Piloting is the second most dangerous occupation

On Mon, 13 Aug 2007 13:48:55 -0400, Dudley Henriques
wrote:

Sometimes I wonder how these stats are derived. I've been reading stats
all my life for this and for that. If there's one thing I've learned
about statistics it's that they can be skewed in just about any
direction desired by the manipulation of the micros involved to produce
the macros desired.
Another thing about statistics; take gambling as a perfect example.
There is an extremely high possibility that someone will win the
lottery. This is what motivates those who play the lottery.
On the other hand, the odds that the someone who wins will be you is
quite another matter.
It always amazes me that people insist on using the first analogy
instead of the second when considering a play on the lottery.
My wife and I have been playing the lottery game in abstentia for many
years. Each day we IMAGINE we have played our house and phone number to
the tune of a 2 dollar lottery ticket. We started doing this in 1965. It
is now 2007. We have played this "game" for 42 years based on the second
analogy of us NOT being the number that comes up.
As of today, we have placed 42 years worth of ticket bets at 365x2= 730
dollars a year x 42 years= 30,660 dollars worth of lottery tickets.
We haven't won naturally, but by using an unskewed statistic, we have
SAVED $30,660 dollars by NOT buying lottery tickets!
Not bad really. I enjoy playing the lottery :-))
Dudley Henriques

I wish I had been such a visionary in the 70's when I hit the legal
age to buy beer. I could be very well off by now IF I had just
IMAGINED drinking each of those beers for the last 33 years. :-))

On Aug 15, 6:56 am, wrote:
On Mon, 13 Aug 2007 13:48:55 -0400, Dudley Henriques





wrote:
Sometimes I wonder how these stats are derived. I've been reading stats
all my life for this and for that. If there's one thing I've learned
about statistics it's that they can be skewed in just about any
direction desired by the manipulation of the micros involved to produce
the macros desired.
Another thing about statistics; take gambling as a perfect example.
There is an extremely high possibility that someone will win the
lottery. This is what motivates those who play the lottery.
On the other hand, the odds that the someone who wins will be you is
quite another matter.
It always amazes me that people insist on using the first analogy
instead of the second when considering a play on the lottery.
My wife and I have been playing the lottery game in abstentia for many
years. Each day we IMAGINE we have played our house and phone number to
the tune of a 2 dollar lottery ticket. We started doing this in 1965. It
is now 2007. We have played this "game" for 42 years based on the second
analogy of us NOT being the number that comes up.
As of today, we have placed 42 years worth of ticket bets at 365x2= 730
dollars a year x 42 years= 30,660 dollars worth of lottery tickets.
We haven't won naturally, but by using an unskewed statistic, we have
SAVED $30,660 dollars by NOT buying lottery tickets!
Not bad really. I enjoy playing the lottery :-))
Dudley Henriques

I wish I had been such a visionary in the 70's when I hit the legal
age to buy beer. I could be very well off by now IF I had just
IMAGINED drinking each of those beers for the last 33 years.

Actually, I wish I had been that visionary 20 years ago when I started
smoking...sigh

"Gattman" wrote in message
...

"Dudley Henriques" wrote in message
...

I guess we went to different marketing schools :-)
If the general public feels professional flying is dangerous, my
experience as a professional pilot would indicate to me that the gain in
professional pay will be more than offset by the loss in customer
revenue.

Yeah, you definately need to spin your statistics depending on the target.
(As virtually all businesses do.)

IE, firefighting, cropdusting, flight instruction, test piloting etc are
extremely dangerous but the airlines are safe. Similarly, cruise ships
and
passenger ferryboat operations are statistically nowhere near as dangerous
as operating a fishing boat, but they all have a skipper.

I saw the report that this is about when it aired on TV. We paused report
(gotta love DVRs) and viewed it again just because I couldn't believe my
eyes. Let's see...it's more dangerous than firefighting, law enforcement,
kick boxing; naturally, though the statistic was backed by nothing
substantial.

-c



IIRC, whatever happened to Tower Rigging--which I heard was a long term
shoo-in for win, place, or show in the dangerous occupation derby. Or was
this such a generalized report that dangerous specilties were omitted?

Peter