At last, the truth...

"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
. ..
"Gig 601XL Builder" wr.giacona@coxDOTnet wrote in
news:3isMe.1815$7f5.1413@okepread01:


"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
ups.com...
Check http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html for a quantitative
summary of trends. Private, commercial and instrument issuances are
down 12% since 2000. New aircraft shipments are down 10% since 2000.
Avgas sale is down almost 25% since 1999. OK, dying may be an
overstatement, but it is not looking rosy either. On the other hand,
this year's Airventure drew record crowds. I am not sure what to make
of that, but it is probably something similar to what happens in
spectator sports. Large number of people turn up to watch but very
few are able to participate.


Interesting....

Total Student Issuances
59,989
59,311
-1%
-678

Private Issuances
23,826
23,331
-2%
-495





You are comparing the 2004 numbers to 2003. I was comparing the 2004
numbers to the peak year (which in this case was 2002). The change in
private issuance is -18% in that case. Student pilot issuance is also -
11%.



Andrew, that is the worst job of sniping I've seen in a while. You sipped
everything I wrote which was in no way questioning your comparisons or even
your thesis.

Private Issuances
23,826
23,331
-2%
-495

You are comparing the 2004 numbers to 2003. I was
comparing
the 2004 numbers to the peak year (which in this case was
2002).

That was peak year as far back as AOPA went. It may be
relevant to the discussion that going back to 1971,
according to GAMA, the peak year was 1978, with 58,064 PP
Certificate issuances. And in that period (up through
1982), 8 of the years were over 50,000. It's not in AOPA's
interest to broadcast such things, I guess.

Fred F.

Gig 601XL Builder wrote:

Andrew, that is the worst job of sniping I've seen in a while. You sipped
everything I wrote which was in no way questioning your comparisons or even
your thesis.

His snipping is not so hot, either.

"Dave Butler" wrote in message
news:1124292929.497629@sj-nntpcache-3...
Gig 601XL Builder wrote:

Andrew, that is the worst job of sniping I've seen in a while. You sipped
everything I wrote which was in no way questioning your comparisons or
even your thesis.

His snipping is not so hot, either.

I was trying to save bandwidth.

Those "P's" cost money.

Huh? I did not snip anything. Your whole post was quoted in my reply.
Besides, I did not imply that you were questioning my statements. I was
simply clairfying why your numbers were different from mine.

"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
oups.com...
Huh? I did not snip anything. Your whole post was quoted in my reply.
Besides, I did not imply that you were questioning my statements. I was
simply clairfying why your numbers were different from mine.




===MY POST===
"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
ups.com...
Check http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html for a quantitative
summary of trends. Private, commercial and instrument issuances are
down 12% since 2000. New aircraft shipments are down 10% since 2000.
Avgas sale is down almost 25% since 1999. OK, dying may be an
overstatement, but it is not looking rosy either. On the other hand,
this year's Airventure drew record crowds. I am not sure what to make
of that, but it is probably something similar to what happens in
spectator sports. Large number of people turn up to watch but very few
are able to participate.


Interesting....

Total Student Issuances
59,989
59,311
-1%
-678

Private Issuances
23,826
23,331
-2%
-495




If you use these numbers you would get a pretty good feel for the number of
people who start and then don't get their license. If only 10% of the
drop-outs were retained that would be more than 3600 more private pilots.

==END MY POST==

==YOUR POST==
"Gig 601XL Builder" wr.giacona@coxDOTnet wrote in
news:3isMe.1815$7f5.1413@okepread01:


"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
ups.com...
Check http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html for a quantitative
summary of trends. Private, commercial and instrument issuances are
down 12% since 2000. New aircraft shipments are down 10% since 2000.
Avgas sale is down almost 25% since 1999. OK, dying may be an
overstatement, but it is not looking rosy either. On the other hand,
this year's Airventure drew record crowds. I am not sure what to make
of that, but it is probably something similar to what happens in
spectator sports. Large number of people turn up to watch but very
few are able to participate.


Interesting....

Total Student Issuances
59,989
59,311
-1%
-678

Private Issuances
23,826
23,331
-2%
-495





You are comparing the 2004 numbers to 2003. I was comparing the 2004
numbers to the peak year (which in this case was 2002). The change in
private issuance is -18% in that case. Student pilot issuance is also -
11%.

==END YOUR POST==

You removed what was essentially my entire post.

I'll argue that from two observations. First, not once in the last 33 years
have I seen the parking lots at the dorms with a single open space after
about 9:30 in the evening. This year they were at least 1/3 empty every
night.

Second, the traffic to get onto the field in the morning was nowhere NEAR as
congested as any other year.

Either they have stopped driving to Oshkosh or there were fewer people; I
suspect the latter.

Jim



"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
ups.com...


On the other hand,
this year's Airventure drew record crowds.

"RST Engineering" wrote in message
...
I'll argue that from two observations. First, not once in the last 33
years
have I seen the parking lots at the dorms with a single open space after
about 9:30 in the evening. This year they were at least 1/3 empty every
night.

Second, the traffic to get onto the field in the morning was nowhere NEAR
as
congested as any other year.

Either they have stopped driving to Oshkosh or there were fewer people; I
suspect the latter.

Nah, they have finally realized that it is cooler to camp on the field.
Wake up and smell the coffee! vbg

Really, I don't know about the daily attendance. It seemed to me to be
about the same, or up a very small amount. I do feel, without a doubt, that
the Saturday attendance watching the air show, was the biggest I have ever
seen, by a large amount, say 75% more than other
Saturday shows. The amount of homebuilts in the homebuilt showplane and
homebuilt camping area was the largest ever. (according to registration
totals)

Perhaps that is the key, the "watching the show" part. Maybe there was
almost nobody at the booths. I can't say; I was watching the show,
especially White Knight and Spaceship One.
--
Jim in NC

One observation about the Saturday traffic getting into the field.

My son and I took our time and didn't arrive until about 11am. Traffic was
nuts. From the time we left Hwy 41, until the time we parked, it took over
30 minutes. And we got lucky. We entered the line to park in the Red lot,
and they were vectoring most cars further south, luckily a few cars were
leaving the Red lot and they let a few of us in. Then it was packed again
and everybody continued south towards the brown lot.

On the flip side of that coin, the lines at the ticket counters were
non-existent. Both Wednesday and Saturday there was no waiting and several
open windows. And from my accounts it was NOT because the volunteers were
extra speedy or efficient. God bless them, but on Wednesday the lady that
waited on me didn't know what NAFI was, I actually had to point to where she
entered the membership number on the screen, and it was the only other
option available other than EAA #. That, I thought weird. On Saturday a
very nice man with a thick German accent helped us, and for the life of him,
he couldn't punch the correct buttons on the computer. He may have been
distracted by the young teenage blonde that was aimlessly wandering around
in the booth with next to nothing on, but I honestly had to make sure that I
hadn't bought 6 tickets instead of just 2. I took it all in stride,
thankfull that they are so generous with their time.

Jim



"Morgans" wrote in message
...

"RST Engineering" wrote in message
...
I'll argue that from two observations. First, not once in the last 33
years
have I seen the parking lots at the dorms with a single open space after
about 9:30 in the evening. This year they were at least 1/3 empty every
night.

Second, the traffic to get onto the field in the morning was nowhere
NEAR
as
congested as any other year.

Either they have stopped driving to Oshkosh or there were fewer people;
I
suspect the latter.

Nah, they have finally realized that it is cooler to camp on the field.
Wake up and smell the coffee! vbg

Really, I don't know about the daily attendance. It seemed to me to be
about the same, or up a very small amount. I do feel, without a doubt,
that
the Saturday attendance watching the air show, was the biggest I have ever
seen, by a large amount, say 75% more than other
Saturday shows. The amount of homebuilts in the homebuilt showplane and
homebuilt camping area was the largest ever. (according to registration
totals)

Perhaps that is the key, the "watching the show" part. Maybe there was
almost nobody at the booths. I can't say; I was watching the show,
especially White Knight and Spaceship One.
--
Jim in NC

"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
ups.com...
Check http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html for a quantitative
summary of trends. Private, commercial and instrument issuances are
down 12% since 2000. New aircraft shipments are down 10% since 2000.

On the other hand, there were more new private, commercial and (especially)
instrument pilots in 2004 than in 1997, and far more GA shipments in 2004
than in 1997. Yes, there was a spike in 2000 (just before the tech bubble
burst), but the overall trend seems more up than down.

Avgas sale is down almost 25% since 1999.

Maybe more pilots have learned how to lean the mixture.

--Gary