How much longer?

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
news:6LBJj.53005$TT4.41626@attbi_s22...
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid
over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must
gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone
care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Over my ~13 years in aviation, fuel prices have increased by about 100%.
That's about 5.5% a year, against everything else which is inflating at ~3%
a year. Much of the run-up on fuel prices is due to currency fluctuations,
which have added something like a dollar to your cost of avgas. Most of
that currency fluctuation (devaluation of the dollar) is a recent
development. Take that out of the equation, and gas is no more expensive
today (inflation adjusted) than it was 13 years ago.

What does that mean? Unless we get our fiscal policies cleaned up, prices
on imported products (i.e. avgas) will continue to increase faster than
domestic products. Add that to the increasing energy demand in China and
India, which will add to inflationary pressures on fuel, and gasoline ain't
gonna be cheap.

When will it run people out of the air? Dunno, but the losses start at the
margins. How many ratty Cherokees and C-150's do you see buzzing around
these days? Not as many as you used to. IMO, those people may have been the
first victims. Light twins have taken a big hit in value (and flying time),
which is a function of fuel cost. Similarly, I'm starting to see good deals
on aircraft that have historically held their value well, like Commanches.
It takes a lot of gas to run a 250 hp engine.

Cirrus is doing well, as are several new aircraft manufacturers. If a
customer can afford a $350k airplane, s/he can afford the fuel for it. The
RV's are doing OK too. If you have $80-100k to invest over a 4 year build
period, you obviously have significant disposable income and when the
airplane is finished, you spend the bucks on flying rather than building.

To answer your question, though, smaller, cleaner airframes (RV's, LSA's,
etc) will continue to make flying affordable for the weekend flyer if the
weekend flyers' mission is 2 people and 50 pounds of baggage. BUT, it will
become expensive to carry around too much airframe - buzzing two people
around for hamburgers in a draggy airframe with a big engine isn't the wave
of the future...

KB