How dangerous is soaring?

On 31 Oct, 00:56, 1LK wrote:
At my present age, my risk of dying on any given day is in the range
of 1 in 80.

How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you have a
79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
better survival rate than that ...

Ian

On Oct 31, 5:36 am, Ian wrote:
How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you
have a
79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
better survival rate than that ...

Ian

Well under 100. Ian (although not as far under as I'd like). It's a
multifactorial analysis and some of the factors that go into it are
personal, but, given the assumptions, it's probably a decent
characterization. The risk isn't additive, BTW; it remains about the
same day to day as long as the factors used to calculate it are
stable.

Ray Warshaw
1LK

On 31 Oct, 11:32, 1LK wrote:
On Oct 31, 5:36 am, Ian wrote:
How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you
have a

79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
better survival rate than that ...

Ian

Well under 100. Ian (although not as far under as I'd like). It's a
multifactorial analysis and some of the factors that go into it are
personal, but, given the assumptions, it's probably a decent
characterization. The risk isn't additive, BTW; it remains about the
same day to day as long as the factors used to calculate it are
stable.

So you really do only have a 1% chance of being here next year? What
are you doing posting to Usenet - go flying. It's probably not worth
buying a flarm, by the way. Or a parachute.

Ian

Well Patrick, I think you need to research ( along with HF) why those
aircraft failed. You still have a 98.7% chance of killing yourself ,
1.2% someone will slice thru you , and I'll give you .1% your aircraft
will fail at no fault to yourself. All this of course if anything
happens at all.
I think you should quit and collect stamps because your mind is on
death and not the business at hand.You think some kind of roulette
wheel is spinning with everyones name on it and you're next. With that
kind of confidence, you're a magnet for an accident.
Enjoy your snow, but I bet you'll shake this nonsense.
And as old Gus said, the best way to treat death is to ride off from
it.
R

Anybody want to talk about head-on collisions on a two lane highway?