Six-Place Composite?

"Marco Leon" wrote:
Who do you all think will be the first to come out with a new certified
single-engine, six-place composite (non-aluminium) airframe? Given Cirrus'
success, all the manufacturers are undoubtedly thinking about this. Any
bets
on the Beechcraft-Cessna-Piper trio before Cirrus and Diamond?

Don't bet on Beechcraft-Cessna-Piper to make any kind of stab at certifying a
new light SE airplane.

Beechcraft is playing out the Bonanza/Baron string, seeing just how high they
can price them and still sell enough to keep production going. Guys like me
who have always lusted for a Bo' are aging Baby Boomers, there's no one new
coming along that cares enough about the brand to spend $800K on a SE piston
airplane. Raytheon will shut it down when that market fizzles out.

Piper is a walking corpse à la Mooney, perpetually being revived in the
bankruptcy courts. The idea that they could attract enough development
capital for a new design and certification process is pure fantasy.

Cessna would be a very long shot. Enough alternatives to the 172 are coming
along that the natural-progression pipeline to 182s and 206s will dry up.
Cessna will either have to come up with something new or face increasing loss
of market share to modern designs. Oshkosh rumors notwithstanding, there
doesn't seem to be anything serious going on at Cessna WRT a new SE airplane.

These companies have missed the modern light aircraft boat; it sailed away
with Cirrus and Diamond aboard, pulling Lancair behind in an innertube.
--
Dan
C-172RG at BFM

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"Marco Leon" wrote:
Who do you all think will be the first to come out with a new certified
single-engine, six-place composite (non-aluminium) airframe? Given
Cirrus'
success, all the manufacturers are undoubtedly thinking about this. Any
bets
on the Beechcraft-Cessna-Piper trio before Cirrus and Diamond?

Don't bet on Beechcraft-Cessna-Piper to make any kind of stab at
certifying a
new light SE airplane.

Beechcraft is playing out the Bonanza/Baron string, seeing just how high
they
can price them and still sell enough to keep production going. Guys like
me
who have always lusted for a Bo' are aging Baby Boomers, there's no one
new
coming along that cares enough about the brand to spend $800K on a SE
piston
airplane. Raytheon will shut it down when that market fizzles out.

Piper is a walking corpse à la Mooney, perpetually being revived in the
bankruptcy courts. The idea that they could attract enough development
capital for a new design and certification process is pure fantasy.

Cessna would be a very long shot. Enough alternatives to the 172 are
coming
along that the natural-progression pipeline to 182s and 206s will dry up.
Cessna will either have to come up with something new or face increasing
loss
of market share to modern designs. Oshkosh rumors notwithstanding, there
doesn't seem to be anything serious going on at Cessna WRT a new SE
airplane.

These companies have missed the modern light aircraft boat; it sailed away
with Cirrus and Diamond aboard, pulling Lancair behind in an innertube.
--
Dan
C-172RG at BFM


Dan I believe your right.
They should be able to build and sell an A36 for 150,000 depending on
avionics. There really is not that much to an airplane. I may be missing
something like the cost of the insurance, but there just isn't that much to
a single engine plane.

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...
They should be able to build and sell an A36 for 150,000 depending on
avionics. There really is not that much to an airplane. I may be missing
something like the cost of the insurance, but there just isn't that much
to a single engine plane.

Of course there is. Airplanes aren't produced in large enough quantities to
take advantage of modern automated mass-production techniques; they are
essentially hand built. And of course there are all the costs associated
with complying with regulatory requirements.

Just because the cost of materials is relatively low, that doesn't mean it
doesn't cost a lot to produce an airplane.

I think it highly unlikely that, given the large number of aircraft
manufacturers, that they are all colluding on the price. And that's the
only way to explain how prices are so high if your assertion about what they
*should* cost is correct.

In any case, I think you entirely misunderstood Dan's point. The
manufacturers he cites as positive examples aren't selling aircraft any
cheaper than the negative examples he gives.

Pete

"Peter Duniho" wrote in message
...
"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...
They should be able to build and sell an A36 for 150,000 depending on
avionics. There really is not that much to an airplane. I may be missing
something like the cost of the insurance, but there just isn't that much
to a single engine plane.

Of course there is. Airplanes aren't produced in large enough quantities
to take advantage of modern automated mass-production techniques; they are
essentially hand built. And of course there are all the costs associated
with complying with regulatory requirements.

Just because the cost of materials is relatively low, that doesn't mean it
doesn't cost a lot to produce an airplane.

I think it highly unlikely that, given the large number of aircraft
manufacturers, that they are all colluding on the price. And that's the
only way to explain how prices are so high if your assertion about what
they *should* cost is correct.

In any case, I think you entirely misunderstood Dan's point. The
manufacturers he cites as positive examples aren't selling aircraft any
cheaper than the negative examples he gives.

Pete

To me a large qty would be 200-300. If they went out and just built that
qty. I believe and I could be wrong they could produce the plane for that
price.
I have been a machinist for 30 years building aircraft parts. I had my own
shop with 41 employees and 21 CNC machines.

Now lets go out on a limb, build 1000 planes at the special pricing. I think
there would be a lot of buyers for a new A36 @ 150000. I would probably be
one of them.

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...
To me a large qty would be 200-300. If they went out and just built that
qty. I believe and I could be wrong they could produce the plane for that
price.

You are wrong. Building 1000 Bonanzas wouldn't bring the price down to
$150K/each.

If you think it's so doable, not only building 1000 Bonanzas for less than
$150K each (since you want to make a profit too), and you think there are
1000 buyers for Bonanzas that cost only $150K, why not do it? I assure you,
I'll buy a $150K Bonanza from you if you do. I'll bet lots of other people
would too.

Remember, the hypothetical airplane needs to meet or exceed every aspect of
the 2005 A36.

I hate the "if it's such a good idea, why hasn't someone already done it"
argument, but in this case I think it fits.

Pete

"aluckyguess" wrote:
Dan I believe your right.
They should be able to build and sell an A36 for 150,000 depending on
avionics. There really is not that much to an airplane. I may be
missing something like the cost of the insurance, but there just isn't
that much to a single engine plane.

That's not what I meant. Raytheon could not by any stretch of the
imagination build and sell an A36 for $150k. They sell them for nearly
$800k because that's what it takes to make the line profitable. Do you
think Raytheon is making $650k margin on the A36s it sells?

A mfr. has some choices to make when demand dwindles for an already low
volume, high cost product : it can invest in aggressive marketing and
product improvement, it can shave margins as thin as possible hoping to
revive sales, or it can continue to raise margin/unit until demand
finally falls below a supportable level. Raytheon has apparently
(wisely, IMO) chosen the third alternative. The Bonanza is a nearly
60-year old design; there's no sense in plowing development money into
it. Cut the price? How much could they cut? Not enough to get
anywhere near the SR-22 and get some of that market. The A36 is a
"boutique" airplane: it sells on panache to a very narrow market. When
those aging rich guys are gone, the Bo' will go with them.
--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

"Marco Leon" mmleon(at)yahoo.com wrote in message
...
Who do you all think will be the first to come out with a new certified
single-engine, six-place composite (non-aluminium) airframe?

Extra.