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"Newps" wrote in message
...
So which is it? Is the poll a fact or nearly a fact?

I've already said. Please keep up. The poll is a fact. They are 100%
correct about the fact they represent. They are reasonably (and more
importantly, usefully) close to 100% correct about the facts that they ask
about.

If you're having trouble distinguishing between the two, I recommend you
find a decent statistics book.

Peter Duniho wrote:

"Newps" wrote in message
...

So which is it? Is the poll a fact or nearly a fact?


I've already said. Please keep up. The poll is a fact. They are 100%
correct about the fact they represent. They are reasonably (and more
importantly, usefully) close to 100% correct about the facts that they ask
about.

Exactly what is "useful" about exit polls taken on election day?
Exactly what is useful about other political polls for that matter,
unless you are a democratic who can't think on his/her own and needs a
poll to tell them what to do. :-)


Matt

"Matt Whiting" wrote in message
Exactly what is "useful" about exit polls taken on election day? Exactly
what is useful about other political polls for that matter, unless you are
a democratic who can't think on his/her own and needs a poll to tell them
what to do. :-)


Matt


Democrats and Republicans will both heavily use the exit polls. In a couple
of months, a book about the size of a dictionary will come out with all the
exit poll data. Both sides will use the info to figure out why people voted
the way they did, and how they can use it to their advantage in the future.
Exit polls are very accurate when used properly.

Matt Whiting writes:
Exactly what is "useful" about exit polls taken on election day?

One use of exit polls is to check the accuracy of the election. As a
pilot, you probably appreciate the value of redundant systems. The
exit poll data can give you an indication of a problem in the
electoral polling process.

If the election result and the polling data radically disagree, it is
probably worthwhile to look closely at both the election and the exit
poll to figure out the source of error...

Chris
--
Chris Colohan Email: PGP: finger
Web: www.colohan.com Phone: (412)268-4751

Christopher Brian Colohan wrote:
Matt Whiting writes:

Exactly what is "useful" about exit polls taken on election day?


One use of exit polls is to check the accuracy of the election. As a
pilot, you probably appreciate the value of redundant systems. The
exit poll data can give you an indication of a problem in the
electoral polling process.

If the election result and the polling data radically disagree, it is
probably worthwhile to look closely at both the election and the exit
poll to figure out the source of error...

Chris


I disagree with this. Exit polls are not taken by every person that
votes. I don't participate in them for instance. They only exist so
that the media has something to report throughout the day instead of
just reminding everyone when the polls close and watching the clock in
anticipation. I for one believe the media should keeps its mouth shut
and not even talk about the election other than reminding everyone it is
election day until states are finalized.

Christopher Brian Colohan wrote:

Matt Whiting writes:

Exactly what is "useful" about exit polls taken on election day?


One use of exit polls is to check the accuracy of the election. As a
pilot, you probably appreciate the value of redundant systems. The
exit poll data can give you an indication of a problem in the
electoral polling process.

If the election result and the polling data radically disagree, it is
probably worthwhile to look closely at both the election and the exit
poll to figure out the source of error...

I absolutely believe in redundant systems, but only if each system is
itself reliable. Exit polls simply aren't reliable enough for me to
consider them a redundant system.


Matt

Peter Duniho wrote:
"Newps" wrote in message
...

So which is it? Is the poll a fact or nearly a fact?


I've already said. Please keep up. The poll is a fact.

The poll is not a fact. It is potentially a close approximation of a fact.


They are 100%
correct about the fact they represent.

They are almost never correct about the fact they are trying to represent.