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![]() Dan Luke wrote: I guess it would be nice if prime ribeye steaks were a dollar a pound, too, until all the beef businesses collapsed. Then we could buy those mad cows from Alberta. |
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If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft. They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new car than a small plane. I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k or close to it. The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would cost. I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me they are building it for around 1500. Just my 2 cents. "Dan Luke" wrote in message ... "aluckyguess" wrote: It would be nice if Piper sold its Cherokee 180 for around 50k Nice for whom? Certainly not for the insane New Piper executive who approved such an idea. That would be a lot less than NP's direct cost to build the airplanes (if they did still build the 180, that is), never mind any overhead and profit. I guess it would be nice if prime ribeye steaks were a dollar a pound, too, until all the beef businesses collapsed. -- Dan C-172RG at BFM |
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![]() "aluckyguess" wrote in message ... snip The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would cost. I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me they are building it for around 1500. Actually if Lycoming had an order for 12000 IO360 engines from one customer the price would probably go up and the quality would go down. Lycoming sold all of their machinery and has all of their parts made outside by subcontractors. Each subcontractor has a significant "learning curve" coming up to speed. ( See the court case that Lycoming lost recently about crankshaft specifications and manufacturing procedures ) They would be unable to get enough parts at any price to assemble them in a reasonable time. ( NOTE: this is an opinion based on my knowledge of the aircraft engine business. ) Highflyer Highflight Aviation Services Pinckneyville Airport ( PJY ) |
#4
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![]() "aluckyguess" wrote: If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft. They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new car than a small plane. You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg. And remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models. I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k or close to it. And if frogs had wings... Therein lies the main weakness in your argument. You imagine there is a vast pool of pent-up demand. Do you believe there are buyers for 1,000 Cherokee 180s/month? How about after the first, second years? Remember, over the 40 year production history of all models of the Cessna 172/175, only 43,000 have been built. That's a long way from 1,000/mo. [snip] I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. Maybe not, because they would still build them the same way at first. Mobilization costs to handle the increased volume would have to be added to the margin made on each engine. The same thing goes for New Piper: if they suddenly had a backlog of 12,000 airplanes, they'd have to build new factories and so would all their suppliers. It would take years to reach the capacity to meet that demand efficiently. And here's the rub: by the time they had all this capacity was built, practically everyone who wanted a new 180 would have one, and there wouldn't be enough new customers to pay off the enormous debt NP (and its suppliers) would have after they built all those factories. You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me they are building it for around 1500. Why does it tell you that? And what do you reckon the liability cost component of an LS6 is compared to a Lyc. O-360? -- Dan C-172RG at BFM |
#5
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![]() aluckyguess wrote: If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft. They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new car than a small plane. If the moon were made of green cheese, astronauts wouldn't need Cheez Whiz. Simply put, there is not a market for the amount of new planes you envision. New cars models are sold in the hundreds of thousands per year. At that volume, manufacturers can afford to buy robots to automate most of the work. Common parts can be interchanged and bought very cheaply in large quantities. At GA volumes, planes still have to be built by hand, much the way they've always been built. That's where the cost of a plane skyrockets. I've visited the new Cessna plant. It looks more like a huge hanger with hundreds of homebuilders than an actual factory. As far as there being more work involved building a new car than a plane, all I can say is that you've obviously never built a plane before. I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k or close to it. The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would cost. I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. Even at 1000 a month, you still can't come close to the economies of scale that are common to the auto industry. Therefore, you shouldn't realistically expect the price to come close either. John Galban=====N4BQ (PA28-180) |
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On Mon, 18 Apr 2005 08:03:01 -0700, "aluckyguess" wrote:
"Larry Dighera" wrote in message .. . On Mon, 18 Apr 2005 00:05:19 GMT, Jimbob wrote in :: It will never have the speed of a Glassair. I just don't think that is possible. I thought at one time everyone should fly then I realized it is already crowded up there and it would suck. It would be nice if Piper sold its Cherokee 180 for around 50k then most everyday pilots could have a new plane. This would be economical carry an average 2 person family and still get you their in a decent time. Who needs Piper. The new Light Sport's have reasonable performance and are selling for about 70K. Less range and slightly less speed but the price is right. Jim http://www.unconventional-wisdom.org |
#7
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![]() "Jimbob" wrote in message ... snip Who needs Piper. The new Light Sport's have reasonable performance and are selling for about 70K. Less range and slightly less speed but the price is right. Jim http://www.unconventional-wisdom.org To some extent, Piper sells transportation. Light Sport aircraft will never be in the same transportation as aircraft that have 2x the mass (good in turbulence and helps with stability), higher speed, IFR ability, etc. Performance and capability wise, LSA's are the equivalent of the C-152 without the ability to be upgraded to IFR... If you're looking for a 100, maybe 120 mph airplane that carries 2 people, you can get a nice Ercoupe or C-150 for under $20k... KB |
#8
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On Mon, 18 Apr 2005 20:21:17 -0400, "Kyle Boatright"
wrote: To some extent, Piper sells transportation. Light Sport aircraft will never be in the same transportation as aircraft that have 2x the mass (good in turbulence and helps with stability), higher speed, IFR ability, etc. Performance and capability wise, LSA's are the equivalent of the C-152 without the ability to be upgraded to IFR... If you're looking for a 100, maybe 120 mph airplane that carries 2 people, you can get a nice Ercoupe or C-150 for under $20k... KB To the best of my knowledge, there is nothing prevent an LSA from becoming IFR certified. The pilot must have a private rating to take advantage of this. However, if that pilot was operating under the sportpilot rule, they can't fly IFR. The weight issue is a valid argument. On the plus side, you are looking at a new aircraft vs. 30yo. I don't expect LSA to replace mooneys or lancairs, but I can see a segment of the population that could consider it for the transportation roles that c-152 performance class aircraft are used for. Jim http://www.unconventional-wisdom.org |
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On Mon, 18 Apr 2005 08:03:01 -0700, "aluckyguess" wrote in
:: It will never have the speed of a Glassair. For the CarterCopter to achieve the speed of a Glassair, would require considerable power I believe. There's also the stability issue of the rotor disk in the relative wind at high speed to address. It would take a cleaver fellow in deed to successfully meet Carter's goals. But I wouldn't characterize them as impossible. |
#10
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On Tue, 19 Apr 2005 01:16:01 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :: On Mon, 18 Apr 2005 08:03:01 -0700, "aluckyguess" wrote in :: It will never have the speed of a Glassair. For the CarterCopter to achieve the speed of a Glassair, would require considerable power I believe. There's also the stability issue of the rotor disk in the relative wind at high speed to address. It would take a cleaver fellow in deed to successfully meet Carter's goals. But I wouldn't characterize them as impossible. Here's some more information about the subject TV broadcast: ------------------------------------------------------------------- AVflash Volume 11, Number 16b -- April 21, 2005 ------------------------------------------------------------------- YOUR NEXT CAR COULD BE AN AIRCRAFT... Flying cars are back in the news this week, thanks to Nevada inventor Woody Norris, who is working on an ultralight helicopter called the AirScooter. Norris has won a prestigious inventors' award -- for his work in acoustics, not aviation -- and he and his flying machine were featured in Sunday night's "60 Minutes" show on CBS. Norris has developed a new four-stroke engine for his AirScooter, which has two counter-rotating rotors, and he says it is stable and easy to control. A video clip at his Web site shows the single-seat AirScooter taking off vertically, maneuvering just a few feet above the ground and returning to its launch site. An unmanned version is also in the works. Norris says AirScooters will be available for sale later this year at $50,000 apiece. http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archive...ll.html#189613 60 Minutes personality, Ed Bradley, was able to get the AirScooter* undercontrol in a few minutes of practice. This looks like the one to watch in the short term. ...DEEP POCKETS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE "60 Minutes" also looked at the CarterCopter and the Moller SkyCar. The CarterCopter prototype has been flying off and on for a few years, but was sidelined by a wheels-up landing and then by an in-flight fire. SkyCar inventor Paul Moller says his futuristic vehicle will fly like a "magic carpet," but so far it has test-flown only while tethered to a crane. But it probably comes closest to the Jetson-style flying car that people imagine the future should bring. Michael Kanellos, of CNET News, speculated last week that flying cars could be the next thing to attract the attention -- and the assets -- of the high-tech billionaires and entrepreneurs who have been funding much of the new space industry. http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archive...ll.html#189614 Perhaps these folks should be contacted regarding the latest developments in this area of aviation: http://www.venturewire.com/Default.aspx * http://www.airscooter.com/pages/airscooter_main.htm |
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