very low birth rate and many of their well educated youth are leaving for jobs in lower tax rate countries. I Googled German demographics and found this article from 2006. This is a problem throughout Europe. Somewhere around 56% of the specialist doctors in England are from Asia and the Middle East because most of the British trained doctors live and work in the US. 'The exodus of Germans being lured away from home is greater today than at any time since statisticians began collecting figures about population movements in the 1950s. Last year, for the first time since 1968, more people left Germany than arrived, according to Destatis, the federal statistical office. It estimates that 144,815 Germans left the country last year because of high unemployment, better opportunities or, in some cases, tax.'' German demographers were shocked in 1987 when the latest census put the population at 82.4m – 1.3m lower than projected. But a more unpleasant surprise could be in store for Germans as work for the next census gets under way this week. The previous emigration record of 1956 was breached in 1994 and, after several years of decline, the outflow began rising again in 2001, and continued to rise up to 2004, although 2005’s figure of 144,815 was slightly down on the year before. “There has definitely been an increase [in German emigration] over the past two to three years,” said Christina Busch at the Raphael-Werke, an organisation that counsels would-be emigrants. “What worries me is that 99.9 per cent of those I see have qualifications. Many have children. Some even have good jobs. And most want a clean break – they do not intend to come back.” Architects, engineers, lorry drivers, scientists and social workers are leaving in droves, according to figures. The outflow of doctors towards Scandinavia is such that the medical faculty of Erlangen University recently started offering Swedish courses to its students.' 'For former East Germany, the outlook is particularly grim. Another IAB study estimates the region’s population will drop from 15m to 9m by 2050.' |
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