How dangerous is soaring?

On 31 Oct, 11:32, 1LK wrote:
On Oct 31, 5:36 am, Ian wrote:
How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you
have a

79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
better survival rate than that ...

Ian

Well under 100. Ian (although not as far under as I'd like). It's a
multifactorial analysis and some of the factors that go into it are
personal, but, given the assumptions, it's probably a decent
characterization. The risk isn't additive, BTW; it remains about the
same day to day as long as the factors used to calculate it are
stable.

So you really do only have a 1% chance of being here next year? What
are you doing posting to Usenet - go flying. It's probably not worth
buying a flarm, by the way. Or a parachute.

Ian

On Oct 31, 8:09 am, Ian wrote:
On 31 Oct, 11:32, 1LK wrote:





On Oct 31, 5:36 am, Ian wrote:
How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you
have a

79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
better survival rate than that ...

Ian

Well under 100. Ian (although not as far under as I'd like). It's a
Not exactly. The odds ratio applies to any point in time; it's
neither cumulative or additive. I have a 98.75% chance of being here
tomorrow; on a day a year from now I'll have roughly the same odds of
being here a day after that.

I do wear a parachute, BTW, but again, given my age and condition,
it's not certain that I could extract myself successfully from a lawn
dart. I wear it because I'd rather be busy trying to use it, than
sitting on my hands waiting to hit the ground.

As you know, FLARM isn't usable here (US), but I'm planning to add a
transponder and an ELT this year. I take aspirin as well. Not sure
why I post to Usinet, perhaps the riskiest activity of all.

I control what I can and accept the rest and, yes, I think I'll go
flying.

Ray Warshaw
1LK

multifactorial analysis and some of the factors that go into it are
personal, but, given the assumptions, it's probably a decent
characterization. The risk isn't additive, BTW; it remains about the
same day to day as long as the factors used to calculate it are
stable.

So you really do only have a 1% chance of being here next year? What
are you doing posting to Usenet - go flying. It's probably not worth
buying a flarm, by the way. Or a parachute.

Ian- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

On 31 Oct, 19:11, 1LK wrote:

Not exactly. The odds ratio applies to any point in time; it's
neither cumulative or additive. I have a 98.75% chance of being here
tomorrow; on a day a year from now I'll have roughly the same odds of
being here a day after that.

If you have a 98.75% chance of being here tomorrow, then you have a
98.75% x 98.75% chance of being here a day after that, a 98.75% x
98.75% x 98.75% chance of seeing Sunday and so on.

Sure, /if/ you make it to 1st November 2008 you have a 98.75% chance
of making it to 2nd ... but there's only a 1% chance, on these
figures, that you'll put it to the test.

Ian

On Oct 31, 7:11 pm, 1LK wrote:
Not exactly. The odds ratio applies to any point in time; it's
neither cumulative or additive. I have a 98.75% chance of being here
tomorrow; on a day a year from now I'll have roughly the same odds of
being here a day after that.

Think of it like tossing a coin to see whether you live. The
probability
of each toss being "heads" is 0.5, and is independent of the previous
results.

To stay alive for a week, you have to toss "heads" 7 times in a row,
and the probability of that is 0.5 ^ 7 = 0.078125 = 1 in 128

Personally, I hope you have more than a 0.9875 ^ 365 chance of
being alive in a year. (i.e. 0.01014 or 1 in 98).

Of course, if you are still alive in a year, there would be the same
chance (0.9875) that you would be alive in a year and a day.