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"Gary Drescher" wrote in message
news ![]() personal flying accounts for 48.1% of GA hours, but 70.8% of GA flying. Oops, that should say "but 70.8% of GA fatal accidents". |
#2
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![]() "Gary Drescher" wrote in message news ![]() | According to p. 1 of the Nall Report, there are 1.22 fatal accidents per | 100,000 GA hours. That's one every 82,000 hours. According to p. 5, | personal flying accounts for 48.1% of GA hours, but 70.8% of GA flying. | That comes to one fatal accident per 56,000 hours of personal flying. | That's every 560 years at 100 hours per year, or every 28 years among 20 | pilots who fly 100 hours per year each. So as I said, it's roughly 1 in 20 | within 25 years. | Twenty years ago personal flying was roughly twice as dangerous as it is now. Seems a lot of the stupid ones killed themselves. Makes you wonder if we are going to get a an upsurge in accidents now that so many people are learning to fly again. Nall is not the only source on aviation safety. Other reports have broken the accident rate down by type of aircraft. The Cessna 152 and 172 have much lower accident rates than average, for example. Some models approach the safety record of airliners, but they tend to be flown only by professional pilots. |
#3
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Wow, I asked a short question and this thread has blown into dozens
of postings. I'm glad I'm not the only who was interested in talking about this. Also I would like to thank everyone for your thoughts. I guess most of my friends will never go flying but that is their choice. Gary wrote: According to p. 1 of the Nall Report, there are 1.22 fatal accidents per 100,000 GA hours. That's one every 82,000 hours. According to p. 5, personal flying accounts for 48.1% of GA hours, but 70.8% of GA flying. That comes to one fatal accident per 56,000 hours of personal flying. That's every 560 years at 100 hours per year, or every 28 years among 20 pilots who fly 100 hours per year each. So as I said, it's roughly 1 in 20 within 25 years. Is it me or do others find all these stats just completely useless after a while since it appears that if you add all the percentages up it comes out to 14,284% (Gary I'm not pointing this next comment you *at all*) I'm starting to believe the old saying, "Statistics don't lie. The people who use statistics lie." Gary's example is pretty clear cut but most of these reports are quite comfusing. (NOTE: I took 9 semesters of math above Calculus I so my math is not exactly lacking) Gerald |
#4
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Wow, I asked a short question and this thread has blown into dozens
of postings. I'm glad I'm not the only who was interested in talking about this. Also I would like to thank everyone for your thoughts. I guess most of my friends will never go flying but that is their choice. Gary wrote: According to p. 1 of the Nall Report, there are 1.22 fatal accidents per 100,000 GA hours. That's one every 82,000 hours. According to p. 5, personal flying accounts for 48.1% of GA hours, but 70.8% of GA flying. That comes to one fatal accident per 56,000 hours of personal flying. That's every 560 years at 100 hours per year, or every 28 years among 20 pilots who fly 100 hours per year each. So as I said, it's roughly 1 in 20 within 25 years. Is it me or do others find all these stats just completely useless after a while since it appears that if you add all the percentages up it comes out to 14,284% (Gary I'm not pointing this next comment you *at all*) I'm starting to believe the old saying, "Statistics don't lie. The people who use statistics lie." Gary's example is pretty clear cut but most of these reports are quite comfusing. (NOTE: I took 9 semesters of math above Calculus I so my math is not exactly lacking) Gerald |
#5
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![]() The general rule of insurance is that you insure against the unlikely event that would ruin you, not against the ordinary calamity that might be expected to come along once in a lifetime. Thus it is probably silly for me to carry hull insurance on a Piper Cub. I really don't know why I do it, except that I don't know how I'd explain to my wife if I had to scrape up $25,000 if I trashed the poor thing. But the million-dollar liability policy--that's what's important. I often regret that I can plump it up even higher. Similarly, I have thousand-dollar deductibles on my cars and house, and would go to five thousand if it were offered. all the best -- Dan Ford email: see the Warbird's Forum at www.warbirdforum.com and the Piper Cub Forum at www.pipercubforum.com |
#6
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All this talk about stats ( and the stats them selves don't amount to a
hill of beans) I drove 5k to 6k miles a month that's 60k to 72k a year. At the average for most people of 15k a year that made me 480% more likely to be in an serious accident. Number of accidents I was involved in "0". Keep your head, know your limits and that of the aircraft and respect the weather and your can reduce your risk. What I do when they finally agree to come flying is I make sure they know why we preflight and what to expect even when only taxiing. Most important gentle turns and maneuvers. Remember these are people who are used to seeing the bulk head separating them from first class, and not all the visual input from a light plane. You might also arrange with your FBO to taxi an airplane to the fuel pump and have one of your friends come along , sort of an introduction to a GA aircraft. worked for me in the past. |
#7
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"kilomii" wrote in message
m... All this talk about stats ( and the stats them selves don't amount to a hill of beans) Not true. Carefully interpreted, statistics tell us a great deal about the world. I drove 5k to 6k miles a month that's 60k to 72k a year. At the average for most people of 15k a year that made me 480% more likely to be in an serious accident. Number of accidents I was involved in "0". I'm not sure what conclusion you're trying to draw from this example. Statistically speaking, the number of serious car accidents you'd most likely be involved in--even at 5 times the average risk--is still closer to zero than to one, so the statistical prediction was borne out in this case. Keep your head, know your limits and that of the aircraft and respect the weather and your can reduce your risk. Yes, if you do those things, you reduce your risk below what it would be if you didn't do those things. But you don't necessarily thereby reduce your risk below the average risk among GA pilots. --Gary |
#8
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![]() "C J Campbell" wrote in message ... It would be interesting to know whether accidents cluster around those who don't fly very often (less than 50 hours per year) or those who fly a lot or even professionally. I notice many fatal accidents in the NTSB database note that the pilot was not current...perhaps more than half (sorry...I've not run empirical analysis). OTOH, there seems to be a lot of pilots with thousands of hours. Overconfidence of experience? |
#9
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Gerald,
Congratulations on passing your flight test and getting your certificate. You'll find that a huge percentage of people think little airplanes are death traps for many reasons. While general aviation's lousy accident record certainly contributes to it, some folks are frightened of heights, some of surrendering control to someone else in a situation where they cannot do anything about what is going on and some don't trust the pilot. How are you perceived by those people? What kind of driver are you? Are you known for speeding, weaving in and out of traffic, hard acceleration, heavy braking and no regard for your passengers? If so, very few people will get in an airplane with you. If you are known as one who avoids risks then you may find it easier to get your friends to fly with you. There are some good articles on how to give a first ride to people. By and large the rules are keep it short, do it early in the morning or in the evening when the air is smooth, describe what you are doing and keep it smooth with shallow banks and very conservative maneuvering...no stalls or steep turns. A passenger you scare may be the voter who casts the deciding vote to close your airport. Take barf bags, put them in reach and mention factually, and briefly, that if they feel uncomfortable to use the bag. If a passenger expresses a feeling of discomfort, terminate the flight. Interestingly enough, those who have done the research have found that if the flight is ended prior to the passenger throwing up, his or her tolerance will increase and the passenger will do better on the next flight. If the passenger actually throws up, the tolerance decreases and it happens faster on the next flight. You'll also find that your circle of friends will change as you tend to associate with those who like the idea of flying. All the best, Rick Gerald Sylvester wrote in message link.net... I recently got my PPL and find that most people are scared sh*tless to go up. One friend came along and was just blown away and had a ton of fun. Just about everyone else is "oh my god, I am so scared of airplanes." This weekend I was going to go with my CFI to celebrate my passing my checkride in a brand new SR-20 and people are still shaking in their boots scared to hell and simply will not go. Is this me or is it just the general public? Any ideas? I hope this doesn't sound stupid but just my impression the since passing my checkride. Gerald |
#10
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base on my personal experience:
Do it short. Max 30 minutes of flight. Never, never, never exceed 15 degrees of bank Paul "Rick Durden" a écrit dans le message de m... Gerald, Congratulations on passing your flight test and getting your certificate. You'll find that a huge percentage of people think little airplanes are death traps for many reasons. While general aviation's lousy accident record certainly contributes to it, some folks are frightened of heights, some of surrendering control to someone else in a situation where they cannot do anything about what is going on and some don't trust the pilot. How are you perceived by those people? What kind of driver are you? Are you known for speeding, weaving in and out of traffic, hard acceleration, heavy braking and no regard for your passengers? If so, very few people will get in an airplane with you. If you are known as one who avoids risks then you may find it easier to get your friends to fly with you. There are some good articles on how to give a first ride to people. By and large the rules are keep it short, do it early in the morning or in the evening when the air is smooth, describe what you are doing and keep it smooth with shallow banks and very conservative maneuvering...no stalls or steep turns. A passenger you scare may be the voter who casts the deciding vote to close your airport. Take barf bags, put them in reach and mention factually, and briefly, that if they feel uncomfortable to use the bag. If a passenger expresses a feeling of discomfort, terminate the flight. Interestingly enough, those who have done the research have found that if the flight is ended prior to the passenger throwing up, his or her tolerance will increase and the passenger will do better on the next flight. If the passenger actually throws up, the tolerance decreases and it happens faster on the next flight. You'll also find that your circle of friends will change as you tend to associate with those who like the idea of flying. All the best, Rick Gerald Sylvester wrote in message link.net... I recently got my PPL and find that most people are scared sh*tless to go up. One friend came along and was just blown away and had a ton of fun. Just about everyone else is "oh my god, I am so scared of airplanes." This weekend I was going to go with my CFI to celebrate my passing my checkride in a brand new SR-20 and people are still shaking in their boots scared to hell and simply will not go. Is this me or is it just the general public? Any ideas? I hope this doesn't sound stupid but just my impression the since passing my checkride. Gerald |
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