WAS: How safe is it, really?

"tony roberts" wrote in message
news:nospam-50EC3C.21560030112004@shawnews...
Hi Dave

Could you give me a link to that info?

Thanks

Tony

It's the Nall report on the AOPA WEB site

"June" wrote:
I really appreciate you all taking the time to express you opinions.
Some very good points were made that I hadn't considered.

So, I will try not to worry so much and not give him any more grief
about his hobby. I'm sure he'd thank you guys for your efforts!

Your husband's a lucky guy, June.

Best,
--
Dan
C-172RG at BFM

Dave Stadt wrote:
The leading cause of fatal accidents is maneuvering flight at 30%. The
second leading cause is takeoff and climb at 18%. Third is weather related

Takeoff and climb is not a cause of accident.

Perhaps you mean that 18% occur during takeoff and climb,
which is something very different than cause.

Simplistically we could claim that takeoff causes 100% of
accidents, since if you hadn't taken off there would have
been no accident. This is like claiming getting out of bed
in the morning as the cause for 100% of traffic accidents
(and aviation and most other accidents for that matter).

Cheers CV

zatatime wrote:

On Wed, 01 Dec 2004 03:59:48 GMT, tony roberts
wrote:

BUT:
Most light aircraft accidents are caused through continued flight into
IFR (read - don't even attempt to fly there there) weather.

To be more clear: The accidents of this type are for VFR (good
weather) pilots without training on how to effectively operate an
aircraft in IFR (bad weather) conditions.

According to AOPA, more instrument rated pilots get into this situation than VFR
pilots.

George Patterson
If a man gets into a fight 3,000 miles away from home, he *had* to have
been looking for it.

"zatatime" wrote in message news:
On Wed, 01 Dec 2004 03:59:48 GMT, tony roberts
wrote:

BUT:
Most light aircraft accidents are caused through continued flight into
IFR (read - don't even attempt to fly there there) weather.


To be more clear: The accidents of this type are for VFR (good
weather) pilots without training on how to effectively operate an
aircraft in IFR (bad weather) conditions.

Not just VFR pilots. Happens to a surprising number if instrument rated
pilots (flying VFR) as well. I'll try to find some stats.

m

G.R. Patterson III wrote:

According to AOPA, more instrument rated pilots get into this situation
than VFR pilots.

That statement was made during an ASF presentation I attended a while ago.
It puzzled me. Why would a IR pilot fly VFR into IMC?

Lack of currency, perhaps? Is there a breakdown of how many of those IR
pilots were current?

Something other motivation?

- Andrew

"G.R. Patterson III" wrote in message
...


BUT:
Most light aircraft accidents are caused through continued flight into
IFR (read - don't even attempt to fly there there) weather.

To be more clear: The accidents of this type are for VFR (good
weather) pilots without training on how to effectively operate an
aircraft in IFR (bad weather) conditions.

According to AOPA, more instrument rated pilots get into this situation
than VFR
pilots.

This is similar to how my CFII explained the double-edged sword of the
rating. On one hand, it makes you much more capable of flying in
less-than-perfect weather. On the other, it means you're much more likely to
encounter weather beyond your abilities. If you scrupulously limit yourself
to trips of no more than a few hours in good day VFR there is really very
little that can get you. And there are whole categories of stuff like
t-storms and icing, that really only happen in the instrument environment.

-cwk.

C Kingsbury wrote:

On the other, it means you're much more likely to
encounter weather beyond your abilities.

What was said during the ASF presentation is that this is a problem not of
pilots under IFR encountering weather but IR pilots continuing VFR into
IMC.

- Andrew

I'm not sure what "reasearch" you did. Only 13% of fatal accidents are
attributed to weather. http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/03nall.pdf

Mike
MU-2


"tony roberts" wrote in message
news:nospam-357D7A.20020930112004@shawnews...
Hi June

I only just found this thread so my comments are a little late.

So, I will try not to worry so much and not give him any more grief
about his hobby. I'm sure he'd thank you guys for your efforts!

I honestly believe that you are making a good decision.

My family did a lot of research into this, prior to me taking my licence
and purchasing a plane.

Here is what we found.

The typical aircraft accident rate is comparable to the typical
motorcycle accident rate.

BUT:
Most light aircraft accidents are caused through continued flight into
IFR (read - don't even attempt to fly there there) weather.

Then we have all of the pilots who fly drunk/doped.

When you remove those from the equation - If you can trust that he CAN
remove those from the equation - and they represent most of the
accidents, what is left is pilot error and mechanical failure.

Pilot error comes down to training/aptitude
Mechanical error is rare - the standards for maintaining aircraft, and
for rebuilding engines, are tough.

So we started out with an accident rate similar to motorcycles,
But we do have a lot of control over a lot of those accidents.

At the end of the day?
A consciencious pilot, who is not taking risks, and is flying a well
maintained aircraft, is very safe.

He's not cast iron - but he is as safe as he can be.

Worth thinking about

Tony

--

Tony Roberts
PP-ASEL
VFR OTT
Night
Cessna 172H C-GICE








In article ,
(June) wrote:

I really appreciate you all taking the time to express you opinions.
Some very good points were made that I hadn't considered.



June

On Wed, 01 Dec 2004 05:05:47 GMT, "Dave Stadt"
wrote:


"zatatime" wrote in message
.. .
On Wed, 01 Dec 2004 03:59:48 GMT, tony roberts
wrote:

BUT:
Most light aircraft accidents are caused through continued flight into
IFR (read - don't even attempt to fly there there) weather.


To be more clear: The accidents of this type are for VFR (good
weather) pilots without training on how to effectively operate an
aircraft in IFR (bad weather) conditions. For June's understanding,
these are people that only have the license your husband got first.
Since he is now working toward his instrument ticket these statistics
are greatly reduced.

Just don't want you to think that the added training he is going for
makes this far more dangerous. It will actually make him safer
overall.

z

I don't believe statistically IFR rated pilots have a better safety record.
It is a false assumption.


IFR pilot's have a better safety record in IFR conditions than VFR
pilots do in IFR conditions, which is all I was trying to say. I may
not have been perfectly clear.

z