Scared of mid-airs

Jose wrote:
Well, a mathematics professor will tell you - even a zero probability
event can occur if you give it enough of a chance.

A mathematics professor will tell you that while there's not that much
difference between an infinitesimally small probability and zero
probability, there is a difference. The zero probability event can't
occur.

-R

On Fri, 05 May 2006 21:17:02 GMT, "Mortimer Schnerd, RN"
wrote in
::


Larry Dighera wrote:
Please explain how the 'big sky theory' will PROTECT you from a MAC.


Easy enough. As an old environmental biology professor once said to me:
"Dilution is the solution to pollution".

With all due respect, while that may be true for pollution, I don't
believe it is applicable to PROTECTION from a MAC.

What are the chances of another aircraft occupying the exact same airspace
at the exact same time as mine?

What are the chances of the cylinder containing a bullet? The only
way a Russian Roulette participant can be PROTECTED from blowing his
head off is if the cylinder is empty or the safety is on. Neither
analogy is available to airmen; there are always aircraft in the NAS.

That deems the 'big sky theory' irrelevant, in my opinion.

The odds go way up near natural collecting points ...

[Interesting antidotes snipped]

What you describe has nothing to do with PROTECTION and everything to
do with PROBABILITY. Thanks for the effort.

My point is, that there is no PROTECTION; if there were, there
wouldn't be any MACs.

And the 'big sky theory' is a fallacy. It's akin to the Tooth Fairy,
Easter Bunny, imaginary friends, ... Those who rely upon the 'big sky
theory to PROTECT them from a MAC are playing Russian Roulette.

-------------------

To further constrain the discussion of 'big sky theory,' here's a
definition: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_sky_theory

In aviation, the Big Sky Theory is that two randomly flying bodies
will likely never collide, as the three dimensional space is so
large relative to the bodies. Certain aviation safety rules are
based on this concept. It does not apply (or applies less) when
aircraft are flying along specific narrow routes, such as an
airport traffic pattern.

So the BST seems to have everything to do with probability, but very
little to do with protecting, guaranteeing, or indemnifying against a
MAC.

Additionally, the BST is flawed in that (as defined) it fails to
consider more than two aircraft in the air simultaneously.

Larry Dighera wrote:
[Interesting antidotes snipped]


"Antidotes"? Well, I am a nurse. G


What you describe has nothing to do with PROTECTION and everything to
do with PROBABILITY. Thanks for the effort.

My point is, that there is no PROTECTION; if there were, there
wouldn't be any MACs.


Then it would be best for you to stay on the ground. Probability has everything
to do with my actions. I think about the probability of a good or bad outcome
and act accordingly. If I was looking for certainty then I would do nothing.
But I prefer to live a somewhat richer life than that.



--
Mortimer Schnerd, RN

VE

Larry,

Those who rely upon the 'big sky
theory to PROTECT them from a MAC are playing Russian Roulette.


IMHO, your view of risk management is seriously flawed. You are asking
for zero risk, everything else is Russian Roulette, you say. However,
nothing in flying (and life) is 100-percent-risk free - there's never a
probability of zero for something undesirable to happen. The only way
to manage this risk is to look at the probability of something
happening and then decide if that probability is low enough for you to
live with it. And I guess we can all agree that there are many much
higher risks in GA flying than MACs.

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

On Fri, 05 May 2006 17:40:18 GMT, B A R R Y
wrote in ::

Do you ask for traffic advisories or VFR flight following from ATC?

I do on EVERY flight at an altitude that permits ATC to provide Radar
Traffic Advisory Service.

--

For instance, a pilot who has no fear of a mid-air is an idiot.
A pilot who flies without being constantly aware that he/she is
the main aspect of the mid-air avoidance equation is misguided.
--Dudley Henriques

Larry Dighera wrote:
On Fri, 05 May 2006 17:40:18 GMT, B A R R Y
wrote in ::

Do you ask for traffic advisories or VFR flight following from ATC?

I do on EVERY flight at an altitude that permits ATC to provide Radar
Traffic Advisory Service.


Same here, hence my asking... G

I've been told by controllers that even they prefer that we ask for
advisories, 'cause that makes one more aircraft talking to them and not
squawking 1200 and flying in the space incommunicato.

I even use them for sightseeing and practice (stalls, steep turns,
etc...) flights. Only once have I been denied due to workload.

On Fri, 05 May 2006 19:09:54 GMT, B A R R Y
wrote in ::

Larry Dighera wrote:
On Fri, 05 May 2006 17:40:18 GMT, B A R R Y
wrote in ::

Do you ask for traffic advisories or VFR flight following from ATC?

I do on EVERY flight at an altitude that permits ATC to provide Radar
Traffic Advisory Service.


Same here, hence my asking... G

I've been told by controllers that even they prefer that we ask for
advisories, 'cause that makes one more aircraft talking to them and not
squawking 1200 and flying in the space incommunicato.

I even use them for sightseeing and practice (stalls, steep turns,
etc...) flights. Only once have I been denied due to workload.

Watch out with that heretical stance least the true believers in the
Big Sky Theory characterize you a heathen. :-)

Thanks to all that took time to answer!

I went flying after posting, and tried not to focus on the fear.
It worked, but still sat in the back of my head.

Don't think my scan went down though.

I had a near miss once and The Netherlands.

My wife and I took off in a rented Warrior from Groningen (EHGG) to fly to
Oostende in Belgium (EBOS)

A bit west of the EHGG control zone (don't remember how far west) there is
class A airspace around Schiphol extending from 1500 feet and up.

Thus, all spam cans, UL's etc were having a ball between 1000 and 1450
feet....

:-)

i didn't see anyone until I could pick out the excact antenna formation on
the belly of a C172 thet passed me direct overhead....

And I was scanning, but missed a portion at the wrong moment.

I agree, A airspace from 1500 feet around Sciphol is not excactly the middle
of nowhere, so that fact figures in.

I have decided (for now) to avoid that area until I get my instrument
rating, and can file IFR through that part....

Strange thing was the previous time I flew there, ATC was constantly calling
out traffic to us VFR pilots on the Amsterdam info frequency (seperate from
the class A frequency)

I asked about traffic info after the near miss, and was told no radar
service today....

The rest of our trip (to Cannes in southern France) was uneventful.
Just saw a few sailplanes here and there, but they are generally easy to
pick out with their huge white wingspans.

Some might say it's madness to do a cross country from oslo to Cannes 10
days after getting the PPL, but I think that trip tought me more than I will
ever appreciate about flying. Great experience!


Anyway, thanks again for sharing. I feel better about the statistics, will
still keep a good scan, but will not worry anymore.
Bigger chance of being hit by a falling piano downtown I guess....

Frode


"Larry Dighera" skrev i melding
...
On Fri, 05 May 2006 19:09:54 GMT, B A R R Y
wrote in ::

Larry Dighera wrote:
On Fri, 05 May 2006 17:40:18 GMT, B A R R Y
wrote in ::

Do you ask for traffic advisories or VFR flight following from ATC?

I do on EVERY flight at an altitude that permits ATC to provide Radar
Traffic Advisory Service.


Same here, hence my asking... G

I've been told by controllers that even they prefer that we ask for
advisories, 'cause that makes one more aircraft talking to them and not
squawking 1200 and flying in the space incommunicato.

I even use them for sightseeing and practice (stalls, steep turns,
etc...) flights. Only once have I been denied due to workload.

Watch out with that heretical stance least the true believers in the
Big Sky Theory characterize you a heathen. :-)

I have decided (for now) to avoid that area until I get my instrument
rating, and can file IFR through that part....

....where you will still have to engage the Mark I eyeball.

Jose
--
The price of freedom is... well... freedom.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

Some might say it's madness to do a cross country from oslo to Cannes 10
days after getting the PPL, but I think that trip tought me more than I will
ever appreciate about flying. Great experience!

Good job. I encourage all pilots -- new ones and old -- to hop in the
plane and GO some place! Too danged many pilots never, ever, EVER
leave the pattern, or (at best) their neighboring $100 hamburger stop.

And then we wonder why some pilots quit flying, cuz they're "bored".
D'oh! I'd be bored, too.

Hop in the plane and fly 500 miles. Aim in whatever direction the
weather is best. Don't worry about what you'll do when you get there.
It is really, REALLY fun -- and you'll learn more about flying and
navigating while doing it.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"