Hard Deck

Steve, I don't think that addresses John's issue, and certainly not mine. Once a guy has landed out, he's taken a big points hit. This would reward even lower circling, hoping that you would get away and not be subject to scrutiny and a penalty. If you make the save at 200', you've saved the day and your contest position and are not subject to your proposed penalty. The more prudent pilot that stopped at 800' and landed, did neither and is punished for it.

Here's how the calculus will work in the cockpit: If I circle below 300 ft, I will have a 10% chance of getting away and gaining 400 points; at the same time, I will have a 90% chance of losing 200 points. I'm pretty sure that 200 points is plenty enough to make that an easy choice -- that would make for a net expectation of -140 points. Clearly, it could be an even easier choice if the penalty were made larger. I don't think it needs to be larger.

And, normally a landout costs less than 400 points compared to a finisher -- that number, of course, is variable but representative. My 10% number is variable too, but I think it would also be representative of what anyone might reasonably be expecting from a try at 300 ft. Right?