How much longer?

Over my ~13 years in aviation, fuel prices have increased by about 100%.
That's about 5.5% a year, against everything else which is inflating at
~3% a year. Much of the run-up on fuel prices is due to currency
fluctuations, which have added something like a dollar to your cost of
avgas. Most of that currency fluctuation (devaluation of the dollar) is a
recent development. Take that out of the equation, and gas is no more
expensive today (inflation adjusted) than it was 13 years ago.

Yeah, I know all that -- but in real life you can't take that out of the
equation. Our dollar is in the dumpster, and we're all getting the pinch
because of it.

When will it run people out of the air? Dunno, but the losses start at
the margins. How many ratty Cherokees and C-150's do you see buzzing
around these days? Not as many as you used to. IMO, those people may have
been the first victims.

Yep. The beaters are still on the field, but I don't see them fly anymore.
My A&P says that he's seeing an awful lot of planes coming in for annual
inspections with few -- or even NO -- hours since last year. There are an
awful lot of owners hanging on by their fingernails.

Light twins have taken a big hit in value (and flying time), which is a
function of fuel cost.

I only know one private party still flying a twin, and most of the charters
have switched to turbines. Just a few years ago, they were all over the
airport.

Similarly, I'm starting to see good deals on aircraft that have
historically held their value well, like Commanches. It takes a lot of gas
to run a 250 hp engine.

Yep, our O-540-powered Pathfinder has taken a significant hit in value. Of
course, almost all aircraft have. It's really a buyer's market out there
right now.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"