How much longer?

"F. Baum" wrote ...
My prediction is that we will go to OSH in a few years and see
all manner of advancements in technology.

Frank,
I agree that tech advancements will continue to flood into aviation, but I
also think our GA pilot numbers will continue to shrink steadily.

I am most surprised by the feedback I got to a general question I posted a
few weeks back about club aircraft usage:

* ...25 (flying and named on insur policy) members per airplane
* would have seemed unmanageable 10 or 20 years ago. My club
* meetings turned into tirates when we first considered going from
* 10 to 12 per plane. Now I'm seeing member flying hours per year
* in the single digits, and a club almost needs 20 members per just
* to keep operational hours on the planes above 250 per year.
*
* What are you guys seeing as the recent numbers coming in from
* the clubs?
* a. Recent and past "hours per member per year"?
* b. Recent and past "hours per plane per year"?

I only got back 7 replies, but the trend was identical. Take away the
members actively seeking a rating and the avg was less than 12 hobbs hours
per year per member. Two different guys responded that more than half their
club members paid their dues but did not fly a single hour in 2007. The
other feedback I got was that most new members are coming in after selling
their own planes, or getting out of small partnerships.

Ten years ago the trend I saw was club members getting together and leaving
to buy their own airplane.