Gliding risk....

On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 2:43:02 PM UTC-7, Ramy wrote:
Stefan you would think, but the stats show complete opposite. The majority of casualties are high time experienced pilots, including commercial and instructors. At the same time there are more students and inexperience pilots flying than high experience.

Comparing all of gliding to just recreational/commuting motorcycling seems wrong.

Racing is more dangerous than other forms in both activities. Motorcycle racing is just insanely dangerous. Multiple people who go to the same motorcycle shop as me in Wellington NZ have died in the annual Isle of Man races *alone*. On the other hand my gliding club with 50 to 80 members hasn't had a fatal accident since I joined it in 1985. We've lost several tow pilots doing things other than towing: for example one flying passengers commercially in the Pacific Islands, and one crop dusting in Africa.

On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 7:04:46 PM UTC-4, Bruce Hoult wrote:
On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 2:43:02 PM UTC-7, Ramy wrote:
Stefan you would think, but the stats show complete opposite. The majority of casualties are high time experienced pilots, including commercial and instructors. At the same time there are more students and inexperience pilots flying than high experience.

Comparing all of gliding to just recreational/commuting motorcycling seems wrong.

Racing is more dangerous than other forms in both activities. Motorcycle racing is just insanely dangerous. Multiple people who go to the same motorcycle shop as me in Wellington NZ have died in the annual Isle of Man races *alone*. On the other hand my gliding club with 50 to 80 members hasn't had a fatal accident since I joined it in 1985. We've lost several tow pilots doing things other than towing: for example one flying passengers commercially in the Pacific Islands, and one crop dusting in Africa.

The Isle of Mann TT is an outlier even among motorcycle racing.

On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 4:20:55 PM UTC-7, wrote:

The Isle of Mann TT is an outlier even among motorcycle racing.

Beat me to it. In my experience, racing at a well-equipped track like Sonoma (nee Sears Point) is safer than riding on the street. Everyone is going the same direction, no car is going to try to make a U-turn right in front of you, and all of the obstructions are padded. In the four years I raced at Sears Point, we only had one fatality.

What Ramy says is true, in the US at least. A look at NTSB accident reports shows that experienced pilots (including commercial pilots, frequent contest participants, and the like) make up a large or even the largest share of fatalities. Fatal accidents involving very low-time pilots are quite rare..

My own interpretation of this is that complacency can be a much bigger safety problem than lack of skill.

I have more than 4000 hours flown over 48 years. I think I am smack in the middle of the most dangerous demographic.

Lynn Alley
"2KA"

Here's my research. I drive alot more than I fly. I don't know 5286 glider pilots.

In 2016, 5,286 people died in motorcycle crashes, up 5.1 percent from 5,029 in 2015, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Motorcycle fatalities have increased for the second year in a row and are at the highest level since 2008, when 5,312 people died in motorcycle crashes.
Source google

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

The numbers sound plausible to me. If I take them at face value, I need to personalize them to make any assessment of risk. What I care about is what are the chances of me dying in the next year of doing these things.

For driving, I drive about 10,000 miles/yr. Assuming an average speed of 40mph, that's 250 hrs/yr. So my risk of dying next year behind the wheel is 0.01%

For soaring I fly about 40 hrs/yr. That means my chance of dying behind the stick next year is 0.08%

For down hill mountain biking, I ride maybe 400 miles/yr @ 15mph. That's 27 hrs/yr and makes my chances of dying behind the handle bars 0.08%

Now, for risky activities I try to mitigate the risks as best I can. I will assume I have average skill at all the above activities, but I can still reduce risk through technology. I drive a larger SUV, with lots of air bags, a crumple zone, and I wear a seatbelt. I fly a glider with a safety cockpit, FLARM, ADS-b out, a Spot, an AH, and automatic hook-ups. I ride a bike with a helmet and gloves.

My conclusion is: I need to spend way more time weighing the dangers of mountain biking!!!

Matt

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

There are many ways of looking at this, risk per hour is one. Another might be risk per year of participation. By the information in the post, my risk of dying in a glider is 2% in the next 1000 hours of participation. If I fly 100 hours in a year which might be a typical average, my chance of dying next year in a glider is 0.2%. The raw death rate in the US for my age group (55-64, also typical of glider pilots) is about 1500/100000 or 1.5% according to the latest CDC data. In other words, I am about 8 times as likely to die of something else, than in a glider.

You are also somewhat in control of that 0.2%. The majority of accidents in gliders are preventable, merely by allowing for more margin of error which will decrease your enjoyment of the sport but little. Nevertheless, sometimes pilots are "swatted out of the sky by the hand of fate", as two of my very good friends were two years ago.

So your chance of dying in a glider is only 0.2% (or 0.02, or 0.002%).Â*
That doesn't mean that it won't happen on the very next flight.Â* It does
not mean that you can make 5,000 more flights and then stop just before
you kill yourself.Â* Statistics...Â* Fly! Enjoy!

On 10/31/2019 10:10 AM, jfitch wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/
There are many ways of looking at this, risk per hour is one. Another might be risk per year of participation. By the information in the post, my risk of dying in a glider is 2% in the next 1000 hours of participation. If I fly 100 hours in a year which might be a typical average, my chance of dying next year in a glider is 0.2%. The raw death rate in the US for my age group (55-64, also typical of glider pilots) is about 1500/100000 or 1.5% according to the latest CDC data. In other words, I am about 8 times as likely to die of something else, than in a glider.

You are also somewhat in control of that 0.2%. The majority of accidents in gliders are preventable, merely by allowing for more margin of error which will decrease your enjoyment of the sport but little. Nevertheless, sometimes pilots are "swatted out of the sky by the hand of fate", as two of my very good friends were two years ago.

--
Dan, 5J

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

A GREAT Read on this subject is "Fate is the Hunter". Ernest Gann.

On Thu, 31 Oct 2019 09:39:40 -0700, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7,
wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

A GREAT Read on this subject is "Fate is the Hunter". Ernest Gann.

+1


--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org