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#1
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Supply and demand.
Low supply, low demand, high cost. Michelle Jay Honeck wrote: Here's a mystery that I just cannot answer: To fly to Las Vegas from Chicago costs $99.00. (For example.) To fly to Cedar Rapids from Chicago costs $300. Naturally, at that price practically no one flies on that plane into Cedar Rapids. Question: WHY do the airlines that fly into Cedar Rapids insist on flying back and forth with mostly empty planes? Would it not make sense, say, 30 minutes before departure, to drop the price until the plane was full? This is basic "Econ 101" -- if empty, lower the price until demand matches supply. Their actions seem to defy logic. In the lodging industry, you're going to find rooms are discounted much more aggressively after 10 PM than they are at 3 PM, simply because no innkeeper wants to sit empty, and the odds of being able to charge full-rate at that time of day are slim. Yet no airline seems to do it this way, at least on the short hops. If it were MY airline, I'd sure as hell rather make a hundred bucks than nothing! There must be something else in play here -- anyone know? -- Michelle P ATP-ASEL, CP-AMEL, and AMT-A&P "Elisabeth" a Maule M-7-235B (no two are alike) Volunteer Pilot, Angel Flight Mid-Atlantic Volunteer Builder, Habitat for Humanity |
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Jay: Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I recall from my tourism industry
days-Hotel people work on Average Daily Rate. Some people walk in the door and pay your Rack Rate, some pay Corporate Rate, some have a AAA card discount, some have Government Rate. And it all averages out to your Average Daily Rate. In the Airline biz they have Revenue Per Seat Mile. Some pay First Class, some are coach, a few got a package, some purchased through a consolidator, and some bought the ticket on Priceline. The bean counters in Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and Atlanta crunch the numbers and voila! - - - Al Gilson Skyhawk N3082U KSFF Spokane, WA In article fIspd.85397$V41.82999@attbi_s52, "Jay Honeck" wrote: Here's a mystery that I just cannot answer: To fly to Las Vegas from Chicago costs $99.00. (For example.) To fly to Cedar Rapids from Chicago costs $300. Naturally, at that price practically no one flies on that plane into Cedar Rapids. Question: WHY do the airlines that fly into Cedar Rapids insist on flying back and forth with mostly empty planes? Would it not make sense, say, 30 minutes before departure, to drop the price until the plane was full? This is basic "Econ 101" -- if empty, lower the price until demand matches supply. Their actions seem to defy logic. In the lodging industry, you're going to find rooms are discounted much more aggressively after 10 PM than they are at 3 PM, simply because no innkeeper wants to sit empty, and the odds of being able to charge full-rate at that time of day are slim. Yet no airline seems to do it this way, at least on the short hops. If it were MY airline, I'd sure as hell rather make a hundred bucks than nothing! There must be something else in play here -- anyone know? -- Al Gilson Spokane, WA USA 1970 VW Convertible 1964 Cessna Skyhawk |
#3
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In the Airline biz they have Revenue Per Seat Mile.
Some pay First Class, some are coach, a few got a package, some purchased through a consolidator, and some bought the ticket on Priceline. The bean counters in Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and Atlanta crunch the numbers and voila! Right, but -- correct me if I'm wrong -- aren't the airlines pretty much universally losing money? Sounds like their method is flawed, to me. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#4
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![]() "Jay Honeck" wrote in message oups.com... In the Airline biz they have Revenue Per Seat Mile. Right, but -- correct me if I'm wrong -- aren't the airlines pretty much universally losing money? Sounds like their method is flawed, to me. There's a couple layers of issues here. First, the strategy of "yield management" is designed to try and maximize the revenue per seat-mile. In and of itself this makes perfect sense. The apparent oddities this leads to, like the Saturday-night stay rule, all make perfect sense towards making each person pay as much as possible for their seat. This, too, is logical: a vacationer heading to Miami does not value a seat nearly as much as a businessman headed to an important meeting. This benefits the vacationer because it allows for the availability of very cheap seats, and benefits the businessman because it increases the odds he will be able to get a seat at the last minute that he desperately needs. Second is the issue of cost structure. No matter how you look at it, running an airline is a hellish business. It's as capital-intensive as real estate, only your main assets are always depreciating. Operating costs are astounding, and not easily adjusted. Pilots, mechanics, FAs, gate leases, etc. all add up very quickly, and it takes years to adjust the formula. So newcomers will always have the advantage because they built their business models around last year's conditions, and not the last decade's. But come ten years from now those newcomers could be in just as bad shape. Third, you have the destabilizing role of the low-cost carriers. The critical thing that these guys have done is to throw out the yield maximization strategy in favor of a simplified flat pricing model. And because their built-in costs are much lower, they can undercut the majors' prices at every step of the game. The only way for the majors to compete is to reduce costs, and as we already explained, this takes years to accomplish, years during which incredible sums of money fly out the door. Their management has been at turns arrogant, ignorant, and incompetent, but then this can be said of nearly every established company in every industry at one time or another. Today's darlings will get their turn at the rack sooner or later. The problem that we have is that traditionally the low-cost carriers lived by cherry-picking routes and thus could not be looked to to provide a truly national network. This is a "must-have" in the same sense that the Interstate highway system is a fundamental component of our economy and way of life. Interestingly for us, the future is in some ways headed in our direction. Regional jets are replacing not only the Saab 340s and Dash 8s, but MD-80s and DC-9s as well. Many of the new airlines have all-RJ fleets from the ground up. I suspect the smaller-is-better trend will continue as far as technology and passenger comfort allows, with on-demand taxi services using VLJs possibly displacing Part 121 carriers flying into less-dense areas. Who knows. -cwk. |
#5
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![]() Colin W Kingsbury wrote: Second is the issue of cost structure. No matter how you look at it, running an airline is a hellish business. It's as capital-intensive as real estate, only your main assets are always depreciating. Operating costs are astounding, and not easily adjusted. Pilots, mechanics, FAs, gate leases, etc. all add up very quickly, and it takes years to adjust the formula. So newcomers will always have the advantage because they built their business models around last year's conditions, and not the last decade's. But come ten years from now those newcomers could be in just as bad shape. Look at Southwest. They are doing it right. All the people really want is a seat at the cheapest possible rate. We don't need your fancy clubs and we certainly don't care about boarding the plane 5 minutes before everybody else. Just get to my destination when you say you will and be friendly about it. Interestingly for us, the future is in some ways headed in our direction. Regional jets are replacing not only the Saab 340s and Dash 8s, but MD-80s and DC-9s as well. Many of the new airlines have all-RJ fleets from the ground up. That's because an airline pilot just isn't worth $175K per year. Period. Get a jumpseat ride in an RJ and you'll see a 7 year can fly one. When the computer voice says 10 feet pull the power and the nose up and you land. There's nothing to do anymore. Which is good, that's what makes it safe. |
#6
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![]() "Newps" wrote in message ... Look at Southwest. They are doing it right. I agree, but the problem is that Southwest cannot serve the whole country and sustain its business model. They exist by operating direct service on a very narrow range of routes. This is why you do not see SWA flying in and out of BOS, LGA, or any number of other extremely high-volume airports. All the people really want is a seat at the cheapest possible rate. We don't need your fancy clubs and we certainly don't care about boarding the plane 5 minutes before everybody else. Well, I used to fly upwards of 100,000 miles a year, rarely going two weeks without at least one trip. When you do that you get to spend a lot of time waiting for missed connections and weather delays, and the clubs really do help. It's one thing to put up with the cattle call a few times a year but every week? You'd go mad. Likewise, the early boarding offers one key benefit: guaranteed overhead luggage bin space. This meant (a) I could save time by carrying all my luggage and (b) still be comfortable by not having to put a bag under the seat. Like I said, when you do it constantly, it really adds up. With times being tough the past few years, companies were free to force their traveling employees to eat a lot of s--t and fly only the cheapest available fares. As conditions improve this will change. Good employees will demand better accomodations or they will quit. This is why I think Airtran has been very smart to offer Business Class seating at reasonable prices. I used to run a team of consultants and was always willing to spend a little more to make the trip easier on them. As for the client, I would explain that they were paying $1800 a day for the consultant's time, so they ought to be willing to spend a few hundred more to make sure that nice fellow showed up refreshed and ready to work, not chewed up and spit out. IMHO we need to weed the 6 majors (UA, US, AA, DL, NW, CO) down to three or four, probably by allowing some of the mergers that would have been unthinkable previously. UA, US, and DL are all sick men and I expect them to look nothing like they do today within a few years. I do not expect US to survive at all and do not understand how UA has managed to avoid going back into bankruptcy. -cwk. |
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