Future of Electronics In Aviation

On Jun 21, 6:43*pm, "Peter Dohm" wrote:
"Le Chaud Lapin" wrote in ...
On Jun 21, 4:15 pm, wrote:

Your basic premise is utter nonsense and naive.

Gee-whiz components will just drive the cost of flying up, further
reducing the pilot population.

And don't even bother with you childish blather about "commodities"
as the mass market has to exist BEFORE something can become a
commodity.

Hmm..are you sure?

There are a lot of products that were created on the premise that,
even though there is not yet a market present, the market will exist
by virtue of the product:

* ball-point pen
* sticky-notes from 3M
* Sony Walkman, Discman
* Atari game console
* waverunner
* Kevlar
* Velcro
* microwave oven
* various medicines and lubricants for psychosexual impotence and
frigidity
* gasoline additives
* mosquito repellant
* baby wipes
* polarized sunglasses
* pet rock (came and went)
* USB memory sticks
* DVD player

The creators of these products speculate that the market might want
the product, but the speculation is grounded in reason.

The GA population would first have to increase by about 2 orders of
magnitude before airplanes could become anything near a commodity.

That is true for many commodity products.

It is reasonable to assume that the market for a commodity products
starts off small and increases some time after the product is brought
to market.

The demand for the product is determined by those consumers who
purchase the product.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

Except for the Pet Rock, which putatively had a low developement cost,
everything on your list had a presumed market more than two orders of
magnetude greater than general aviation. *Further, all are physical
products--so that most of the cost is ongoing materials, production, and
packaging--and most are consumable or disposable products which are sold
multiple times to each customer. *No credible comparison can be drawn
between software and any product on your list--it is like comparing oranges
to sawdust!

I was not making a comparison between software and the products that I
listed.

I was merely pointing out that, if a product is made, before anyone
knows what it is, they will still buy it if they like it, which
obviously can only occur after it has been made and made public.

Part of the problem with PAV is not that people do not want it, but no
one has made anything practical yet.

If someone were to make a PAV that satisfied the criteria outlined by
NASA/CAFE/PAV, there would be tremenous consumer response.

-Le Chaud Lapin-