Future of Electronics In Aviation

Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 22, 1:14 pm, wrote:
On Jun 22, 2:01 am, Le Chaud Lapin wrote:

But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.
In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.
Just like the Segway. I have seen ONE of those things. Really
popular. Everybody wanted one, didn't they?

Not sure if they did. I remember there was a lot of interest, but one
must not confuse intellectual curiosity with inclination to purchase.
The average consumer simply does not have an extra $5000US ($10,000US
in France) for a vehicle that moves slower than the average teenager
can run (~20km/h, 12.5mph) and requires 4-6 hours to charge for a
range of up to 40km.


The exact words used in the pre-launch hype surrounding the Segway were,
'Revolutionary and will change the way the world travels." Pretty much
exactly what you are saying about PAVs.

On Jun 23, 11:57*am, Gig 601Xl Builder
wrote:
Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 22, 1:14 pm, wrote:
On Jun 22, 2:01 am, Le Chaud Lapin wrote:

But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.
In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.
* * * Just like the Segway. I have seen ONE of those things. Really
popular. Everybody wanted one, didn't they?

Not sure if they did. *I remember there was a lot of interest, but one
must not confuse intellectual curiosity with inclination to purchase.
The average consumer simply does not have an extra $5000US ($10,000US
in France) for a vehicle that moves slower than the average teenager
can run (~20km/h, 12.5mph) and requires 4-6 hours to charge for a
range of up to 40km.

The exact words used in the pre-launch hype surrounding the Segway were,
* 'Revolutionary and will change the way the world travels." Pretty much
exactly what you are saying about PAVs

The difference is that there is already a market for PAV's. The
question is whether anyone (not just pilots in rec.aviation.pilot, but
anyone anyone), would want a PAV that satisfied the criteria outlined
by NASA/CAFE.

My most expensive round-trip ticket to Paris cost $2016US. I sat next
to a couple who was angry for most of 10+ hour flight because I asked
them to relinquish my (pre-allocated) window seat, preventing them
from using it as a bed for their screaming child.

Many people already need to fly from one location to another, and
would be willing to pay $50,000 for ownership of a vehicle that could
get them to destination safely and comfortably (no headset). They
probably would not pay $500,000 for a the same machine, and certainly
not $1+ milllion, which is what is required for a near-equivalent of
B777 experience.

Some people might have paid $300-$500, maybe a bit less, for a machine
that barely moves faster than we walk, but not $5000.

Segway is is too expensive for what it offers.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 23, 11:57 am, Gig 601Xl Builder
wrote:
Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 22, 1:14 pm, wrote:
On Jun 22, 2:01 am, Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.
In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.
Just like the Segway. I have seen ONE of those things. Really
popular. Everybody wanted one, didn't they?
Not sure if they did. I remember there was a lot of interest, but one
must not confuse intellectual curiosity with inclination to purchase.
The average consumer simply does not have an extra $5000US ($10,000US
in France) for a vehicle that moves slower than the average teenager
can run (~20km/h, 12.5mph) and requires 4-6 hours to charge for a
range of up to 40km.
The exact words used in the pre-launch hype surrounding the Segway were,
'Revolutionary and will change the way the world travels." Pretty much
exactly what you are saying about PAVs

The difference is that there is already a market for PAV's. The
question is whether anyone (not just pilots in rec.aviation.pilot, but
anyone anyone), would want a PAV that satisfied the criteria outlined
by NASA/CAFE.

No there isn't. But if you can at least support the statement.




My most expensive round-trip ticket to Paris cost $2016US. I sat next
to a couple who was angry for most of 10+ hour flight because I asked
them to relinquish my (pre-allocated) window seat, preventing them
from using it as a bed for their screaming child.

Many people already need to fly from one location to another, and
would be willing to pay $50,000 for ownership of a vehicle that could
get them to destination safely and comfortably (no headset). They
probably would not pay $500,000 for a the same machine, and certainly
not $1+ milllion, which is what is required for a near-equivalent of
B777 experience.


Those people who flew first class with you certainly aren't going to fly
their flying car to France.


Some people might have paid $300-$500, maybe a bit less, for a machine
that barely moves faster than we walk, but not $5000.

Segway is is too expensive for what it offers.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

As opposed to your PAV which isn't and can't be offered.

Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 21, 10:05 pm, wrote:
In rec.aviation.piloting Le Chaud Lapin wrote:

On Jun 21, 4:15?pm, wrote:
Your basic premise is utter nonsense and naive.
Gee-whiz components will just drive the cost of flying up, further
reducing the pilot population.
And don't even bother with you childish blather about "commodities"
as the mass market has to exist BEFORE something can become a
commodity.
Hmm..are you sure?
Yes.





There are a lot of products that were created on the premise that,
even though there is not yet a market present, the market will exist
by virtue of the product:
* ball-point pen
* sticky-notes from 3M
* Sony Walkman, Discman
* Atari game console
* waverunner
* Kevlar
* Velcro
* microwave oven
* various medicines and lubricants for psychosexual impotence and
frigidity
* gasoline additives
* mosquito repellant
* baby wipes
* polarized sunglasses
* pet rock (came and went)
* USB memory sticks
* DVD player
The creators of these products speculate that the market might want
the product, but the speculation is grounded in reason.
And all those products are free compared to the price of an airplane.

The most expensive thing on your list of wonders is at least 3 orders
of magnitude less in price than an airplane ever could be.

But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.

In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

It shows nothing of the sort. Most of those items were just new products
that evolved from older products. We could start a real long list of
products that didn't catch on.

I know many people who purchase high end cars that would never in a
million years buy the CAFE inspired PAV.

On Jun 23, 11:50*am, Gig 601Xl Builder
wrote:
Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
It shows nothing of the sort. Most of those items were just new products
that evolved from older products. We could start a real long list of
products that didn't catch on.

I know many people who purchase high end cars that would never in a
million years buy the CAFE inspired PAV.-

That does not mean that others would not.

Over the years I have bought my friends, nieces, nephews, and
godchildren various electronic gadgets like iPod's, XBOX's, Nintendo,
etc but it is very rare that I buy something like that for myself. But
they like it, and many people will like PAV's.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 23, 11:50 am, Gig 601Xl Builder
wrote:
Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
It shows nothing of the sort. Most of those items were just new products
that evolved from older products. We could start a real long list of
products that didn't catch on.

I know many people who purchase high end cars that would never in a
million years buy the CAFE inspired PAV.-

That does not mean that others would not.

Over the years I have bought my friends, nieces, nephews, and
godchildren various electronic gadgets like iPod's, XBOX's, Nintendo,
etc but it is very rare that I buy something like that for myself. But
they like it, and many people will like PAV's.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

So you are counting on the gift market to sell your PAV?

On Jun 23, 2:21*pm, Gig 601Xl Builder
wrote:
Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 23, 11:50 am, Gig 601Xl Builder
wrote:
Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
It shows nothing of the sort. Most of those items were just new products
that evolved from older products. We could start a real long list of
products that didn't catch on.

I know many people who purchase high end cars that would never in a
million years buy the CAFE inspired PAV.-

That does not mean that others would not.

Over the years I have bought my friends, nieces, nephews, and
godchildren various electronic gadgets like iPod's, XBOX's, Nintendo,
etc but it is very rare that I buy something like that for myself. But
they like it, and many people will like PAV's.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

So you are counting on the gift market to sell your PAV?

Hah...

I was thinking...a great enabler of the PAV market would be rentals,
just as today, but cheaper.

-Le Chaud Lapin-