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The debate on the merits and technicalities of winch launching will
rage on ad infinitum as it has for years in the winch newsgroups. However, in terms of winch safety the statistics for the UK and Germany are very different. Winch launching on the Continent shows a much lower accident rate than the British experience. In other cases a mishandling of statistics paints an out-of-focus picture. For example an article published in Soaring magazine a while back quoted statistics from a very small sample group to make a point about winch safety. The article was very much off-base and was a poor piece of work based on insufficient data. *The German study, however, does appropriately apply statistical analysis to an appropriate sample size. Glad you brought this up, I also didn't like that article. My main problem was less the sample data size, but rather the timeframe it represented. It lumps all the statistics going back to the 60s into single figures when it should really be separated into at least 2 or 3 different 'eras' for that same timeframe, when various gliding authorities and groups identified common problems and implemented standardized solutions that were game changers. Also, modern winches are orders of magnitude more powerful and more importantly quite controllable. That combined with material advances (UHMW etc) further separate modern winching from it's roots. Modern winching is pretty much a science and has come a long way since the 60s so it does not do the soaring community (US at least...) a favor to combine it all into single raw statistics cause it paints a negative biased picture based on irrelevant data. It would be like combining accident data from the era before seatbelts and airbags with modern car accident statistical data, and then using that to form statistics/articles to help potential future drivers decide how safe cars are. -Paul |
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