plane down near seattle

Cockpit,

Somehow I think the reason many people take so many risks in aviation isn't
so much to do with a deep mathematical analysis of the situation


I'd still be interested in how you prepare for the risks of driving a car
(Nomex, too?) or repairing stuff in the house.

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

"Cockpit Colin" wrote in message
...
Wrong. If the chance is 1 in a million each time you fly the chance is
1:1,000,000 on the first flight and 1:1,000,000 on the millionith flight.

The dice don't have a memory. You are simply taking the 1:1,000,000
chance
more often than your passengers.

I agree with what you're saying - but if I take that risk 'n' times more
than you then I'm 'n' times more likely to have my number come up.

If I had a gun with a million hole chamber and only 1 round I wouldn't be
too nervous about spinning the chamber once - I'd be real nervous about
doing it a million times. The chances of blowing my brains out on any one
occasion is always 1 in a million as you say - but do it enough times and
the chance of that one chance coming up is increased proportionately -
which
proportionately affects my chances of continuing on in this life in good
health!



This logic is exactly what pays for all those nice big casinos in Vegas ans
is why they give you free drinks even when you are playing $0.05 slots.

"Gig Giacona" wrote in message
...

"Cockpit Colin" wrote in message
...
Wrong. If the chance is 1 in a million each time you fly the chance is
1:1,000,000 on the first flight and 1:1,000,000 on the millionith
flight.

The dice don't have a memory. You are simply taking the 1:1,000,000
chance
more often than your passengers.

I agree with what you're saying - but if I take that risk 'n' times more
than you then I'm 'n' times more likely to have my number come up.

If I had a gun with a million hole chamber and only 1 round I wouldn't
be
too nervous about spinning the chamber once - I'd be real nervous about
doing it a million times. The chances of blowing my brains out on any
one
occasion is always 1 in a million as you say - but do it enough times
and
the chance of that one chance coming up is increased proportionately -
which
proportionately affects my chances of continuing on in this life in good
health!



This logic is exactly what pays for all those nice big casinos in Vegas
ans
is why they give you free drinks even when you are playing $0.05 slots.

No. Not at all. The house always wins because the odds are in their favour -
remembering that it costs you to participate. Having invested in a lot of
safety equipment it costs me nothing to use it.