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#1
December 2nd 04, 03:28 AM
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"Mike Rapoport" writes:
So the bottom line here is that the accident rate for personal flying is about twice the figure that pilots like to start with! OK, let's say that's true. You still don't address our basic premise, which is that 1. A large fraction of the total Personal Flying accident rate is composed of pilot-controllable causes: flying into marginal weather, buzzing, etc. 2. The poster's hubby, if he's a careful fellow, can reduce that fraction of accidents and thus be pretty safe--perhaps approaching ground vehicle safety, perhaps not, but certainly reducing his personal accident rate below the average rate, whatever it is. I still would say that one's personal flying accident rate is probably going to be higher than one's personal driving accident rate, but it need not conform to average statistical rates, because flying accidents are more preventable than driving accidents. 
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#2
December 2nd 04, 06:04 AM
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"Bob Fry" wrote in message ... "Mike Rapoport" writes: So the bottom line here is that the accident rate for personal flying is about twice the figure that pilots like to start with! OK, let's say that's true. You still don't address our basic premise, which is that 1. A large fraction of the total Personal Flying accident rate is composed of pilot-controllable causes: flying into marginal weather, buzzing, etc. 2. The poster's hubby, if he's a careful fellow, can reduce that fraction of accidents and thus be pretty safe--perhaps approaching ground vehicle safety, perhaps not, but certainly reducing his personal accident rate below the average rate, whatever it is. I still would say that one's personal flying accident rate is probably going to be higher than one's personal driving accident rate, but it need not conform to average statistical rates, because flying accidents are more preventable than driving accidents. OK thats fair, I never objected that pilots don't have some control over the risk. I object to the notion that they can reduce their accident risk by 90% or so and I object to the practice of using numbers that have much safer flying included. The reality is that a *lot* of fatal personal flying accidents are not marginal weather or stupid pilot tricks. Only 13% of fatal accidents are attributed to weather and presumably VFR into IMC is only a portion of this. Mechanical/maitenance is 14% and we an not talking about lack of maitenance we are talking about maitenance errors. Only 6% of the 70% pilot related accidents are attributed to fuel mis-management. There are a *lot* of accidents that aren't avoided by prudence. We might as well accept that. Mike MU-2
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#3
December 3rd 04, 06:06 PM
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"Just fun I took a detailed look at a random sample of accidents from
the NTSB Web Site. Admittedly this is just a small random sample and may or probably not be representative of the overall statistics. Also some interpretation as to what happened each of these accidents is involved. I Selected the Month of May 2004 as being a likely month of slightly above average General aviation Activity. Currently I have only looked at May 1 thru May 15th. I included only Single engine General Aviation activities. Here is a summary of these dates: 54 total accidents or incidents 5 accidents had Fatalities. Fatal accident rate = 9.2% I read this to mean if involved in an accident there is a 9.2% chance of a fatality occurring or a 91.8% chance it will not be fatal. Fatal Causes we IMC Weather, Unknown loss of control, flying low, Off airport landing, Pilot skill issue. 16 Mechanical related accidents, at least 3 should have been preventable with better pilot skill or judgment. INTERESTING: NONE OF THE MECHNICALS WERE FATAL 13 Pilot Skill related accident where better pilot skills or judgement would likely have prevented. Only one of these was FATAL. 7 Fuel Related accidents (Ran out, Contaminated, or did not manage properly) 3 due to flying to low 5 due to Instructor Skill/Judgment ie. The instructor should have prevented it. 2 due to off airport landings 2 Turbulance 1 Other – Backhoe backed into a taxing airplane 1 IMC conditions 1 Unknown – Loss of control for unknown reasons Note this does not say anything about how safe flying is, since it does not reference at all how much total flight time or was flown during this time period. All it does say is the "Crashing is dangerous" and if you crash here are the statistics as to how you will most likely do it in the 1st part of May. Here is the data I used Factual Philadelphia, MS Sawyer Skybolt N32DS Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Low Preliminary Elberta, AL Cessna 182A N5099D Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Fuel parachute Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Harrisonville, MO Cessna 172K N7448G Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation dual Factual Cambridge, OH Krotje VM-1 Esqual N626EA Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation mech experimental Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Phoenix, AZ Cessna 182K N2493Q Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Preliminary Riverside, CA Cessna 195 N195AF Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Probable Cause 9/29/2004 Laurel, MT Piper PA-18-105 N5483H Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Low Sunday, May 02, 2004 Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Lake Dallas, TX Cessna 150J N60539 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech/Skill Monday, May 03, 2004 Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Winder, GA Beech BE-65 (LF-23F) N870KS Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill/Fuel Preliminary Cary, NC Mooney M20M N91514 Fatal(2) Part 91: General Aviation Fatal Weather IFR Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Goldthwaite, TX Cessna 150E N3050J Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Fuel Tuesday, May 04, 2004 Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Odessa, FL Cessna 172N N737HW Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Wednesday, May 05, 2004 Preliminary Cumming, GA Gary Bergmann RANS S-12XL N8KD Fatal(1) Part 91: General Aviation Fatal Low experimental Probable Cause 6/30/2004 Schaumburg, IL Cessna 172P N65752 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Falcon, CO Ercoupe (Eng & Research Corp.) N94405 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Turbulance Thursday, May 06, 2004 Factual Kasilof, AK Piper PA-18 N2521S Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Off airport Probable Cause 9/29/2004 Blounts Creek, NC Riggs Skyraider 1 N321TR Fatal(1) Part 91: General Aviation Fatal Fuel/Contamination experimental Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Fort Pierce, FL Beech H35 N87AD Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Pottstown, PA Cessna 152 N94577 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Dual Friday, May 07, 2004 Probable Cause 9/29/2004 Paragonah, UT Branham Vans RV-6 N29KB Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Fuel experimental Probable Cause 9/29/2004 Natrona, WY Crimmins Smyth Sidewinder N92AC Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation fuel/contamination experimental Probable Cause 9/29/2004 Many, LA Piper PA-28-181 N21131 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Preliminary Tipton, CA Rocket Flyers LLC N724TL Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech experimental Factual Sharon, MA Cessna T-50 N45P Fatal(1) Part 91: General Aviation Fatal Off airport Saturday, May 08, 2004 Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Mayetta, KS Villeneuve RV-3 N12JV Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill/Wind experimental Probable Cause 7/29/2004 DeKalb, IL Piper PA-28RT-201 N81898 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation dual Probable Cause 10/28/2004 Englewood, CO Cessna A185E N185K Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Fuel Probable Cause 9/29/2004 Fort Stockton, TX Aeronca 7AC N3708E Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech/Skill Factual Cumberland, MD Taylorcraft BC N26644 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Turbulance Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Crystal River, FL Beech A23A N3659Q Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech/Skill Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Shirley, NY Cessna 170B N1754D Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech Sunday, May 09, 2004 Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Hartford, WI Piper PA-12 N2368M Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech Probable Cause 9/29/2004 Georgetown, TX Diamond Aircraft Industries DA N89SE Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Midair Probable Cause 9/29/2004 Georgetown, TX Giles 202 N202XS Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Midair Factual Broadview, MT 2003 Nash Kitfox II N308KF Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech expermental Monday, May 10, 2004 Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Oil City, LA Piper PA-38-112 N24007 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech/Skill Factual Daytona Beach, FL Beech A36 N3670S Incident Part 91: General Aviation Mech Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Battle Ground, WA Cessna 172P N54477 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Dual/Wind Tuesday, May 11, 2004 Preliminary Chamblee, GA Cessna 172RG N6562V Incident Part 91: General Aviation Mech Preliminary Cortland, AL Piper PA-28-140 N7123R Fatal(1) Part 91: General Aviation Fatal Skill Wednesday, May 12, 2004 Preliminary Lake Worth, FL Beech K35 N551PK Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Halifax, MA Aviat A-1B N17MR Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Thursday, May 13, 2004 Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Grantham, NC Loehle Ent. 2/3 Earlybird Jenn N112PE Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech Experimental Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Tucson, AZ Piper PA-28-161 N84245 Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Other Preliminary Carson City, NV Piper PA-28-180 N7584W Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Wauseon, OH Fraker Mustang II N78K Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech Experimental Factual Shelton, WA Piper PA-22-20 N1829P Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech Friday, May 14, 2004 Preliminary New Bern, NC Piper PA-32-260 N3260W Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Mech Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Kingman, AZ Cessna 180 N6430X Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Dual/Skill Factual Lancaster, CA Downer Bellanca 14-19-2 N7658B Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Fuel/Skill Factual Paulden, AZ Cessna T182T N5341G Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Probable Cause 9/1/2004 Sacramento, KY Cessna 150 N7795E Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill/wind Saturday, May 15, 2004 Probable Cause 7/29/2004 Fort Leavenwort, KS Cessna 172C N1806Y Nonfatal Part 91: General Aviation Skill Preliminary Supai, AZ Bachman Lancair IV P N299SD Fatal(4) Part 91: General Aviation Fatal Unknown
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#4
December 1st 04, 10:56 PM
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A plane crash is news. A car crash normally isn't.
-- Chris Ehlbeck, PP-ASEL "It's a license to learn, have fun and buy really expensive hamburgers." "June" wrote in message om... I need some information from people 'in the field'. My husband has his private license and is just starting to work on his IFR for recreational flying. He wants to buy into a plane partnership, saying he will be saving money rather than renting. We have 2 little girls. I worry for his safety as it seems there is another small plane crash every other time you turn on the news. I think he should focus on this hobby when the kids are older, not when he has such a young family. Your opinions would be appreciated.
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#5
December 6th 04, 02:05 PM
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You are (statistically speaking) more likely to get stuck by lightning,
and win the lottery than get injured in a small plane crash. The only reason you hear about plane crashes on the news is that they happen so rarely that each time it is considered newsworthy. Imagine if there were a front page news report everytime there was an auto crash... June wrote: I need some information from people 'in the field'. My husband has his private license and is just starting to work on his IFR for recreational flying. He wants to buy into a plane partnership, saying he will be saving money rather than renting. We have 2 little girls. I worry for his safety as it seems there is another small plane crash every other time you turn on the news. I think he should focus on this hobby when the kids are older, not when he has such a young family. Your opinions would be appreciated.
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#6
December 6th 04, 02:48 PM
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"skycaptain" wrote in message oups.com... You are (statistically speaking) more likely to get stuck by lightning, and win the lottery than get injured in a small plane crash. The only reason you hear about plane crashes on the news is that they happen so rarely that each time it is considered newsworthy. Imagine if there were a front page news report everytime there was an auto crash... References?
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#7
December 7th 04, 03:29 AM
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