China to buy Eurofighters?

On Wed, 03 Dec 2003 21:35:31 GMT, Scott Ferrin wrote:
On Wed, 3 Dec 2003 18:12:33 +0000, ess (phil
hunt) wrote:
You say that as if you assume hostility is obviously going to
happen. I'd like to see your reasoning for that...

And it seems you assume that it won't.

I don't recall making any such assumption.

Hoping that nothing will ever
happen isn't such a great idea because if it does and you're not
prepared or worse have strengthened a potential advisary,

Many countries are potential adversaries. And trading with them
(whether in arms or other goods) strengthens them. Should Europe
then not trade with large parts of the world?

China isn't currently a military threat angainst Europe: they've no
motive to attack us and in any case would have to fight their way
through several thousand miles of Asian countries to do so.

China might get involved in wars with one or more of its neighbours.
If it did, possession of Eurofighters would help it. How might these
neighbours respond? By beefing up their air forces themselves,
probably. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all rich countries who
could easily afford to spend more on air power. If they did, it's
reasonable to expect that some of the contracts would go Europe's
way (the best counter to a Eurofighter may be another Eurofighter).

you're
begging for trouble. China is bent on becoming a superpower

Indeed they are doing so, with an average 8% yearly economic growth
rate.

and also
has it's eye on expansion and intimidation.

The last time China went to war was 1979, against Vietnam.

I think it's unlikely they will start a war any time soon. Why would
they? Time is on their side (their economy is growing faster than
others), and they know it. Far better, from their point of view, not
to fight until they are stronger. By which time (2020 or so), the
Eurofighter will no longer be the latest thing, leading to automatic
air dominance.

Do you think Taiwan has
500 missiles pointed at it for kicks? At some point China will decide
to give it a go.

Maybe, maybe not.

If China did attack Taiwan, it's likely that even if they did win,
both theirs and the Taiwanese economies would be ruined (consider
the result of a Taiwanese air raid on the Three Gorges dam). So in
winning the war, they'd set back their economic development by
decades, making themselves weaker. This would not the the action of
rational people.

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